VIN Assignment

[Eugene k.]

This is the most interesting current mystery, in my mind. We've had VIN assignments in the past several days ranging from 70xx (or lower) all the way up to 99xx (soon to be higher, obviously). That's several thousand cars assigned in the past few days, which follows a long period of few if any VIN assignments. Presumably the cars in the 7xxx were made some time ago, yet got held up from delivery for some reason. Battery pack? (This assumes that the 99xx vehicles have been manufactured, as opposed to being merely a Twinkle in Tesla's Eye, with hopes of making and delivering them locally in CA in the waning days of Q1.) Going to be a really interesting three weeks, operationally, to be sure.

As best as I can tell, it works like this.

They have several concurrent "queues", each for a different combination of color and wheels (18" or 19").

Every once in a while, they start a new batch of VINs. The batch is usually 1500-2000 long. It is divided into colors/wheels groups, maybe 100-200 in each combo, depending on popularity (there may be 200 VINs assigned to blue cars with 18" aero wheels, but only 50 to black cars with 19" wheels.) Each group goes into a different queue, and cars from different queues are made concurrently (interleaved or made on separate assembly lines).

So, if their newest batch starts at 83xx, you could have the VIN 8500 (midnight silver/aero), the VIN 8950 (red/aero), and the VIN 9850 (blue/sport), all come out of the factory within an hour of each other.

This batch was only started in early March (which is why we don't even have any pictures of 8363+ in the wild. And earliest assignments from this batch were all on the East Coast. It may be another week before anyone sees any of these cars in person.)

Furthermore, if the previous batch started at 6650, you could have one of the last black/aero of the previous batch (671x) and one of the first blue/sport of the current batch (986x) produced and assigned within a short interval from each other.

And there are signs that queues are not even synchronized any more. We saw a 94xx (current batch, midnight silver/sport) assigned on 3/3, but, as of today (3/11), it still does not look like the pearl queue is completely done with numbers from the previous batch. (There are gaps in reported VINs around 75xx and 83xx, right where those missing pearl white 3's should be.)

 

[Matias]

Tesla Temporarily Suspended Model 3 Production in Late February

 

[Indy3]

Dear Tesla:

We love you and your eclectic founder, even if he has a terrible singing voice, so please bring on another record week of VIN assignments. The midnight blue and the red cars are beautiful, but how about a good run of white and black model 3s this week? While I am asking, if you really love me, I sure would like a White/Sport Model 3 with VIN 10000. I mean, I would be content with any VIN at this point, but 10,000 would be pretty cool to this numbers nerd.

Very truly yours,

Guy who is constantly refreshing his reservation page

 

[LV Acrobat]

wow 11100 VIN assigned to someone today? Just popped up on spreadsheet.

EDIT: Also its for a CA non-owner...

 

[avoigt]

wow 11100 VIN assigned to someone today? Just popped up on spreadsheet.

EDIT: Also its for a CA non-owner...

Its VIN 11155 , wow impressive jump
Model 3 Invites

 

[Foxhound199]

I'm still pretty confused about what exactly the VIN assignment means. At first, I thought they assigned it when the cars had finished production. But immediately after receiving my VIN last Wednesday, I was informed my car was "near the end of its production". As of today, that's still where it is. That timeline seems a bit odd to me.

 

[Nurkbonis]

Ya, I think it's pretty hard to crack exactly what stage of production VIN assignment happens at. Perhaps your car has built but is in line for quality control checks, etc., so it's technically been built, but there are later steps that have not been finalized? Who knows.

I'm still pretty confused about what exactly the VIN assignment means. At first, I thought they assigned it when the cars had finished production. But immediately after receiving my VIN last Wednesday, I was informed my car was "near the end of its production". As of today, that's still where it is. That timeline seems a bit odd to me.

 

[Eugene k.]

Its VIN 11155 , wow impressive jump
Model 3 Invites

And that means that they have just started the next batch (10061 to 11322).

Which should not be too surprising, because it means that, even if all queues are synchronized, they were done with the previous batch (1700 VINs) in something like 9 days, which gives us their weekly production rate of 1700*(7/9) ~ 1320 cars/week.

And, if the pearl white queue is still slow or stopped (since we still have no pearl white VINs from the last batch and no pearl white assignments since 3/8), their production rate is even lower, maybe 1400*(7/9) ~ 1080/week.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Its VIN 11155 , wow impressive jump
Model 3 Invites

Just to get this out of the way:

let me be the 1st to second guessing the validity of 111xx because we haven't see more VINs in this range, by tomorrow we will start to get antsy, and by Thur the silence of lack of new 11xxx will be deafening, and by next week we will have forgotten about the whole thing when 11xxx VINs become common place.

