Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Even if it’s not a scam, it’s probably not material to anything in the commercial world for a couple of decades

I'm not so sure.

IF, and it's a big IF, they do have a room temperature superconductor, then this will be a major, huge, massively disruptive new tech. If they truly have it then I feel things will change FAST to adopt and push this new tech.

Again, it's a big IF, but expecting it to take decades to play out in the stock market would be overly pessimistic IMHO. Would be interesting to see how such a tech would impact Tesla.

 

[ggr]

Nice! but I hope your first chart means to say price by quarter mile time, not divided by. Otherwise your price/performance gets worse the faster the car is.

The metric is meaningless in any case. 0-60 or Quarter Mile times are very non-linear, since there is a "t^2" component in there somewhere.

 

[Southpasfan]

The metric is meaningless in any case. 0-60 or Quarter Mile times are very non-linear, since there is a "t^2" component in there somewhere.

Well, its actually like "how much would you pay to be faster by a second," buying the Remac is like $2.2M for two seconds faster.

 

[jkirkwood001]

The metric is meaningless in any case. 0-60 or Quarter Mile times are very non-linear, since there is a "t^2" component in there somewhere.

With respect, they're not "meaningless". You could argue they're not fair - like the Koenigsegg only shows it's value above 200 mph - but 0-60 and 1/4-mile have plenty of meaning to any gearhead (like my friend) for the last 60+ years. Whether you like it or not, they are the de facto auto performance measures.

You don't think Elon said "keep improving the Plaid's performance until it's under 2 secs. in the 0-60"? We disagree then.

 

[Stretch2727]

Debated whether to post this but decided it is probably more relevant than all the posts on LK-99.

I believe Cory is the driver behind most of the you tube videos and the exposure Munro gave to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686389895202508800

 

[bruce4000]

Stock price needs some good news like when Hertz announced they were buying Tesla’s out of the blue. Have there been any EV announcements by other rental companies? Hertz has said it’s working out for them so you would think others would have to follow. I recently rented from Hertz and when I made the reservation, it didn’t show an EVs available at that location but I went ahead and rented with Hertz as I was already on the site so good for business even though I didn’t rent an EV.

 

[bkp_duke]

Debated whether to post this but decided it is probably more relevant than all the posts on LK-99.

I believe Cory is the driver behind most of the you tube videos and the exposure Munro gave to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686389895202508800

Wow. Color me shocked. I always thought he was next in line to take over the place.

 

[MC3OZ]

Total cost approx. $120 Million for 9 Megacharger stations each with 8 Tesla stalls and 4 stalls for for competitors.

So roughly $13 Million per Station over $1 Million per stall.

It is likely Megapack batteries are needed at each station and add to the station cost. More stall might be a more optimal use of Megapacks and the grid connection. The capital cost might also include some on-site solar.

I agree with Rob, semis will schedule charges in advance and the sites will operate 24 hours, so eventually high utilisation 50%+ is likely.

 

[dhanson865]

So Gary Black says for 2030 he has TSLA with a 51 price to earnings with zero robots and zero robotaxis. Just based on being a bigger car company than Toyota (He's modeling tesla at 10M units per year in 2030).

He'd rather have to add in the robots, FSD/robotaxi later if it happens than to have to take it out of his model (he doesn't want to guess the timing and will just add it when it happens).

at 3:05

Lets see if this gets more informatives than laughs. The post above was dead even on that count 4 informative, 4 laugh, 8 likes.


at 20:50 Teslaboomermama says her bull case for 2033 is $11,000 a share

* 20 million cars produced (per year implied) (1/6 of the total)
* Energy equal to cars (revenue and profit?) (1/6 of the total)
* FSD twice the value of the first line for cars. (2/6 of the total)
* Humanoid robots also twice the value of the first line for cars. (2/6 of the total)

Total of 6 trillion sales and 3 trillion profits (50% profit margin because a large portion of the profit is from software as a service)


Gary Black and Teslaboomermama share screen time often, I guess Gary is the bear in that pairing.

 

[Tony73]

Total cost approx. $120 Million for 9 Megacharger stations each with 8 Tesla stalls and 4 stalls for for competitors.

So roughly $13 Million per Station over $1 Million per stall.

