Mike Smith
Active Member
Do you read Taiwanese? If so can you give a summary of all the points? It seems like there's a fair bit more in there but google translate is not working well.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Do you read Taiwanese? If so can you give a summary of all the points? It seems like there's a fair bit more in there but google translate is not working well.
Wifey translation:
The Taiwanese company was originally ordered to make 5000 parts/week. They are currently in compliance and are slated to make 5k/week for Oct and Nov. They just got a change order to reduce production to 3k/wk in December (2 month notice). Also they were slated to build 10k/week in March, this has been pushed back to May or June.
Then there was a discussion of the stock price and Chinese/Shanghai speculation.
Apparently multiple Taiwanese companies will be affected, potentially hurting their stock price. The company in question makes the deceleration gear/part; another company makes the TPMS; another company with some Navigation/Driving assistance part; another company having something to do with the battery (not the actual pack itself); and another dealing with the sunroof/moonroof.
Ended up with speculation of why the bottleneck, the chairs? Also speculated about some quality issues: since the model 3 demand is so high, Tesla supposedly needs to source the same part from multiple suppliers leading to unacceptable variation... as opposed to the S & X which have individual parts sourced from one supplier per part.
The Taiwanese company was originally ordered to make 5000 parts/week. They are currently in compliance and are slated to make 5k/week for Oct and Nov. They just got a change order to reduce production to 3k/wk in December (2 month notice). Also they were slated to build 10k/week in March, this has been pushed back to May or June.
Then there was a discussion of the stock price and Chinese/Shanghai speculation.
Apparently multiple Taiwanese companies will be affected, potentially hurting their stock price. The company in question makes the deceleration gear/part; another company makes the TPMS; another company with some Navigation/Driving assistance part; another company having something to do with the battery (not the actual pack itself); and another dealing with the sunroof/moonroof.
Ended up with speculation of why the bottleneck, the chairs? Also speculated about some quality issues: since the model 3 demand is so high, Tesla supposedly needs to source the same part from multiple suppliers leading to unacceptable variation... as opposed to the S & X which have individual parts sourced from one supplier per part.
10k per week in May or June sounds pretty good to me.
This sounds real and not bad at all. I means they are aiming 1/4 back, but still playing the edge of the tax credit in the same way. But they will be able to execute better during the window, because they will have had more practice.
Yes, the way I see it is they’re confident that they will get 3k/week by December, then 10k mid next year. Too bad @Troy has decided to stay away from TMC; he could use these numbers to update his projected numbers and tax credit allocations.
Getting 3k parts/week in December doesn't mean they can only produce 3k cars/week. The supplier said they already shipped a lot of parts to Tesla in October and will continue in November. So 5k/week production by year end is not completely out of picture.
If we assume that the extra stuff weighs 44kg (97lbs) the net battery pack weight would be 436kg, which is the same as Chevy Bolt pack weight. If I remember correctly, the M3 usable battery capacity is 78kWh, while Bolt's is 60kWh. So M3 has 30% higher energy density on the pack level than LG Chem pack used for Chevy Bolt. This is very significant difference, an easily available proof of Tesla's huge technological advantage over the competitors.
mmd
Active Member
Actually, it still sounds too good to me.
Just like 100k-200k in second half of 2017 did last year.Or 20k in Dec sounded just few months back. How long before the 0 is dropped?
If Tesla couldn't see the huge "bottlenecks" coming their way till it got run over, how can we feel confident Tesla sees everything till next May or June?
Those seat excuses seem pure FUD. We all saw Tesla delivering production cars in July. How could the cars be in production when parts didn't meet specs? They were all simulated to reach the RC status logn ago, were they not?
Now we have Reuters reporting on this. Part maker Hota dropped 9%. Where will TSLA go tomorrow?
Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report
Here is a simple question. This supplier makes axles and gears. How many axles and gear parts are in a M3? Do 3000 parts equal 3000 cars, or fewer cars?
