stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Note for this one you can customize under the NOA settings. "Mad Max" would suggest lane changes for much lower speed differentials.
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Why I'm Not Opting for Full Self-Driving
- Thread starter Eric S
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- emmc emmc failure fsd warranty
If you thought my thesis was "Is Not!" then I suppose "Is Too!" makes an apt response.
But, no, I was hoping for counter-evidence. So: which features do you use all the time? And how does it improve your life?
This might seem stupid, but I've never lived in the northeast and I don't think there's a corollary in most other regions. Sincerely interested. Do they just do eggs, pancakes, bacon, and stuff like that? Smoked seafoods? Honestly I could see chowder for breakfast and thought I might be missing out.
The subscription model is going to really be a game changer.
The reason is FSD has to actually offer something worthy of around $200 a month. I can't imagine anyone except the super rich thinking FSD in its current state is worth $200 a month.
Much of the current value in FSD is in its future potential. I got it a couple of years ago because I'm interesting in self-driving technology, and I wanted to be of this grand experiment. I knew at the time I ordered it that it would never be capable of true autonomous driving as it doesn't have sensor redundancy, but I felt like it could offer things of benefit. Like the traffic light response would be pretty cool, and it will be as soon as they allow go on green without a lead car. I'm pretty okay with failure through iteration despite not being keen on Elons use of a false promise to fund it through customers money.
With the subscription model it has to be worth that money that month or it just won't fly.
The subscription model also means Tesla can't play the game they've been playing where they add FSD to a used vehicle in order to fatten the margins of it. The reason they can't do that is they'll lose out on future earnings potential of FSD through the subscription model.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - so probably won’t be offered until “FSD” GA.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Verge guys are clueless. There is no “fiscal ploy”. Tesla gets the cash now - and that has greatly helped out Tesla. I doubt they care that much in the future - given the $TSLA price and billion dollar profit per quarter.
I agree, and I'm curious about what he'll say about the subscription plan during the earning report on the 27th.
I don't see the FSD beta being anywhere close to general release as it hasn't been released wide within the early access people.
My expectation is that the GA simply won't happen this year, and the subscription model will go on the back burner. Or maybe they'll release some aspect of it, and they'll charge significantly less for the subscription than expected. I do think its in Tesla's best interest to start pushing people to the subscription model as it better reflects the necessary iterative approach to FSD. They can simply raise the price of the subscription model once GA is released.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Best interest ? it’s complicated.
What effect will it have on FSD take rate and thus margin ? How will the market react to lower margin ? Lots of ifs and buts. 2 years back with low margins, stock price was 160. Now it is 4,250.
I think it’s safest to introduce subscription around GA.
It's really about short term vs. long term strategy.
There is a lot of liability in selling a product that likely will never achieve the basic premise of what its supposed to offer. The more vehicles they sell for $10K the more people they'll have demanding that it delivers on its promise.
When they're not able to deliver its going to piss of a lot of FSD owner especially those that paid $8K or $10K for it. It doesn't matter to a customer if the failure is a technical reason or legality.
That's why I believe they need to start doing some damage control sooner than later.
The subscription model offers a path where the buyers won't expect anything more than it does that month. Plus its easy for them to trade it in since the FSD subscription will keep going on with the new vehicle.
I strongly believe its going to take multiple hardware iterations.
Now it is somewhat dependent on exactly when the General release will happen. I do agree with you that it's best to time the FSD subscription with it, but I fear the general release will never happen with HW3.
This. FSD for 10k is an absolute scam.
I would pay 2k to have auto lane change though. That's really the only feature I miss that's not included with the base AP.
Agree with this as well. Auto lane change is the only feature I miss from my short FSD experience. Hoping the bring back the EA offering at some point...i'll probably jump on it this time.
Sunshine State
Automotive Enthusiast
I’m reasonably confident that people who say they use FSD all the time and then say that "it’s definitely worth it" do not realize that Autopilot does virtually everything that is useful in FSD but without the gimmicks. If you don’t have both current systems it is not as easy to see the advantages of Autopilot. A good comparison is a bit like when people say they prefer the pure Android operating system experience (Google Pixel) without flaky skins and tack ons that non Google Android phones use. Having both current Tesla systems I can’t say I would choose one of my cars over another going on a long road trip and I am a big fan of technology. Smart summon seems like a tool best suited for use as a sales lot demo of what Tesla Autopilot is capable of in a highly controlled environment.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
So you think the GA of what is now available in beta won’t ever happen with HW3 ?!?
