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Why I'm Not Opting for Full Self-Driving

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Missile Toad,

Godspeed in your quest.

Now why are you interrupting my thread with this again?
I'm offering that since the software writing process, at Tesla, is opaque, and the manual writing process is considerably more transparent -- that one can judge the extent that the FSD is vaporware (or killerware) based on the care taken in writing straightforward English in a manual. In other words, I'm using the ability to write a correct manual as a proxy for software development at Tesla.
 
This is my first Tesla (waiting on 7 seat model y delivery). With the advances I've seen in the beta videos and my probability of keeping the car for 8 years I paid for the $8k FSD. We'll see if it was worth it.

I'm also a techie that likes playing with the latest and greatest tech toys and software. So this is right up my alley. Plus the wife approved and advocated for buying it so how could I say no (and it's going to be my car).
 
I'm inching closer to yielding to temptation and buying a 3 or S. Like all prospective new owners, I'm grappling with the FSD option, and have decided against.

I realize many of you sprang for FSD, so I hope I'm wrong! But here fwiw is my reasoning for saving the $10K. If I'm missing something, please let me know.

The FSD pitch hints that the X factor is regulatory approval. This implies that the tech is ready - or close to it. And while many quibble with Consumer Report's take, I don't know many Tesla fans who'd claim FSB is anywhere near ready to do anything close to self-driving anytime soon. Even cute narrow novelty components like Summon seem pretty dodgy.

As for regulatory approval, I can't see it, ever, outside major highways. Balance in the ongoing war of urban drivers vs pedestrians hinges on the threat of being run over by a multi-ton hunk of metal. If urban pedestrians can stop a car cold by stepping in front of it - or waving an umbrella in its path - pedestrians "win" and driving no longer works. Even more problematic, FSD will surely choose rear-end collision over running over, say, brazen kids on skateboards. You could try to ticket jaywalkers, but that's already proven uncontrollable. So I don't see FSD in cities without massive infrastructure tweaks (e.g. raised or lowered roadways).

So...the tech's not close, regulation (beyond highways) will remain a holdup for decades, and if there's an X factor, it's the fiscal ploy behind-scenes: Tesla doesn't declare FSD income normally, allowing them to hold back that income to pad balance sheets in lean times. I'm not suggesting FSD's entirely a scam, but the accounting trick creates powerful incentive to push hopeful (and carefully disclaimered) vaporware.

Unless I'm missing something essential, I can't see spending $10K (OTOH I'm not awash in money).

Maybe its been fixed on newer cars but my 2016 Gen 2 (MCU1) has none chance of EVER being self driving. Cameras are blinded at sunrise and sunset (my commute hours) and phantom braking is SO bad that I cannot trust it for a minute. Yet I could still fork over the $8000 on their website to activate this vaporware. Hell I cant even go a week without the MCU rebooting and stranding me for 10 minutes while it recovers #lemon #FSDscam
 
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Maybe its been fixed on newer cars but my 2016 Gen 2 (MCU1) has none chance of EVER being self driving. Cameras are blinded at sunrise and sunset (my commute hours) and phantom braking is SO bad that I cannot trust it for a minute. Yet I could still fork over the $8000 on their website to activate this vaporware. Hell I cant even go a week without the MCU rebooting and stranding me for 10 minutes while it recovers #lemon #FSDscam

To the OP. When I bought my used 2016.5 MS 75D from Tesla about nine months ago, I was ecstatic to be able to get FSD folded in (and financed). Not because it was essential or I believed it was right around the corner or that I'd use it all the time, but because (I guess) of FOMO: I like trying out tech, and I didn't want to wish later that I'd rolled that in. HOWEVER, make no mistake, AP (not even NoAP) handles highway driving exceptionally well, no need for FSD for that.

To Altes: I've heard of the AP issues, and the only one I've experienced is the phantom braking, and that's progressively dissipated with updates (maybe something to ask about at a future service visit?). On the MCU, I'm completely with you. Anxious to see how Tesla decides to deal with the NHTSA recall recommendation.
 
I have been a car guy since I was born and one of the things I love is driving the car, I have no interest is FSD and all the update they have put out for FSD have done nothing but mess up the UI. It is unfortunate that you cannot decline updates that are related to this if you do not want FSD.
 