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It's funny watching Elon catchup on fear of AI takeover. That concept was well debated on the internet over 10 years ago, and for the .01% of us that were paying attention then he looks like a johnny-come-lately pushing old cliches and getting crazy attention for illegitimate reasons. The mistakes of Elon are rather in front of you. The buyout of solarcity was one of the dumbest things I have ever witnessed. I'm a big fan of Netflix and have been invested for 15 years and I wish to god they'd fire Elon and hire Reed at this point.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Elon decided to leave CEO and sit as some strategic advisor role. If I were him, I'd not give two shits about all the effort and pain of a car company when I have complete freedom to explore far more interesting enterprises.The sooner he leaves the better. We need a good manager to replace him.
bdy0627
Active Member
I think it's unrealistic not to adjust expectations for where production will be in 8 weeks. 5K/week by year end may still be theoretically possible, kinda like the Cleveland Browns could still make the playoffs. But, let's be honest at this point, don't plan on it.
...
What FUDsters have trouble understanding nowadays is that everything is on the record. What I mean is that back in the days, fudsters could say whatever the hell they wanted and if they were wrong it was basically " the past ", no one or very few people remembered what they say and there was few ways to " register " what they said. Except a few exceptions when the FUDster was a very reputable person.
However today with the internet, it's forever here.
Will be fun in a few years to come back to those comments and basically have a little laugh.
Should your words prove correct ('... have a little laugh ...'), please keep this post and PM me and I'll fly to Berlin and buy you lunch or dinner or both or a new Tesla. I'm so freaking squeamish these days.
And everyone can save their collective typing breath by telling me to sell my shares. I sold and came back, realizing that I'm even more neurotic on the outside-looking-in than on the in-looking-out.
And everyone can save their collective typing breath by telling me to sell my shares. I sold and came back, realizing that I'm even more neurotic on the outside-looking-in than on the in-looking-out.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
You can do that now on Seeking Alpha. Just look at Montana Skeptic's articles from 2016, and you can get a real good laugh.
Also, check out Paula's articles from when he was shorting Amazon a few years ago
This cuts both ways. There are some here that have predicted an SP of $2k+ by early/mid 2019 (still possible, but unlikely IMO) and
100K model 3s produced in 2017 ( near impossible ) and dispute that the SP could ever go sub $300 again. ( very unlikely but not impossible).
if the producer was delivering 5k parts/weekly for october november, tesla would *have* to reduce supply in the near term because they will be temporarily be far oversupplied.
i guess a different way of saying it is that if you knew tesla was ordering 5000 parts a week october and november, given what we have seen for output so far in october, you would also know they were more than adequately supplied for whatever reasonable december scenario (including 5k/weekly the whole month).
order cuts would be a logical move to manage accounts payable, not necessarily indicative of a reduced exit rate in december.
two other things to note from a trading standpoint: a huge number of 320 calls expiring today will create meaningful selling pressure at the open. in fact, if i were a large short who wanted to cover this morning, i would do it by selling first, pushing the stock under 320, and covering against the options hedge flow. so look for a surge lower in the morning to possibly establish a short term low.
the second thing is that the qqq will be up huge, and there will likely be forced buying late if the market stays up throughout the day. this may help tesla later in the day once the hedge pressure has faded.
i guess a different way of saying it is that if you knew tesla was ordering 5000 parts a week october and november, given what we have seen for output so far in october, you would also know they were more than adequately supplied for whatever reasonable december scenario (including 5k/weekly the whole month).
order cuts would be a logical move to manage accounts payable, not necessarily indicative of a reduced exit rate in december.
two other things to note from a trading standpoint: a huge number of 320 calls expiring today will create meaningful selling pressure at the open. in fact, if i were a large short who wanted to cover this morning, i would do it by selling first, pushing the stock under 320, and covering against the options hedge flow. so look for a surge lower in the morning to possibly establish a short term low.
the second thing is that the qqq will be up huge, and there will likely be forced buying late if the market stays up throughout the day. this may help tesla later in the day once the hedge pressure has faded.
Agreed. But those " positive " predictions are most likely off by a few quarters.
In the case of FUDsters, their whole premise is wrong.
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
