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Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

Will Tesla Be Able to Match Supply with Demand in terms of Superchargers in 2024/2025?

  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 40 8.7%
  • NOPE → Tesla will not be able to meet demand even if they accelerate the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 36 7.8%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand and the SC network buildout will continue as normal.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • SKEPTICAL → Tesla may be able to meet demand but requires accelerating the SC network buildout.

    Votes: 85 18.4%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand with the normal SC network buildout.

    Votes: 29 6.3%
  • OPTIMISTIC → Good chance Tesla will be able to meet demand but requires accelerating SCs buildouts.

    Votes: 108 23.4%
  • YUP → Tesla will meet demand without needing to accelerate building out the SC network.

    Votes: 30 6.5%
  • YUP →Tesla will meet demand but requires them accelerating the buildout of the SC network.

    Votes: 94 20.3%
  • Nope, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skeptical, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%
  • Optimistic, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 3 0.6%
  • Yup, but for reasons not listed above.

    Votes: 4 0.9%

  • Total voters
    462
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It appears to me that this will happen in fairly short order. One of the larger third party providers of public chargers, ChargePoint made this announcement today.

ChargePoint Announces Availability of NACS Solutions for New and Existing EV Charging Deployments Enabling Customers to Continue to Serve Any EV in Any Parking Space | ChargePoint
FWIW, ChargePoint announced NACS support about two weeks ago:
The difference seems to be that the earlier announcement specified that they would "soon offer" NACS, whereas this one announces "availability" -- but then goes on to say that the CP6000 Level 2 commercial EVSE will be available with NACS in "early 2024," whereas the earlier one could only specify it would be "soon." I don't see any dates specified for other equipment. My guess is that they've found a supplier for the Level 2 cables and connectors, so they could set a timeline and decided to make a new announcement with that meager bit of new information.

Also, and just for chuckles, look at the photo carefully:
Chargepoint-282_0.jpg

That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while, and the guy holding the cable is making sure that a good chunk of that cable is blocked by his legs, with his right arm and hand also out of view in the same area. It looks like a bog-standard Telsa-manufactured plug. The holster for the plug is also largely obscured by the guy's left hand. My guess is that the unit has a CHAdeMO plug, and that's plugged into Tesla's CHAdeMO-to-Tesla adapter, with the adapter handle and CHAdeMO plug hidden behind the guy's leg.

I'm not going to sue them for false advertising or anything, since I do believe they're sincere in wanting and planning to bring NACS support. I just thought it was amusing that they were desperate enough to get a photo that they'd do it in this way.

As to the bigger question of when NACS will start appearing at public Level 2 stations, remember that a supplier like ChargePoint making NACS plugs available doesn't necessarily mean that site hosts will choose NACS over J1772. The latter has a much bigger installed base than does CCS, thanks to the existence of PHEVs, CHAdeMO EVs, and the handful of BEVs that were sold without any sort of fast charging. Every Tesla comes with a J1772 adapter (unless Tesla's cheaped out recently on that). Thus, J1772 is the much safer choice for public Level 2 charging, and that will likely remain true for a while. Maybe if J1772 adapters don't come with Teslas and other NACS-equipped cars in the future, NACS will become the safer choice in three or four years, but even then I'm sure a lot of people may buy the adapters. To be sure, I think that J1772 is doomed, but it'll likely linger for much longer than CCS.
 
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That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while, and the guy holding the cable is making sure that a good chunk of that cable is blocked by his legs, with his right arm and hand also out of view in the same area. It looks like a bog-standard Telsa-manufactured plug. The holster for the plug is also largely obscured by the guy's left hand. My guess is that the unit has a CHAdeMO plug, and that's plugged into Tesla's CHAdeMO-to-Tesla adapter, with the adapter handle and CHAdeMO plug hidden behind the guy's leg.
I'm pretty sure there was a video of that as well, and there was no CHAdeMO adapter. They have been working on NACS compatibility for a couple years, as they always knew they would need to offer it.
 
That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while, and the guy holding the cable is making sure that a good chunk of that cable is blocked by his legs, with his right arm and hand also out of view in the same area. It looks like a bog-standard Telsa-manufactured plug. The holster for the plug is also largely obscured by the guy's left hand. My guess is that the unit has a CHAdeMO plug, and that's plugged into Tesla's CHAdeMO-to-Tesla adapter, with the adapter handle and CHAdeMO plug hidden behind the guy's leg.

I'm not going to sue them for false advertising or anything, since I do believe they're sincere in wanting and planning to bring NACS support. I just thought it was amusing that they were desperate enough to get a photo that they'd do it in this way.
I'm looking at the same picture you are and none of that is true.
 
It's possible that my conclusions are wrong, but I stand by my observations.

Is your main observation this:

That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while,
I'm not sure how that is relevant. It may very well have had a CHAdeMO previously, but that is likely one of the test chargers installed at their engineering/development headquarters. So, once they had a cable available, they just went out and removed the CHAdeMO, or seconds CCS, cable and put the NACS cable on the charger.
 
