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2020 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
- Start date
Had a bit of a google and the date doesn't seem to match up with anything else (ie as you say no other boat, Glovis didn't stop etc). but it does also seem to be a date that Tesla record in their data. Maybe more dates across a bunch of cars are needed to work out a pattern and if there's any value.
One thought that doesn't seem to work is the 22nd was a Sat, the 26th was a Wed, shame it wasn't the other way as you might have conclude the date was "shipped in the week ending.." The year did start on a Wed so could relate to a "week number" but even that you'd expect that to be "week starting" which doesn't work or the Tuesday for "week ending". Maybe time will tell
One thought that doesn't seem to work is the 22nd was a Sat, the 26th was a Wed, shame it wasn't the other way as you might have conclude the date was "shipped in the week ending.." The year did start on a Wed so could relate to a "week number" but even that you'd expect that to be "week starting" which doesn't work or the Tuesday for "week ending". Maybe time will tell
I like the thinking, however it could just be the date some export paperwork was filed, rather than a specific ship sailing date.
Mr H
Active Member
No ships have arrived - i think they're staggering the inventory releases to get people thinking there's not many left, so thy'll get in quick.
When I spoke to Tesla rep a week ago he said there were "thousands" stuck in Southampton. Probably an exaggeration but suggests there's still stuff sitting there being released slowly as and when they can accommodate deliveries/collections.
I believe there is an attempt to get 30% of the Fremont factory workforce back to work today.
California has lifted restrictions on manufacturing however the Almeda County shelter-in-place order remains in force.
Whether it succeeds or not, it is clear that production levels will take time to ramp up and may not achieve previously attained figures.
With unsold inventory stock in country I can't see a big push for the UK market this quarter.
The San Francisco Port schedule has 2 placeholders for ships due to load at Pier 80 on 26 May & 29 May.
It takes 3 weeks from leaving Pier 80 to arrive at Zeebrugge and so I think the 2nd ship would be cutting it fine, even for Tesla, to unload and deliver several thousand cars by the end of June.
The questions are
a. Could the reduced production levels fill 2 ships?
b. Is there demand in EU at present for 2 shiploads of cars? or even 1?
I reckon there may be better money to be had by manufacturing parts, at least for this quarter.
California has lifted restrictions on manufacturing however the Almeda County shelter-in-place order remains in force.
Whether it succeeds or not, it is clear that production levels will take time to ramp up and may not achieve previously attained figures.
With unsold inventory stock in country I can't see a big push for the UK market this quarter.
The San Francisco Port schedule has 2 placeholders for ships due to load at Pier 80 on 26 May & 29 May.
It takes 3 weeks from leaving Pier 80 to arrive at Zeebrugge and so I think the 2nd ship would be cutting it fine, even for Tesla, to unload and deliver several thousand cars by the end of June.
The questions are
a. Could the reduced production levels fill 2 ships?
b. Is there demand in EU at present for 2 shiploads of cars? or even 1?
I reckon there may be better money to be had by manufacturing parts, at least for this quarter.
A 'benefit' of the pandemic is that the drop in international shipping traffic has allowed the backlog that had built up at the entrances to the Panama Canal to reduce considerably (about 2/3). In about 10 days it should have all but disappeared. It will be interesting to see what the Canal authorities then do about their pricing. In the past they have protected their overall revenue by raising their prices when traffic was reduced eg when drought restrictions were introduced.
Additionally there has been a global 20% drop in demand for RoRo vessels so far which should mean keener pricing and greater availabllity for charters, although this is a pretty tight industry that has seen some big players being prosecuted in the past for price fixing. The industry which has enjoyed a 3 - 4 month lead time for many years is now down to one month or even less.
Many ships are or will be out of position to allow a quick resumption of service which will cause a few temporary bottlenecks in the logistics for months to come.
The recent oil price slump is of no immediate benefit as most shipping line bunkering contracts are set 12 -18 months in advance.
Additionally there has been a global 20% drop in demand for RoRo vessels so far which should mean keener pricing and greater availabllity for charters, although this is a pretty tight industry that has seen some big players being prosecuted in the past for price fixing. The industry which has enjoyed a 3 - 4 month lead time for many years is now down to one month or even less.
Many ships are or will be out of position to allow a quick resumption of service which will cause a few temporary bottlenecks in the logistics for months to come.
The recent oil price slump is of no immediate benefit as most shipping line bunkering contracts are set 12 -18 months in advance.
Looks like Almeda County are insisting that the Fremont factory remains closed, despite a relaxation of restrictions by the State.
This has driven Elon bananas (OK, more bananas) and he is now stating that he will move his HQ to Texas. This sounds like a bit of a clue as to where the planned Cybertruck factory will be based although we still await the announcement.
In the meantime, no ships.
This has driven Elon bananas (OK, more bananas) and he is now stating that he will move his HQ to Texas. This sounds like a bit of a clue as to where the planned Cybertruck factory will be based although we still await the announcement.
In the meantime, no ships.
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darkNstormy
Member
It's quite astounding the infrastructure required to get a Tesla. Things like this show just how much we take for granted and don't understand about what makes the world revolve!
raphabarreiros
Member
Tesla opened Freemont factory and some trucks were spotted.
Morten Groove noticed that the first truck (at least) you can see that's meant for EU license plates if you freeze the image.
Morten Groove noticed that the first truck (at least) you can see that's meant for EU license plates if you freeze the image.
I have heard that an EU shipment is being assembled.
raphabarreiros
Member
On my understanding, yes!
That's great news. On SFO Port website says that there are 2 ships planned to leave Pier 80 by the end of the month. Do you have more info?
Herky75
Member
Does anyone know if the shipment for Netherlands (Amsterdam) and Belgium (Zeebrugge) is a shared shipment, or is each port expecting a dedicated shipment?
raphabarreiros
Member
I might be wrong, but on my understanding and if I do remember well it's the same ship. 1st stop Belgium (Zeebrugge) and 2nd Netherlands (Amsterdam).
Nothing has really changed on the shipping front since my post last Friday 3308 above, where I commented on that port schedule.
I have received information that production for the EU is in progress and if that is true (and all the evidence points to it being true) the target must be to fill the ship that is due in on 26 May. That ship remains to be identified and the number of possibilites are still too large at present to be meaningful.
It would be nice to see if Pier 80 is filling up. This would give a good indication of how soon we can expect to see a ship there. There is nothing to prevent an earlier shipment - there are ships available that could be there within days.
I will continue to monitor my usual sources and am very grateful to 'those in the know' for their tips and hints - keep them coming!
Herky75
Member
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