2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Krugerrand]

Ferrari's market cap is $20B, and the Roadster will make Ferraris look like roadkill.

Ferrari, who?

 

[EinSV]

Think of Roadster as advertising. The free PR will be huge.

It is also a direct smack in the face of gasoline engines. That is the whole point -- even more so than immediate dollars and cents.

This is right out of the Rolling Stone interview. To deal with a bully (legacy car companies) you don't back down. You go right at them. I love this!

 

[ktrivedi70]

Couple of huge take away points as far as I was concerned from tonight.
1) Massive improvements in charging.
2) Massive improvements in battery technology potentially on the horizon.
3) Less sexy than above but there appeared to be significant improvement in glass technology. Seems kind of dumb but this may have significant implications for the future.

 

[trils0n]

Also, I hope the 3 motor config the new roadster will use comes to the Model S first. Mmmm delicious torque vectoring.

 

[Drumheller]

ok, I've got 3 years to get 55 referrals. So drooling over the new roadster.

 

[DragonWatch]

1. bear twitter is awesome right now
2. there is something big going on with battery progress

Yeah, if they had not lost so much shorting they could have afforded a founders roadster in cash:-(

 

[neroden]

The Roadster has a 200kWh battery. That has to be a significant development in volumetric density... no way it (at today's density) could fit in a car smaller than a Model S. (and it has luggage space and 4 seats so it's actually got more space than the original Roadster!)

Bodes very well for the roadmap going into the future, including how often Superchargers will be used, etc. etc.

One might wonder why he revealed products that aren't available for such a long time.

Several reasons.

-- The most obvious, and noble, is the mission: the mission is to get rid of fossil fuel burning! These proofs of concept are a way to convince buyers to stop buying fossil fuel vehicles, and he pretty much said so.

In this vein, I want the next reveals to be the battery locomotive (show up on a train powered by a Tesla streamlined battery locomotive), the battery ship (invite everyone to a party on a container ship, reveal that it's battery-powered) and the battery airliner (land at the airport in it for the reveal).

-- The motive which all the short-sellers will ascribe, but which is probably also true...

You were wondering when the next capital raise would be? We just watched it. The reservations will be coming in.

 

[DragonWatch]

don't know where you live, but sightings are becoming pretty common in SF Bay Area. I don't think these cars are "hiding"

Thanks

 

[Ichabod]

OK, so first of all: no semis until 2019. Given "Tesla Time", think 2020. So everything will be cheaper.

Wholesale solar power at scale is down below 2 cents and wind is cheaper. It'll presumably be on-site, so distribution costs are nil. The remainder gives us a hint as to what they believe the actual Powerpack costs will be *in 2020*... 5c/kwh or 6c/kwh.

If we assume 5000 cycles per Powerpack, the current $250/kwh price comes out to 5c/kwh, and there you have it. I think a little extra must be allowed for land ownership costs and maintenance, but that's probably rolled into the truck price.

OK, so are they lying in their solar city sales literature that bases the benefits on constantly rising electricity costs?

Also, you haven't factored in the cost of those very large wind turbines or solar panels. Those aren't free, I don't think.

 

[Sancho]

Steve Jobs used to dazzle at announcement events with his One More Thing.

Elon Musk just took that to a new dimension with Roadster 2.0. That’s a ridiculously stupendous coda to a semi truck event.

 

[DragonWatch]

Good night Jon boy ~ I am expecting mega green in the am

 

[bambam4171]

Good night Jon boy ~ I am expecting mega green in the am

Megacharged mega green I'd venture

 

[neroden]

One more thought: it looked to me like the new Roadster was built on the S/X platform. Or maybe the 3 platform.

I suspect it won't have its own dedicated production line, but will be built on the same line as other higher-volume models. This makes sense since you can't really justify a full production line for a convertible given how few convertibles can be sold per year. What do others think?

 

[Intl Professor]

You hear that rumbling? I guess that must be all the shorts shitting their pants...

They eat their pants first? Wow.

 

[neroden]

OK, so are they lying in their solar city sales literature that bases the benefits on constantly rising electricity costs?

Yes, this claim has always been false, though I daresay the Rives might have believed it was true. I hope Tesla has stopped using that advertising since they liquidated the SolarCity name.

There is a kernel of truth to the literature: the part of the electricity costs which has been going up continuously is distribution & transmission costs, often with associated taxes and fees (like NY's disgusting "nuclear bailout tax"). Putting your electrical generation onsite avoids this.

Also, you haven't factored in the cost of those very large wind turbines or solar panels. Those aren't free, I don't think.

No, I've included that. Those are actual PPA costs from recent utility-scale contracts, so they include the (spread over decades) capital cost and the cost of financing. What I haven't included is land acquisition / property tax stuff, which is a minor issue.

 

[Ovulation]

One more thought: it looked to me like the new Roadster was built on the S/X platform. Or maybe the 3 platform.

I suspect it won't have its own dedicated production line, but will be built on the same line as other higher-volume models. This makes sense since you can't really justify a full production line for a convertible given how few convertibles can be sold per year. What do others think?

Makes sens, the semi has also to be build in Freemont if they want to pump it out 2020 ?

 

[SteveG3]

Elon's a fraudster. This event was totally underhyped.

 

[Intl Professor]

If this point inspires Tesla to make its own trains... well, GM used to. Why not?

Whopper hyperloops? (Just sounded funny to me.)

 

[bambam4171]

They eat their pants first? Wow.

Pardon my french

 

[Drumheller]

I didn't see anyone mention the BAMF at the start of the Semi unveil