2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[neroden]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

 

[EinSV]

There was a hint recently :
Tesla unlocks Next Gen Roadster as 'Secret Level' prize for top referrers

Roadster indeed mind blowing..
Even Mark B.S. still silent on twitter, he need more time to make up a fully new Tesla = Zero thesis.

Maybe he can plunk down his last $250K in AUM (thanks mom!) on a nice Roadster. He may as well enjoy life.

 

[Drumheller]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

Not sure about that. Many people stretched to buy a Model S (I did). I think some people may consider stretching to buy the new Roadster, if possible. I intend to. Before becoming a Tesla fan, the most I paid for a car was $22,400. If I was in a position to do so, I'd be reserving the new Roadster tonight.

Edit: I will be surprised if they sell 50,000 per year, but I think they can sell more than 5,000 per year. Looking forward to seeing the sales.

 

[Yggdrasill]

They will sell a lot more than that. Anybody who has a P will want a roadster. By 2020 that’s at least 50K/year. Since there’s literally no argument anymore (except price) not to buy it it may go to 100K+/year.

I want one. Doesn't mean I will buy one.

The price and utility may be attractive compared to ICE cars in it's segment, but it's still quite expensive for what is basically a toy. Maybe 5,000 is pessimistic, if they push it to 20,000 per year, that's still not a huge at ~5 billion per year. By 2020 Model 3 revenue should be well in excess of 40 billion per year.

 

[TradingInvest]

Steve Jobs used to dazzle at announcement events with his One More Thing.

Elon Musk just took that to a new dimension with Roadster 2.0. That’s a ridiculously stupendous coda to a semi truck event.

Elon introduced 4 things tonight, all at world record level.
Semi, smaller semi, mega charger, Roadster.

 

[SteveG3]

There was a hint recently :
Tesla unlocks Next Gen Roadster as 'Secret Level' prize for top referrers

Roadster indeed mind blowing..
Even Mark B.S. still silent on twitter, he needs more time to make up a fully new Tesla = Zero thesis.
.. as ALL his earlier ones are now blown away, to a lower dimension..

- lead in Ev tech reconfirmed
- lead in battery tech (some mind blowing stuff must be happening there is you consider roadster specs)

Touch day for all other car companies today.

oh, the shorts new thesis is obvious... Tesla can't make the Model 3 and are hemorraging cash, so suddenly they tell you for $50K you can be at the front of the line for their 2020 superduperRoadster. 0-60 in 1.9 seconds, and 620 miles of range? Please... why not just announce the Elon Special due out in 2099 with 0-60 in 0.3 seconds and 1,800 miles of range... a million dollar deposit will put you to at the front of the line.

 

[TradingInvest]

I want one. Doesn't mean I will buy one.

The price and utility may be attractive compared to ICE cars in it's segment, but it's still quite expensive for what is basically a toy. Maybe 5,000 is pessimistic, if they push it to 20,000 per year, that's still not a huge at ~5 billion per year. By 2020 Model 3 revenue should be well in excess of 40 billion per year.

But the Roadster's gross margin will be 50%. That can translate to $20B market cap.

 

[RobStark]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

It is not a soft top convertible. Nor a hardtop convertible.

It is a targa top sports car.

Much more practical than soft top and much less likely to require maintenance than hard top.

 

[RobStark]

Roadster | Tesla
Base price is $200k, founder series $250k (limited to 100 units)

1000 Founder Series reservations available.

 

[TradingInvest]

Been lurking this forum since late 2013, but never had to post anything really valuable. I am hoping to at least be able to click "likes" now. I am just very excited as everyone here, although not sure whether today's event by itself will have a really positive impact on SP tomorrow/short term. Nevertheless, I am glad to have added another 100 shares today. The best Tesla event I've ever seen so far.

I am wondering what is the better as a long-term investment (say 15+ years), Founder's Roadster or TSLA. I think TSLA would be less risky / more liquid, but pretty sure Founder's Roadsters will be a nice collector's car in future. Although it would be painful to keep Roadster under the cover, and not drive it at all.

