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Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by M109Rider, Jul 8, 2018.
As of today. !
Elon is close to that 6k mark.
Go get em Elon !
Here’s hoping at least 1K are P or AWD.
i'd rather see him get through the backlog of RWD vehicles ASAP before moving 20% of his production to the AWD/P but that's just me.
SR RWD non-premium will liekly be a large part of the demand, but all other varieties likely to be produced first.
Curious whether they can average 5,000/wk over Q3. And what the cost impact is of the extra lines and increased manual labor compared to the "humanless" original plan.
Agreed. How does that affect the original margin plan. Are they at a point where they are making money on each car yet? Is that in the last quarter financials? Curious to know.
From a business standpoint I have been scratching my head as to what Tesla has been doing.
It appears they diverted sales to Canada and delayed deliveries in the USA till after July to maximize the tax credit. This only makes since. However this will hurt their Q2 numbers (but help their Q3). To counter act the negative effects of the lower Q2 numbers, they opened the floodgates. This gave them a large cash injection as well as the ability to say we have xx,xxx outstanding ORDERS. Refundable reservations is one thing, non refundable orders is even better.
However, another possibility is they crossed the 200,000 mark and knew the decreased tax credit will cost them sales so they opened the floodgates prior to the numbers being reported to get as many orders as possible. If this is the case there will be a bunch of nervous people hoping for delivery in Q3, and a lot of pissed off reservations holders that will probably end up canceling their reservations.
Doesn't Bloomberg's tracker lag a bit compared to actual production? I wonder if it's just finally catching up with the 5k/week results from the last week of June. I think they were only at ~4,200 a couple of days after Tesla said they hit 5k.
Based off the estimated numbers reported, their break even production numbers should be between 3,300 - 3,800 cars per week.
Q2 will be in the red due to the large stockpile of 3's
Seriously. If you're a Tesla buyer but need, need, NEED the full, full FULL $7,500 rich person subsidy to dot he right thing and save the world with your new premium car...how did you get to own (or be in debt for) anything?
How many sales would Tesla lose compared to the optimal situation of past-July 1st 200,00 count?
Well some people use the gray matter between their ears to run calculations... for some the difference may change the purchase decision between it and an alternative.
As for saving the world... walk or ride a bike... Just dont ride a horse. Its farts cause global warming... lol
Elon and gang should have said "if you don't think you want a $59K car without the $7.5K rich people subsidy, just get yourself a Beamer and stop pretending to car about cars let alone the environment.
It started with badmouthing over the subsidies incurred (albeit paid back in full), why now make a one-nation subsidy such a needless selling point for Model 3? What about anti-selling?
Another thing to think about. At this build rate, and an average deleivery time to take into account, there's a good amount of cash locked up in the supply chain. Parts in stock, cars in transit to delivery. Parts may just be a liability with nice credit line. Cars, let's just imagine 20,000 cars in the pipeline. Over $1B right there. As exports become more prevalent and production grows, it can add up higher even with $36K cars in there.
The 5,000 being produced this week are about 10% of all Model 3 ever built. And the pipeline after the subsidy stock up, 20% or even more? Costly. Shorting might be smart before number come out. Then go long again. Q3 results will be sweet.
Suppliers tend to get paid 30 days after delivery at best, potentially 60 days. So Tesla's not on the hook for for much party materials as long as they can keep things moving through in a 4-6 week window and are running something close to JIT (which I'm pretty sure they are). The main thing that is shorter time window than this are employee wages.
Too few new VINs?
Delayed deliveries should not matter much now since we recently had a confirmed total production number, right?
According to the tracker, only 7-8,000 or so were added in 2 weeks since the 5,000 one. Not sure based off what. Are people still manically reporting their VINs? VIN reserves running thinner? Trendline looks bad, so likely the VIN reserving.
I was expecting the tracker to go over 5,000 with all the recent deliveries, but perhaps the Q2 number being published cut that short...
Before the day in the US is over, it's 8,300 for 2 weeks despite dropping to 3,582 weekly estimate. Hopeful?
Non-day one people are highly unlikely to report to Bloomberg and spreadsheet. They don't care.
I'd be very surprised if the 100 Performance units they built over the last 2 weeks didn't create an outsized drop in RWD units.
The activity in the production NUUMI parking lot has also been somewhat slower so expecting lower than 5K/week seems right.
I'd be surprised if they didn't prepare the rest of the car and line for the extra motor and it really takes a lot of extra time to assemble, for 2 weeks or longer. In my simple mind, motors can be married in simultaneously.
But not a better moment to absorb such delay than when having a second assembly line and the 5,000 mark just touched with public displays of celebration.
Yeah. Musk had explicitly tied the two together, prior. Plan was hit 5K/week, then AWD [in July]. The P is a half-step past (a few extra things with brakes, suspension tweak, spoiler) that but at extra $11K + $5K and $1.5(? for white interior) options that's a lot of high margin revenue potential.
For all the "common wisdom" about plans being in Elon Time and such, Tesla has been between only slightly short of mark on mark for months now (eg 2.2K/week end of Q1 instead of 2.5K/week). The Model 3 has reached that point in Elon Time where the phase shift between our reality and his aspirational rhetoric one are coming into alignment.
<GIF of George Peppard chomping a cigar>