I’m fairly confident it will - may be with some limitations in the beginning - but it will.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Do you think the current beta FSD - but operating at a much lower error rate, still needing constant supervision - is worth $10k ?
I look at that as the end game of Tesla “FSD” in the short term.
I can certainly see the possibility of it shipping with limitations, but certainly not to the extent of what's allowed in the beta.
The issue at hand is there is a limit to what human beings can realistically oversee. It's really hard for us to maintain vigilance when some automated system correctly does it 99.9% of the time. Even the select FSD beta testers have made oversight mistakes, and allowed the vehicle to curb wheels, etc. They've acknowledged that it's not an easy task.
It's also a bit telling that progress on traffic light response has stalled out. Initially it was really encouraging because they slowly added more capability very cautiously, but then progress stopped. We still don't have go on green without a follow car. I don't know what's holding it up, but I imagine its most likely some liability or regulatory fear.
So I don't think the full on FSD beta can be released to general public as an L2 system especially under a democratic federal administration.
I would argue that it doesn't really need to be released to the General public to accomplish its goals of pushing Tesla further to L5. All they really need to do is to release it to the early access people to keep it under the radar, and then extend the EAP beta to cover as many geographical regions as possible. From the testing figure out what iterations are necessary on the HW, and then release a new revision of the vehicle with HW4+. When people complain simply allow them to trade up with full FSD credit. Blame the government for the miss.
It doesn't mean that the general public doesn't get features from within the FSD beta, but only to make vast improvements to what we already have. At this point I'd be pretty happy with NoA that didn't suck, and stop sign response with a beep when it was my time to go. That way it simplifies those multi-lane/multi-way stop signs. Reverse summons would be nice too.
Finally I think we need to put a timetable on HW3. If we look at it from a sensor suite perspective its HW2.5, and that means it was "born" in 2018, and I would say 72 months is the longest realistic time table we can put on it. I think the game is basically over by the end of 2023. I will have long moved on by then.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This is because they are working on the newly rewritten FSD beta.
LOL. It will come out as a L2 system. Will face regulatory hurdle if competitors lobby - irrespective of the government.
mikes_fsd
Banned
Interesting, so in what category would you put me then?
I have an AP1 car and an FSD car and engage FSD/Autopilot every single drive.
FSD is worth every penny to me - knowing that updates keep coming.
Needsdecaf
Active Member
100%.
I already voted with my wallet.
I had EAP on my 2018 that was totaled. Paid $5k for that. When it came time to buy the 2020 replacement, I opted not to buy FSD. Why, because as this poster said Auto Lane Change (really lane change on my signal, not even allowing the car to select) is the ONLY thing I miss. Oh, and dumb summon. I miss that too.
To me, any ADAS has to make my life easier, not more painful. I'd rather have a solid Level 3 that worked without fault on highways than a Level 2 that can operate everywhere. I don't know, local driving has never, ever bothered me. Unless I'm sitting in a traffic jam, I'm completely fine driving myself. And until I can trust a machine to make judgements at the same level that I can, my stress level isn't going to go down. Case in point, NOA. Sure, NOA works...mostly. But for me, it stressed me the heck out. I hated looking in the mirror, wondering if it's going to make the lane change before the bro-dozer barreling up on me is close enough to hit me. Or when it was going to get over to take the exit we needed. Or wondering why it was going 45 up the ramp when everyone else wanted to do 70. So yeah, it could drive me. But not well enough to make me relax.
All the other features contained within EAP (which is 95% the same as what you get now with FSD) were not helpful to me. Not passing judgement on whether they "worked" or not. But if they were capable of making maneuvers, those maneuvers were sufficiently unnatural to me that they did not contribute to lowering my stress level while driving. TACC and AutoSteer DO lower my stress.
When EAP was re-introduced last year for $4k I thought LONG and hard about buying it. REALLY hard. But in the end I realized the biggest reason I was getting it was to avoid having to constantly re-start Auto Steer after highway lane changes and hear "bong bong". And I decided for $4k, I'd rather buy a set of coilovers and listen to the "bong bong".
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