 

[CarbonFree]

Which should not be too surprising, because it means that, even if all queues are synchronized, they were done with the previous queue (1700 VINs) in something like 9 days, which gives us their weekly production rate of 1700*(7/9) ~ 1320 cars/week.

Say, how do we know that all VINs from a particular queue will eventually be assigned to a car produced during the current batch? The last time we saw a high watermark VIN (8235), lower VIN numbers were assigned for at least five weeks afterwards (and, in fact, are still being assigned). Those lower VINs weren't assigned during the factory shutdown, which leads me to believe that those cars were produced far after the high watermark VIN was assigned.

 

[fluxemag]

Got my VIN last week and was told my MVPA would be sent Thursday or Friday morning. Still don't have it, the phone goes straight to voicemail, which of course is also full.

 

[suwaneedad]

And that means that they have just started the next batch (10061 to 11322).

Which should not be too surprising, because it means that, even if all queues are synchronized, they were done with the previous batch (1700 VINs) in something like 9 days, which gives us their weekly production rate of 1700*(7/9) ~ 1320 cars/week.

And, if the pearl white queue is still slow or stopped (since we still have no pearl white VINs from the last batch and no pearl white assignments since 3/8), their production rate is even lower, maybe 1400*(7/9) ~ 1080/week.

Regardless of which rate is correct, these are markedly higher than recent times, when ~700/wk was the best educated guess. Looks like the shutdown in late Feb did enable process improvements and potentially the new robots from Germany to be installed. Very impressive improvement in production rate, by all appearances.

 

[suwaneedad]

I'm still pretty confused about what exactly the VIN assignment means. At first, I thought they assigned it when the cars had finished production. But immediately after receiving my VIN last Wednesday, I was informed my car was "near the end of its production". As of today, that's still where it is. That timeline seems a bit odd to me.

It's likely (in my mind) that VIN assignment meant something different in Jan/Feb than it may mean today. At some stage, VIN assignment will presumably mean that your vehicle is about to be produced. Today it may mean that it is in production. In Feb it more likely meant that the vehicle was done and was awaiting transport. And so on.

 

[Foxhound199]

It's likely (in my mind) that VIN assignment meant something different in Jan/Feb than it may mean today. At some stage, VIN assignment will presumably mean that your vehicle is about to be produced. Today it may mean that it is in production. In Feb it more likely meant that the vehicle was done and was awaiting transport. And so on.

Well, got some clarification. It's now on a truck to WA.

 

[Ch0000f]

Well, got some clarification. It's now on a truck to WA.

Howdy fellow Washingtonian! How did you get your confirmation? I called Tesla and they told me they were going to ping my SA (or whatever we're calling them). Said he should call me within 48 hours (not holding my breath though). I configured 2/22. VIN last Friday.

 

[garrity]

my sister's stats:

reserved 3/31 waiting in line before San Diego Store even opened
configured 2/14
VIN 93XX assigned March 11
picking up in SF or Fremont

• Enhanced Autopilot
• Long Range Battery
• Rear Wheel Drive
• Black Interior
• Solid Black Paint
• Premium Upgrades
• 19’’ Sport Wheels

I'm still waiting for my invite

 

[Eugene k.]

Say, how do we know that all VINs from a particular queue will eventually be assigned to a car produced during the current batch? The last time we saw a high watermark VIN (8235), lower VIN numbers were assigned for at least five weeks afterwards (and, in fact, are still being assigned). Those lower VINs weren't assigned during the factory shutdown, which leads me to believe that those cars were produced far after the high watermark VIN was assigned.

In your example, 8235 was at the tail end of the batch (which began somewhere around 6600 and ended at 8362), since it happened to be the last color/wheels combo in the batch (pearl 19".) And I consider it a bit suspicious because it showed up on 2/5, a full week before anyone reported any other assignments from the same batch.

In my model, they could go on producing cars with VINs as low as 6700 all the way through March 1 and it would be consistent with the theory. And there could've been some stragglers from the previous batch, down to 4800, making their way out of the factory for some time after they made the 8235 (there's apparently some reordering happening after the production stage, but on the scale of a few days, not weeks.)

 

[MountainRatMat]

my sister's stats:

Is she single?

 

[Foxhound199]

Howdy fellow Washingtonian! How did you get your confirmation? I called Tesla and they told me they were going to ping my SA (or whatever we're calling them). Said he should call me within 48 hours (not holding my breath though). I configured 2/22. VIN last Friday.

My ISA let me know.

 

[garrity]

Is she single?

LOL , No she's married and her husband who at first was against getting a TESLA is very much looking forward to getting the Model 3