Unveiling on Oct 17th

[ummgood]

In February of one year I bought a new Honda. 6 months later, the new models hit, and they now had a rear facing camera and passenger side camera as standard (something that was a lot more money previously), and also featured a large center display, a vastly improved media system, as well as multiple USB ports for drivers and passengers.

Would it have been reasonable for me to be angry and complain that Honda had obsoleted my vehicle? Should I have expected to be able to upgrade my vehicle to include all of those new features - should I have expected to be able to put a new dashboard in with a big screen, run wiring... install new body panels with integrated cameras?

You use the term "upgradeable", but Tesla has never to my knowledge stated that the car's hardware is upgradeable - only the software systems. There is a lot you can do with software, but one thing you obviously cannot do is upgrade physical systems using 1's and 0's. It seems very unreasonable to me to expect that older hardware in integrated systems will be upgradeable in the same fluid manner that software is. Moreover, Tesla is not taking something away from you - they are delivering what you paid for. I totally understand the disappointment, and I feel for you. However, your expectation is not one you would harbor for any other automotive purchase, so why this one?

Here is the difference that I see.

With traditional auto makers (I know that Tesla isn't traditional) people know a new model is coming around the beginning of fall. If you buy a car that is the current model and they are coming out with a new car in 4 months most likely you know about it. It is probably in magazines, on the actual website for the company, and the dealers know about it way in advance. Then that is why you usually get a discount on the previous type of car during this overlap. With Tesla they are way more secretive. People don't know and cannot make an educated decision if they want the new model or the existing model. They have no way of knowing until the day it is presented to the public. So someone might buy a 135k car today without knowing tomorrow that the car has all these new features they want.

I think that is where some of the angst is coming from.

 

[ttupper92618]

Here is the difference that I see.

With traditional auto makers (I know that Tesla isn't traditional) people know a new model is coming around the beginning of fall. If you buy a car that is the current model and they are coming out with a new car in 4 months most likely you know about it. It is probably in magazines, on the actual website for the company, and the dealers know about it way in advance. Then that is why you usually get a discount on the previous type of car during this overlap. With Tesla they are way more secretive. People don't know and cannot make an educated decision if they want the new model or the existing model. They have no way of knowing until the day it is presented to the public. So someone might buy a 135k car today without knowing tomorrow that the car has all these new features they want.

I think that is where some of the angst is coming from.

I don't disagree, and it makes sense on an emotive level. But it's not rational. We all know that sometime soon Apple is going to obsolete the MacBook Pro we just dropped $3000 on. We know that. We don't know when, and Apple certainly isn't going to tell us. And it just so happens that you may buy one two months before the new one drops, and yes, that does tend to chap one's rear end. BUT, Apple doesn't discount the machine you just bought, nor do they promise to turn your now obsolete MacBook into the fancy new one.

This is NOT different. Although I totally understand the feelings, they aren't rational or fair.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

We all know that sometime soon Apple is going to obsolete the MacBook Pro we just dropped $3000 on. We know that. We don't know when, and Apple certainly isn't going to tell us.

October 27th. Apple plans to launch new Macs at an October 27 event

 

[theboom1]

No, I love driving, especially on long trips ... and I hate to be a passenger - whenever it is with a human driver or otherwise.


Luckily my driving habits/uses seldom put me into this situations, so no it isn't worth a lot to me to be able to turn on autonomous mode this few times.

I am right there with you man. I love driving.

I've been saying for quite a while now that if we wanted to solve the traffic and death problems that affect so many people without completely destroying what so many people love/need to do (drive) we could have the computer in shadow mode protecting us when we choose to drive. Many people on this site have basically laughed at my idea saying it will never work. Now your great god on earth Elon has used the term and has said the computer collecting data and determining when it could intervene is possible. So now that your god has said it, it's fact based on the way some people act on here.

Anyway Elon said that even when the autopilot is off, the computer will be in shadow mode seeing when it could intervene to correct something. Many people want to keep being able to drive. When we get to the point where we have some people that are getting uncomfortable with humans driving and want to ban it, we can just have it so the computer does intervene and makes it so we don't crash. It will be just as safe because it's the same system.

 

[diamond.g]

October 27th. Apple plans to launch new Macs at an October 27 event

Probably just the notebooks, they have neglected the Mac Pro for the past 3 years? It is also likely they are going to discontinue the MacBook Air 11" model (at least that is what the rumors are saying).

 

[Garlan Garner]

You expected the Model 3 to have Level 5 autonomy?

You are totally missing my point altogether.

I'll say what I said yet again. I expect for the M3 to have some level of autonomy when it is released. Period. I don't care what level it is.

