Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mardak]

$7.5B for EV chargers is not from the IRA, it is from the BIL

Anybody know why new supercharger cabinets (still V3 but new part number 1908800-00-A) have a "IRA V3 SUPERCHARGER CABINET" label? Maybe it's actually referring to Bipartisan Infrastructure Law's National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (BIL / NEVI), as there doesn't seem to have been much discussion about Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) potentially improving tax incentives for installing Superchargers.

What changes might have been needed for V3 cabinets to qualify for credits/funding? Perhaps related to the power requirements that V4 would presumably satisfy but not ready to deploy, so update V3 in the meantime?

 

[dhanson865]

I object to shortcuts. Geofencing seems to me to be a shortcut with obvious limitations that don’t solve the problems that need to be solved. It’s akin to using an ICE platform to make an EV - yeah, works but has limitations that keeps it from being compelling enough to solve the larger problem - making it compelling on enough metrics, including pricing, to get everyone to buy one.

I just had a several hour debate with my father, who is getting to an age where he’s concerned driving will become unavailable to him for many age related reasons. Geofencing isn’t going to be enough for him for many reasons that may or may not apply to everyone his age.

Tesla is trying to solve for everyone, not just a specific group of people. The mission is for the world, not for people in select cities.

How about if the "geofence" was really really huge? Like say the first fence is the 5 lowest population density states (skipping Alaska for now)

• Wyoming
• Montana
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• New Mexico

Plus any interstate or highway section in other states that are in a cell that has population density less than North Dakota's average (would open up the entire interstate highway system outside of cities in several other states).

And of course for those northern states have the AI not willing to take over when there are unplowed roads in snow season.

Then later add the next 4 lowest population dense states and any cells in states not already added that are lower population density than Kansas average (again adding cells in several other states)

• Idaho
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• Kansas

and move on in waves of geofencing like that?

 

[Buckminster]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4?mod=hp_lead_pos7
Paywall
V long, sophisticated infographics
BoD also have some investments in other Musk industries - major crime?
Elon doing drugs all over the place according to "people close to him"

Peak FUD?

 

[cheqsgravity]

How about if the "geofence" was really really huge? Like say the first fence is the 5 lowest population density states (skipping Alaska for now)

• Wyoming
• Montana
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• New Mexico

Plus any interstate or highway section in other states that are in a cell that has population density less than North Dakota's average (would open up the entire interstate highway system outside of cities in several other states).

And of course for those northern states have the AI not willing to take over when there are unplowed roads in snow season.

Then later add the next 4 lowest population dense states and any cells in states not already added that are lower population density than Kansas average (again adding cells in several other states)

• Idaho
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• Kansas

and move on in waves of geofencing like that?

Geofencing like this can also cause issues. A potential issue:
right now EM already has mentioned that the training data is over-engineered for SF and needs more training data in a rainy env. Geo fencing will cause similar training data issues. Most of the platform for universal training has already been established. All that is needed is v12 needs to be rolled out to a wider audience and training will grow organically across the US.
Another issue could be that once a behavior is "learned" by the AI/NNs for a given geo-fenced area, we don't know the impact of unlearning it or re-learning it when more areas w/ diff rules are added.
I feel that its best to apply the learning for an area all at once.

Others have been geofencing because that is the only way they can solve this problem via coding/heuristics. They are not using NNs. So by geo-fencing, they are limiting the rules & scope and thus the coding effort to get something running so 'show' progress. But scaling beyond the geo-fenced areas will increasing become an intractable and exponentially complex problem.

 

[2daMoon]

That's fine with me over the next year. As long as it stays above 133 I'm happy. Keep your expectations low to maintain happiness.

Just to clarify, an SP of 400 is higher than 133, right?

If so, then okay, I'm jiggy with that.

 

[Buckminster]

Model Y $36k and FSD transfer confirmed to be coming imminently. What are you waiting for?

Cheapest inventory MY in UK is $57k...

Have US prices bottomed? May FOMC is 1st May so Q2 will likely benefit from more affordable prices early on in the quarter.

 

[Hiline]

Just read some reports that US GDP is likely going to be stagnant in 2024 - most forecasts range from around -1% to +1%. The global economy is also slowing down this year with disruptions to trade from the military conflicts. I think TSLA price recovery may take a bit longer. $300 is nowhere in sight until 2025.

If Tesla expects diminished demand, they should produce more spare parts to reduce cost of ownership. Insurance on Tesla vehicles is too damn high.

 

[Hiline]

Model Y $36k and FSD transfer confirmed to be coming imminently. What are you waiting for?

Cheapest inventory MY in UK is $57k...

Have US prices bottomed? May FOMC is 1st May so Q2 will likely benefit from more affordable prices early on in the quarter.

I really hope Tesla does away with price cuts. Most potential buyers are counting on further price reductions and are therefore not buying Tesla cars at the moment. These cars have already got the reputation of fastest depreciation. The Model Y LR went from $63k at the end of 2022 to $45k at the end of 2023. This was a 30% price reduction. If someone doesn't buy a Tesla after the drastic price cuts in 2023, it is not because of price.

 

[Ellec]

That's fine with me over the next year. As long as it stays above 133 I'm happy. Keep your expectations low to maintain happiness.