I'm pretty sure there was a video of that as well, and there was no CHAdeMO adapter. They have been working on NACS compatibility for a couple years, as they always knew they would need to offer it.

Here's a link to the video: From the OP on Reddit:
At ChargePoint HQ. Looks like it’s using the CCS protocol over the NACS connector. There’s an active alert telling you not to use the button on the handle to stop charging. There was also a dual L2 charger with one NACS connector. The DCFC connector was branded with "TESLA" but the L2 connector was unbranded and had a much bigger strain relief than the Tesla Wall Connector.
 
<snip>
That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while, and the guy holding the cable is making sure that a good chunk of that cable is blocked by his legs, with his right arm and hand also out of view in the same area. It looks like a bog-standard Telsa-manufactured plug. The holster for the plug is also largely obscured by the guy's left hand. My guess is that the unit has a CHAdeMO plug, and that's plugged into Tesla's CHAdeMO-to-Tesla adapter, with the adapter handle and CHAdeMO plug hidden behind the guy's leg.

I'm not going to sue them for false advertising or anything, since I do believe they're sincere in wanting and planning to bring NACS support. I just thought it was amusing that they were desperate enough to get a photo that they'd do it in this way.

<snip>
So I live about 10 miles from ChargePoint HQ in Campbell, CA. I'm familiar with the place as several years ago when I had a loaner BMW i3 for a few days I needed a charge. Here is the station that you obviously grabbed from a PR:

Screenshot_20230628_102503_Gallery.jpg


It has a NACS plug and no CHAdeMO adapter visible. And here's my photo details:

Screenshot_20230628_102725_Gallery.jpg
 
It's possible that my conclusions are wrong, but I stand by my observations.
Is your main observation this:
That's a DC fast charger, not a Level 2 EVSE. It's a unit that's been installed for a while,
No, that's not my main observation. That was a comment that the unit specifically mentioned in the press release as being "available" was a Level 2 EVSE, not a DC fast charger, as shown in the photo, so the photo was mis-matched to the press release. My main observations from that paragraph, which led to my (now proven incorrect) conclusion about how the photo was staged, were:
the guy holding the cable is making sure that a good chunk of that cable is blocked by his legs, with his right arm and hand also out of view in the same area. It looks like a bog-standard Telsa-manufactured plug. The holster for the plug is also largely obscured by the guy's left hand.
Those observations are 100% correct. So is the observation that it's a DC fast charger, but that's not the main point of those observations. In fact, the main point of my post was earlier still:
FWIW, ChargePoint announced NACS support about two weeks ago:
The difference seems to be that the earlier announcement specified that they would "soon offer" NACS, whereas this one announces "availability" -- but then goes on to say that the CP6000 Level 2 commercial EVSE will be available with NACS in "early 2024," whereas the earlier one could only specify it would be "soon." I don't see any dates specified for other equipment. My guess is that they've found a supplier for the Level 2 cables and connectors, so they could set a timeline and decided to make a new announcement with that meager bit of new information.
Note that I began my observation of the photo with the phrase "just for chuckles" and concluded that I thought it was amusing that they'd used a photo that was mis-matched to their press release. Although correcting my incorrect conclusion is certainly welcome, some posters seem to be taking my comments about the nature of the photo, which were intended to be light-hearted, way too seriously!
 
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Note that I began my observation of the photo with the phrase "just for chuckles" and concluded that I thought it was amusing that they'd used a photo that was mis-matched to their press release

That was a comment that the unit specifically mentioned in the press release as being "available" was a Level 2 EVSE, not a DC fast charger, as shown in the photo, so the photo was mis-matched to the press release.

Huh? o_O It isn't mismatched. Nowhere do they say that is a L2 station, or that only L2 is available. Here is the full text of the press release with that picture.

Campbell, Calif., June 27, 2023ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CHPT), a leading provider of solutions for charging electric vehicles (EVs), today announced the availability of NACS connector options for new orders and for currently installed CP6000, Express 250, and Express Plus customers. The addition of NACS enabled solutions, in addition to J1772 or Combined Charging System (CCS) solutions, enables customers to serve the charging needs of any EV in any parking space.

“ChargePoint’s 15-year history as a leader in the EV revolution has prepared us for evolving market dynamics, as well as enabled us to predict customer and driver needs,” said Bill Loewenthal, Chief Product Officer at ChargePoint. “Our highly modular charging platforms, combined with our new NACS connector options, allow customers to be confident that their investment in EV charging is successful for any connector scenario. We remain committed to developing networked charging solutions that ensure any EV can charge in any parking space.”

ChargePoint’s DC line of products, the Express 250 and Express Plus, along with ChargePoint’s home-based AC line of products, the CPF50 and award-winning Home Flex will be sold or can be reconfigured with NACS connector options later this year. Similarly, ChargePoint’s newest commercial and light fleet product, the CP6000 will be sold or can be reconfigured with NACS connector options in early 2024. In addition to improving charging station compatibility with NACS, the ChargePoint mobile app, which allows EV drivers access to more than 743,000 active and roaming ports, currently includes personal location filters for NACS, J1772, CCS and CHAdeMO connectors so EV drivers can easily locate and access the proper charging solution for their vehicle.