No matter what level it is...It should have no barring on the design of the dashboard. Just like the MS dashboard isn't changing because these cameras and radars are being installed.

What makes no sense to me is the comment that because L5 exists....the dashboard will change. That makes absolutely no sense.

 

[mhan00]

No, I love driving, especially on long trips ... and I hate to be a passenger - whenever it is with a human driver or otherwise.


Luckily my driving habits/uses seldom put me into this situations, so no it isn't worth a lot to me to be able to turn on autonomous mode this few times.

Lol. You lucky bastard. I'm in the South Bay of LA, so Everytime I have to go downtown or head to Irvine I inevitably hit stop and go traffic at some point.

 

[diamond.g]

You are totally missing my point altogether.

I'll say what I said yet again. I expect for the M3 to have some level of autonomy when it is released. Period. I don't care what level it is.

No matter what level it is...It should have no barring on the design of the dashboard. Just like the MS dashboard isn't changing because these cameras and radars are being installed.

What makes no sense to me is the comment that because L5 exists....the dashboard will change. That makes absolutely no sense.

Ah, okay I think we got our wires crossed. I was saying that it is possible that there is no separate IC because a L5 car doesn't need one. (nor would it need a pedals and a steering wheel).

Elon said Reveal 2 would allow for their interior choose to make more sense. (I know he said, something something spaceship, lol).

Do I want a separate IC like the Model S? Yes. Will L5 autonomy alleviate my gripe about no separate IC, maybe depends on when we can actually use L5.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty clear that the wider world is not picking up on the huge-ness of this turning point. Exciting stuff.

 

[sillydriver]

Comment One. In the Design Studio, Tesla is selling “Full Self-Driving Capability” (when software and regulatory approval are ready) for an extra $3k. I believe Tesla is sure that the new sensor suite and its wiring harness are adequate for that job (and this seems right to me) but I don’t see how they can be sure at this point that the Titan-based CPU/GPU hardware is adequate to run the ultimate full-Level-5 software that can do what they promise in the Design Studio and pass regulatory approval, something that would require that the car handle pretty much all of the vast set of different oddball circumstances that a human could handle and which occasionally come up while driving. So I believe the commitment that the $3k actually buys you includes a CPU upgrade down the road if necessary. And I have read, perhaps on Electrek, that the CPU module is accessible and upgradable.

If this is right, then the company’s $3k commitment will be met even if Level 5 is several to many years down the road and requires an upgrade to a third generation CPU. Thus the “unexpected” part of the announcement, which is full Level 5 autonomy, might not involve an actual jump in the technology beyond the Level 3 or 4 autonomy that was expected for AP2.0. It might just be a commitment to make the Level 5 processing hardware, whenever it comes, plug-compatible.



Comment Two. If there is going to an Uber-like “Tesla Network” then there is one more important piece of hardware that needs to be provided which they did not mention: a set of cameras with full internal coverage of the car. Only then can the owner actually determine who, among a series of passengers, threw up on or slashed the seats. It’s a surveillance world: welcome to it.



Comment Three. The announcement is a reminder of what our current cars with AP1.0 can never do, which is the stuff in the “enhanced autopilot” and “autosteer+” descriptions on the autopilot page on Tesla’s website. Much of this we know, like lane changes without driver input, but it looks like we will never get the ability to “navigate tighter, more complex roads”. Personally I like driving, and I bought my Model S for its smoothness, performance and instant response, and for the whole electric thing in general, so this is not a problem for me.


Conclusion. I feel perfectly placed owning a 1 ½ year old P85DL, which I can upgrade a couple years down the road or whenever significant new software capabilities have actually been delivered, and when the whole car design has been further evolved with Tesla’s continuous improvement.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I've never heard of Tesla saying they would retrofit new AP hardware. I think it was just wishful thinking on your part.

I think that its important to understand how people feel with this announcement. Although Tesla didn't promise retrofits....its understandable that recent owners would be upset.

The problem that I believe Tesla has is this.....they don't alert their customers of what they are doing.

On a standard ICE car - buyers don't have to be alerted because there is a known and understood section of time that their cars are upgraded and updated. That's annually. Many people upgrade their cars based on the year. I don't believe it would surprise or upset anyone if a 2017 model Corvette has many more changes and upgrades than the 2016 model.

The problem as expressed by many Tesla customers is that they don't have the option of ever knowing if a better version of their current model will be upgraded....lets say.....tomorrow morning.....to either a
* better version for the same price or a lesser price
* better color choice added to the menu
* upgraded battery
* upgraded AP
* anything.

Of course some people like Tesla for the reason that they don't wait to put out their latest and technology.