Welcome to the non-stop posting club!

I wouldn't pay too much attention to tomorrow's price. It doesn't mean much. Tesla is on it's way to become the largest company in the world. Long term holding is the key, add on every pullback.

Oh, regarding long term investment, my lesson is great companies beat "things" by a wide margin.

 

[Krugerrand]

1000 Founder Series reservations available.

Tick. Tick. Tick. And sold out.

Nope, I have no idea if or when they will sell out. But there's easily got to be 1,000 people in those millions that follow Elon Musk on Twitter. I think 2 - 3 days.

 

[Mike Smith]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

But gross margin is going to be massive and they'll be selling them for many, many years.

 

[RobStark]

I want one. Doesn't mean I will buy one.

The price and utility may be attractive compared to ICE cars in it's segment, but it's still quite expensive for what is basically a toy. Maybe 5,000 is pessimistic, if they push it to 20,000 per year, that's still not a huge at ~5 billion per year. By 2020 Model 3 revenue should be well in excess of 40 billion per year.

for a little persepctive

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...2016-profits-soar-as-sales-top-8-000-vehicles

BTW What is going on with the Norway "Tesla Tax" and the " We are not part of the EU but we need the EU's permission to exempt BEVs from Norwegian VAT for the next 3 years"?

 

[Causalien]

The roadster solved my problem. I don't need to wait for dual motor model 3 nor get the full upgrade.

 

[NicoV]

Not sure about that. Many people stretched to buy a Model S (I did). I think some people may consider stretching to buy the new Roadster, if possible. I intend to. Before becoming a Tesla fan, the most I paid for a car was $22,400. If I was in a position to do so, I'd be reserving the new Roadster tonight.

Me too

 

[sub]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

No idea how many they sell, I think it will be quite a few. I don't think using comparable sales of convertibles is a good way to estimate the number, any of those do 0-60 in 1.9s? I know I started thinking how I can make it happen!

I expect a down day tomorrow because that seems to be what happens after every event. I do think TSLA will be higher in the future however, im going to hold onto my shares for a while, maybe a decade or so.

 

[SPadival]

Porsche better come up with Remission E in 2020. Mission E obsolete within a year.. ROFL

Edit. oops.. I forgot to get permission to ROFL from schonluet or whoever

 

[Zloy]

Convertibles, TOTAL, WORLDWIDE, sell only about 400,000 per year. Of that population, most can't afford the new Roadster. There were only about 50,000 "premium" convertibles sold in 2014.

Honestly Tesla cannot expect more than 50,000 Roadster sales per year and that's probably wildly optimistic. Maybe 20,000 is plausible.

Great advertising tool for the brand, though.

The numbers on potential market are probably of the right order, but I think it would be a nice toy even for non-car people who can afford toys like that. I think there are a lot of (maybe tens of thousands) people who wouldn't even shop for Ferraris/Porsches/McLarens etc, but would buy Roadster, if they want a nice toy. This is in addition to those who buy all these luxury sport cars.

 

[RobStark]

Meanwhile back in Suttgart

Daimler unveils heavy-duty all-electric truck concept with ‘up to 220 miles’ range

 

[SteveG3]

I want one. Doesn't mean I will buy one.

The price and utility may be attractive compared to ICE cars in it's segment, but it's still quite expensive for what is basically a toy. Maybe 5,000 is pessimistic, if they push it to 20,000 per year, that's still not a huge at ~5 billion per year. By 2020 Model 3 revenue should be well in excess of 40 billion per year.

but, they may literally make about $50K-$100K on each Roadster (the 200 kWh battery pack will probably cost about $20K, couldn't they make the rest of the car, including all costs, unit share of R&D and capex spend..., for $120K or less?). if they do get to 20,000 per year, that's $1-2 billion in profits per year from the new Roadster. At a 25 pe, that's basically 50% to 100% of our current market cap off the Roadster alone, and I think Tesla's pe will be considerably higher than 25 for quite some time. just for context that these kinds of numbers are real, Ferrari's market cap is currently $21 billion and they sell about 8,000 cars per year.