It is likely Megapack batteries are needed at each station and add to the station cost. More stall might be a more optimal use of Megapacks and the grid connection. The capital cost might also include some on-site solar.

I agree with Rob, semis will schedule charges in advance and the sites will operate 24 hours, so eventually high utilisation 50%+ is likely.

I’m surprised they are so expensive. They probably use the same charger module as the superchargers which themselves are similar to the chargers in the car. I wouldn’t expect thicker cables and cooling to add that much more cost.

From the point of view of the grid, an 8 stall mega charging station should look about the same as a 50 stall v3 supercharging station and Tesla has quite a few of those mostly running without storage

 

[KBF]

"Russian Shill, Putin's bootlicker" Elon Musk continues to shower Ukraine with 500 Powerwalls and 40k Starlink terminals.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686004128655298560

Actions speak louder than words taken out of context and/or interpreted without nuance...

Though I guess this could be in the Ukraine War thread instead...

 

[MC3OZ]

I’m surprised they are so expensive. They probably use the same charger module as the superchargers which themselves are similar to the chargers in the car. I wouldn’t expect thicker cables and cooling to add that much more cost.

From the point of view of the grid, an 8 stall mega charging station should look about the same as a 50 stall v3 supercharging station and Tesla has quite a few of those mostly running without storage

I've been pondering the split up of costs.

IMO 12 stalls may only cost $3 Million, that is $10 Million worth of solar and batteries.

For 12 stalls around 6-10 Megapacks is my guess, the rest of the money is solar?

 

[MP3Mike]

From the point of view of the grid, an 8 stall mega charging station should look about the same as a 50 stall v3 supercharging station and Tesla has quite a few of those mostly running without storage

I think that 8 Megachargers plus 4, probably 350kW, chargers is 7.4MW. That would be like ~20 V3 cabinets with ~80 stalls. (Assuming no onsite battery storage.)

 

[dhanson865]

source tweet

 

[heltok]

Update on LK99 odds from my favorite news source, odds are down a little

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686586497494052864

Another important potential future use case for LK99:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686417374306852864

 

[MC3OZ]

But - even if this is true - then I would expect at least 10-years before real products, and 20-years before serious scale. By which time the bulk of the global energy transformation to non-fossil and to BEV is over imho.

Even if true, room temperature SCs don't do anything for Fossil Fuels.

(Assuming room temperature SCs are real)

For transmission we need to distinguish between lower lines losses and lower capital costs to build transmission. Most of the cost savings may come from having smaller diameter lighter cables. It probably reduces the cost of transformers, which helps long distance HVAC and HVDC, Due to lower losses there may not be the same need to step up the voltage?

Higher voltage towers need to be taller, I'm not sure how the cost savings would play out. Installing higher capacity lines on existing towers is the obvious cost saving.

But it needs to be very cheap and available in very high volumes before we can consider using it for transmission, and the superconducting effect has to be proven capable of traversing long distances.

Should LK99 work and be moderately affordable, Tesla is capable of adopting sensible uses of the material in the vehicle, energy, compute and robotics products. It it doesn't work, or isn't affordable, then nothing changes.

 

[Thekiwi]

Debated whether to post this but decided it is probably more relevant than all the posts on LK-99.

I believe Cory is the driver behind most of the you tube videos and the exposure Munro gave to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686389895202508800

He definitely seems like the more focused, knowledgeable one - especially as Munro seems to have taken up day drinking perhaps.

 

[Cobbler]

Debated whether to post this but decided it is probably more relevant than all the posts on LK-99.

I believe Cory is the driver behind most of the you tube videos and the exposure Munro gave to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686389895202508800

Cory would be a great asset to Tesla. Expert in lean design and manufacturing

 

[JusRelax]

First economic indicators just came in for July, and they're all below expectations:

View attachment 961370

So is that good, or bad, this week...?

Sorry, I couldn't answer this until the market told me the answer. Apparently we ended red today and futures are heavily red, so it's plainly obvious to me now that the market thinks these numbers are bad.

I won't be able to answer if you ask me why the market thinks it's bad though...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Has this article been debunked?

Tesla’s secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints

About a decade ago, Tesla rigged the dashboard readouts in its electric cars to provide “rosy” projections of how far owners can drive before needing to recharge, a source told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

Do you have pointers?