I have a 3 very late model S’s all purchased new in the last 1.5 years but only one has FSD (not the latest purchase). In my opinion the Full system offers very little actual benefits if any over the free system other than gimmicks. The regular included AP has exactly the same performance on a highway trip except than the regular AP makes lane changes quicker and smoother because I turn the wheel myself when the lane is clear. If anyone allows the FSD to change lanes on its own without actually monitoring the traffic/system then they shouldn’t be driving in the first place because the system isn’t up to the challenge without oversight. If Tesla put their money where their mouth is and offered refunds on the FSD system purchases I unquestionably think they would have much lower numbers of FSD in service.
 
I don't see any logical reason to buy FSD on a new car,

FSD has been sold since the beginning of 2017, and there is still no indications that it is even close to being released yet alone regulatory approval for actual autonomous driving.

In a recent Tweet Elon admitted that they're valuing FSD as zero dollars on a trade in.

The torque sensor used to monitor the driver is pretty horrendous.

The performance of every FSD feature except lane-change is inconsistent.

Tesla is supposed to offer FSD subscriptions so you do have an option if Tesla somehow magically came out with FSD.

I have FSD, but the smart money is not getting FSD or going the used route and getting a car that Tesla slid FSD onto. Just cross your fingers they don't pull it off a few days after you pick it up from the 3rd party seller.
 
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I have been a car guy since I was born and one of the things I love is driving the car, I have no interest is FSD.

It's funny. Me, too, for the most part. I love driving (in fact, one aspect discouraging my purchase is the lack of real, tight road feel in the steering).

However, I'd also enjoy FSD at certain times. Late nights. While sleepy. Traffic jams. When I need to arrive fresh-feeling at a distant destination. Not to mention my scenario (above) of falling asleep in the camper and waking up at a chowder shack in Maine the next morning when I'm at an advanced age where such a trip would be daunting.
 
...With the advances I've seen in the beta videos and my probability of keeping the car for 8 years I paid for the $8k FSD. We'll see if it was worth it.

I bought FSD at $8K just before the price hike to $10K. As a new owner, I was swept up in the excitement of the car and bought Elon's promise for something great in 2020. I didn't realize he meant games and farts.

The more I watch the Beta videos, the more I realize how much better it needs to get before it goes to Gen Pop. Honestly, I wish I could get my money back. I suspect the Beta testers will be on v50 by the end of 2021. Yes, the Beta is getting better, but it's like a repeating decimal (.99999...) that gets larger and larger by smaller and smaller amounts, but will never reach 1.0.

I try to use NoA whenever I can - mostly when my wife is NOT in the car. I live in NJ where traffic is a bloodsport. The Tesla is fine on open highways with little traffic. But it vacillates between inattention (like refusing to pass a car going 20mph under the speed limit) to batshit crazy (like speeding up rapidly as it approaches a sharp exit ramp).

I like the technology, but having driven a million miles lifetime, I can say that I don't find driving tiresome. I honestly never used cruise control before I got the Tesla, so maybe I'm not the target audience.
 
I try to use NoA whenever I can - mostly when my wife is NOT in the car

I'll venmo $100 to the first married man who drives on NoA from Portland, OR to Everett, WA with his wife in the car.

No disabling of NoA is allowed, and the set speed has to be +5mph over the speed limit, and no changing of the set speed during the drive. The wife has to be awake, and not drugged.

I imagine it will cause 1000 divorces before anyone accomplishes it.
 
I am waiting for a monthly FSD subscription to try it. I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO TRY FSD! Let the consumers be the judge. Then, if it’s really that much better for them over base AP, let them pick a package, subscription or purchase option.

Kind of like Tesla connectivity or Sirius XM. Let the customer try it!

Nothing screams VAPORWARE more than, “In a recent Tweet Elon admitted that they're valuing FSD as zero dollars on a trade in.”

At least let buyers transfer the FSD that they PURCHASED to a new Tesla vehicle... OR if Tesla intends to remarket the car with FSD the trade in customer should receive at least SOME credit.
 
Nothing screams VAPORWARE more than, “In a recent Tweet Elon admitted that they're valuing FSD as zero dollars on a trade in.”
Nothing screams clueless like the guy who refuses to check sources...

He never said it is valued as zero dollars. He said he is looking into it as it should be "reasonably valuable when doing a trade-in".
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1351016753372016647
upload_2021-1-22_19-28-51.png
 
As for the 'padding the balance sheet' thing, this is a liability for Tesla and of no benefit to their financials other than a minimal increase in cash on hand which they don't need given the astronomical stock price and easy ability to raise funds. Any ability to shape earnings is going to be minimal, require some demonstrable progress, still have to pass by internal accounting and external auditors, and would be ignored by investors in general who are obviously not looking at short-term GAAP profitability.
 
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