I understand the frustration of the customers of Tesla because..... If I just dropped over $100K for a car and in the following week....the same $100K+ car is upgraded with an option I was dreaming of and/or waiting for.
Tesla owners - I do understand if you are frustrated and/or upset. You have a right to be.

 

[N5329K]

I am right there with you man. I love driving.

I've been saying for quite a while now that if we wanted to solve the traffic and death problems that affect so many people without completely destroying what so many people love/need to do (drive) we could have the computer in shadow mode protecting us when we choose to drive. Many people on this site have basically laughed at my idea saying it will never work. Now your great god on earth Elon has used the term and has said the computer collecting data and determining when it could intervene is possible. So now that your god has said it, it's fact based on the way some people act on here.

Anyway Elon said that even when the autopilot is off, the computer will be in shadow mode seeing when it could intervene to correct something. Many people want to keep being able to drive. When we get to the point where we have some people that are getting uncomfortable with humans driving and want to ban it, we can just have it so the computer does intervene and makes it so we don't crash. It will be just as safe because it's the same system.

I mostly agree. Not about the "god" part, but a safety system that remains on in the background seems like it might be a good approach. Mooney Aircraft used to have something they called the "constant copilot" that kept the wings level unless you pressed a button to (momentarily) take over and maneuver. It ruined the control feel of the airplane, which already had heavy controls, but I imagine it kept a few bad pilots from pranging.
A Tesla Vision system that kept its "eyes" open for conflicts and first advised, then actively maneuvered to safety, or braked, would not be entirely terrible and it would keep a few bad drivers out of trouble, and even fewer good drivers safe from the bad ones. This system would live inside the driver's decision cycle to recognize and avoid conflicts before the human at the wheel could see them.
I wouldn't buy it as an option, though.
Robin

 

[Garlan Garner]

October 27th. Apple plans to launch new Macs at an October 27 event

Yeah Yeah, but Apple isn't releasing a $100K plus product. That makes all the difference in the world. You could probably return a Mac to the store even if you have had it for a month.

Try to return a $100K+ Tesla MS.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Ah, okay I think we got our wires crossed. I was saying that it is possible that there is no separate IC because a L5 car doesn't need one. (nor would it need a pedals and a steering wheel).

Elon said Reveal 2 would allow for their interior choose to make more sense. (I know he said, something something spaceship, lol).

Do I want a separate IC like the Model S? Yes. Will L5 autonomy alleviate my gripe about no separate IC, maybe depends on when we can actually use L5.

What is an IC?

 

[MP3Mike]

What is an IC?

Instrument Cluster. (i.e. the stuff behind the steering wheel.)

 

[Garlan Garner]

Instrument Cluster. (i.e. the stuff behind the steering wheel.)

Oh ok. Thanks.

I do want a separate IC though. Just like the MS.

I want what I want....not simply what I need. LOL

 

[Adrian]

Germany is criticizing current auto-lane-changing because 16-foot range of ultrasonic cannot detect a speeding car from far behind. With this new hardware, it can see 250 meters or 820 feet 360 degrees which is better than a LIDAR range.

Still not enough for German Autobahns, where average speeds exceed 100 mph regularly. And this happens:

Drivers are trained to account for this, the cars are not - yet. 250 meters (i thought it was 100?) pass by really quickly at those speeds - if a Model S were to attempt to move to the outside lane (which it would earlier than the car in the video does it) in a situation like this death would be the only outcome.

 

[Tam]

Still not enough for German Autobahns, where average speeds exceed 100 mph regularly.

You are right about 100 meters as corrected by MP3Mike: All directions do not get an equaled 250 meter range was further broken down on the Autopilot page which was not explained in the blog. Rearward Side Looking Camera can see 100 meters or 300 feet or almost a football field.

So how far back would you want your car to detect a speeding bullet car from behind?

I think the furthest Google LIDAR car can detect is 200 meters (600 feet) or 2 football field lengths.

 

[Adrian]

Well. Three seconds at 250 km/h (which isn't that uncommon,) is 208 meters. You can do a lot of braking in three seconds. Add two seconds of reaction and you land at 347 meters (yes, i know the distance would be less since the speed decreases) but with some safety margin i'd say at LEAST 350 meters, preferably 500.

 

[Tam]

Well. Three seconds at 250 km/h (which isn't that uncommon,) is 208 meters. You can do a lot of braking in three seconds. Add two seconds of reaction and you land at 347 meters (yes, i know the distance would be less since the speed decreases) but with some safety margin i'd say at LEAST 350 meters, preferably 500.

May be a 500 meter sensor will be in the future soon.

But that means today's autonomous technology can reduce accidents, injuries and deaths but cannot eliminate them.