I wouldn't mind if TSLA stays under $250 for the next 12-24 months while they ramp CT and batteries as well as introduce the next-gen vehicle, great opportunity (which I will be taking) to accumulate a decent position, if you can, before the next growth wave.

 

[Buckminster]

Some alternative threads

EV and Battery Credits MY for $36k with FSD transfer and before state credits

Project Redwood (Compact Crossover)

Project Dojo - the SaaS Product?

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Now advertising on X for the first time (Japan)

Elon Compensation Package

Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

FSD V12 (end to end AI) Actually Smart Summon coming?

Tesla VR / AR Karpathy provides his Vision Pro blessing

FSD Transfer Confirmed

Delaware to Texas Incorporation

V2G in a robotaxi world CT VPP

4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors CATL equipmemt

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754010017320301035

Healthiest Elon has looked for years?

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753987459988242453

 

[Maarten]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754010017320301035

Healthiest Elon has looked for years?

Someone is pickpocketing him!

 

[adiggs]

I've driven over 45K miles on FSD on highways and it's never tried to get in the left lane except where it thinks the route has changed by an Interstate exit. This appears to be a map issue because it's only some exits. It does move to the left lane to pass people but it moves right as soon as it detects a car approaching in the rear. It even gives a message "changing lanes to get out of the passing lane". Interesting that experiences are so different.

This is my FSD experience on interstate driving where I also have 1000s of miles of experience over the last 7 years, though not 45k - that's impressive!

However I've got a 5 lane state highway I drive regularly, and the car just insists on staying in the left lane. It even uses the explanation "Changing lanes to stay out of the right lane" when its making those lane changes.

As if that's not aggravating enough, with far too high of a frequency, it will initiate that lane change as somebody is overtaking to pass - even when the lane in front of me is open as far as the eye can see. Not so close that its actively a danger, but close enough that it sure looks like I'm changing lanes to block their progress

Minimize Lane Changes might be helping - I turn it on, though it still wants to move over to the left, but maybe not as quick to make that decision? I've cancelled FSD many times on that section of the drive just because of that lane changing behavior.

 

[unk45]

Would be helpful if you were less cryptic, honestly don´t understand what you mean. Who is the aggressive, flawed immigrant???

Sorry, it is Elon. The description was meant to suggest some if the never mentioned basis for unjustified criticism from certain politicians and politically influenced judges.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone is pickpocketing him!

... and her name is Kathaleen.

 

[MC3OZ]

These are my thoughts on how an unboxed process could work:- "Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process

 

[aubreymcfato]

Sending a few tweets just takes a few minutes, it's not going to affect his work on Tesla in any meaningful way. Besides, he probably sent them when he's in the bathroom...

It affects TSLA (and probably Tesla, indirectly) if is feeds the next news cycles... Without go into the details of what he says, we should at least acknowledge that the simple facts he's expressing political views ferquently and doing polls about impeachment of any political reps does affects his image to people all around the world. Or you don't think that this things are being translated like everywhere? Sometimes I find Musk in the local newspaper, for whatever thing he has done lately. If people think that his tweets are just a thing on X they are delusional. This is 2024, everything percolates everywhere, without context, and badly translated.

 

[Thekiwi]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4?mod=hp_lead_pos7
Paywall
V long, sophisticated infographics
BoD also have some investments in other Musk industries - major crime?
Elon doing drugs all over the place according to "people close to him"

Peak FUD?

This link for me at least gave free access to the whole article:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-tesla-money-drugs-board-61af9ac4

Really piling on the scrutiny of the “independent directors” and alleged lack of proper board performance.

- Details incidents where board members were doing illegal drugs with Musk.

- fleshes out more personal and business relationships between the independent directors and Musk.

- Also Larry Ellison and others suggested to Musk that he go into rehab in 2022 after his drug use got worse (timing seems to coincide with his “change” in twitter posting behavior).

- Also introduces the fact that Tesla May be in breach of NASDAQ listing requirements due to lack in the number of independent directors. If they were to receive a breach notice from NASDAQ, Tesla would still have 12 months to rectify the situation before potential delisting.

- identifies two board members who left for dissatisfaction from unsatisfactory board oversight, and their attempts to rectify were rebuffed.

 

[hobbes]

Our European registration stats wiki is filling up nicely again. Even with the UK and Germany still missing, January is already a new record.
@Troy found that with the expanding European market the countries we had combined in the "others" entry represented almost 9% of the totals, so we decided to add individual entries for Finland and Poland in 2024. The overview for 2023 can now be found here. Enjoy (at least if you´re a data nerd ).

 

[mongo]

Really piling on the scrutiny of the “independent directors” and alleged lack of proper board performance.

Ohhh "alledged" performance issues...

- Also introduces the fact that Tesla May be in breach of NASDAQ listing requirements due to lack in the number of independent directors. If they were to receive a breach notice from NASDAQ, Tesla would still have 12 months to rectify the situation before potential delisting.

Seriously? Combining "fact" and "may"? Are they or aren't they? Here's a hint, the majority board has been in place over 12 months other than with JB replacing Hiro last year.

Want to research yourself (something WSJ seems to have not bothered to do since they can't tell if Tesla is compliant):
The Board: Corporate Governance | Tesla Investor Relations
The Rules: Nasdaq Listing Center