Specifically designed to lower the cost of repair and maintenance, most ChargePoint charging stations offer cable modularity, enabling existing site hosts to replace, repair or exchange charging cables and connectors, including NACS connectors as needed. The addition of NACS connector options to ChargePoint’s product catalog ensures that customers and drivers will continue to benefit from a seamless, integrated charging experience before an anticipated spike in NACS-equipped EVs enter the U.S. market in 2025.

They say it is available to order NACS for the Express 250 and Express Plus which are DC fast chargers and what are pictured.

Although correcting my incorrect conclusion is certainly welcome, some posters seem to be taking my comments about the nature of the photo, which were intended to be light-hearted, way too seriously!
Really? You specifically accused them of false advertising, just that you weren't going to sue them for it.

I'm not going to sue them for false advertising or anything, since I do believe they're sincere in wanting and planning to bring NACS support. I just thought it was amusing that they were desperate enough to get a photo that they'd do it in this way.
 
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Huh? o_O It isn't mismatched. Nowhere do they say that is a L2 station, or that only L2 is available. Here is the full text of the press release with that picture.
The only time they mentioned a specific availability date was in reference to the CP6000, which is a Level 2 EVSE:
ChargePoint press release said:
Similarly, ChargePoint’s newest commercial and light fleet product, the CP6000 will be sold or can be reconfigured with NACS connector options in early 2024.
The main difference between this press release and the earlier one was that they specified "availability," whereas the earlier one did not.
Really? You specifically accused them of false advertising, just that you weren't going to sue them for it.
You people are seriously mis-reading my posts. I think I'll stop making them, at least on this topic.
 
The only time they mentioned a specific availability date was in reference to the CP6000, which is a Level 2 EVSE:
You mean other than the sentence directly before that one?

ChargePoint’s DC line of products, the Express 250 and Express Plus, along with ChargePoint’s home-based AC line of products, the CPF50 and award-winning Home Flex will be sold or can be reconfigured with NACS connector options later this year.

Or do you not consider "later this year" an availability date, while you do consider "early 2024" an availability date? 🤷‍♀️

Which is, not, surprisingly before the CP6000, given that is what they "demoed" in the picture.

You people are seriously mis-reading my posts. I think I'll stop making them, at least on this topic.
Maybe it is related to your mis-reading of the press release?
 
BTW, when I was at ChargePoint HQ taking photos of the station, the display said it was "160kW DC shared" and I believe that the cost was $0.25/kW. Just for grins I tried my own ChargePoint RFID tag but it said it was invalid. The tag has worked for me on other public ChargePoint chargers so I can only assume that this station requires a special account, similar to what I used to have at work (employees were issued a tag which allowed use of the ChargePoint chargers in the parking lot). When I arrived, there was a Model S charging and he drove away just before I took my photos.
 
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I wonder if Ford, GM and the others will move their charge ports to support left-rear or front-right by 2025 when they say they will have NACS ports. The short charging cables of the Superchargers are one of the best features. No cables laying all over and getting run over.
I've been watching the electric GMC Denali and it looks like the charge port is a little further forward than it is on a Model 3. I don't know what kind of port they have yet though.
 
Moderator note: This post was the start of a thread on pretty much the same topic, which was merged into this thread.

What do you guys think? I know this is pure speculation but it IS a concern esp with the ramped production of Tesla itself + all the new manufacturers hopping onboard in 2024-2025 timeframe. The network itself is already quite busy ... I can't imagine what it'll be like coming up. It's not like Tesla can just spin up new sites overnight -- many locations are still 1+ year permitting BEFORE even starting construction
 
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Over 70 percent of EVs are currently Tesla - it seems like that number will remain over 50 percent even with massive EV growth. Therefore, other Teslas are still the main issue for congestion. Tesla is expanding the number of supercharger stalls much much faster than other companies are expanding EV production. Not sure if SC expansion is fast enough for the rate of Tesla production though
 
What do you guys think? I know this is pure speculation but it IS a concern esp with the ramped production of Tesla itself + all the new manufacturers hopping onboard in 2024-2025 timeframe. The network itself is already quite busy ... I can't imagine what it'll be like coming up. It's not like Tesla can just spin up new sites overnight -- many locations are still 1+ year permitting BEFORE even starting construction

I think you are worried about nothing. Here is a screen shot of the number of Superchargers being built right now from

supercharge.info


Screenshot 2023-06-29 at 3.04.12 PM.png
 
I think you are worried about nothing. Here is a screen shot of the number of Superchargers being built right now from

supercharge.info


View attachment 951885
So a 25% increase in superchargers planned/in-progress. Point still stands, availability is still lacking in parts of country + anecdotally on a recent drive down to LA a lot of chargers are at 100% capacity with in-nav quoting 25min waits.

Will older bolt/leaf give access to supercharger too? Even though they shouldn't there ARE cars that charge slow af and could squat on spots. I'm sure other companies will be ramping production too soon.
 
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