Confirmed - Production ramp of 5,000/week delayed until late Q1 2018

[Trips]

"Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January. With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate. That will enable us to make the next generation of automation even better while making our capex spend significantly more efficient."
- From Tesla's Q3 shareholder letter

 

[internalaudit]

Is end of Q1 March-end? I know quarters vary from company to company.

I am not a shareholder but interested in a m3.

=====

If VINs in the mid 2000's are coming out, does it mean these are not sequential and numbers can skip?

 

[Trips]

I was expecting to get a SR in March but might have to get the LR to make sure I do not miss out on the full tax credit. $55,000 LR with $7,500 tax credit is going to be the choice over a $46,000 SR with maybe a $3,750 tax credit. This would only make the LR cost $5,250 extra vs the SR.

 

[Trips]

Is end of Q1 March-end? I know quarters vary from company to company.

I am not a shareholder but interested in a m3.

Yes, they are talking about hitting a rate of 5,000/week at the end of March. Originally they were talking about December.

 

[206er]

Yes, they are talking about hitting a rate of 5,000/week at the end of March. Originally they were talking about December.

Ugh.

 

[Tonymil]

It's time Tesla took down this graphic:

 

[jsmay311]

It's time Tesla took down this graphic:
View attachment 257644

And maybe update the estimated delivery dates for folks with reservations.

 

[SouthFLGuy]

Hmm.. not good. I mean you have Jaguar and the I-Pace coming up soon in 2018. And other car manufacturers pouring resources into EV.

 

[comanchepilot]

Has anyone discovered the bottleneck?

Is it batteries? Components? Screens? Chips? Bodies on the line?

 

[chibi_kurochan]

Has anyone discovered the bottleneck?

Is it batteries? Components? Screens? Chips? Bodies on the line?

Paraphrasing the conference call:

There are 4 zones in battery module assembly @ gigafactory.
zone 1 and 2, especially 2 are the issue.
sub-contractor messed up the automation, tesla had to re-write the software / automation from scratch..

Tesla gives update on Model 3 production problems, delays ramp up by 3 months
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...3-7EC4E06DF840/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-3Q.pdf

It has now been confirmed by Tesla in their shareholder’s letter:

“To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.”

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Hmm.. not good. I mean you have Jaguar and the I-Pace coming up soon in 2018. And other car manufacturers pouring resources into EV.

I-Pace won't be out in volumes to threaten Model 3's planned volumes. The only thing I-Pace can capture from Model 3 is some hasty European customers. And I say this as someone interested in the I-Pace. It is not a threat to Model 3. I-Pace is for a different group of buyers mostly and not a big group at that.

 

[C141medic]

Has anyone discovered the bottleneck?

Is it batteries? Components? Screens? Chips? Bodies on the line?

From Teslarati “Tesla did not disclose in its Q3 letter the number of Model 3 units produced in the fourth quarter thus far, but did identify Model 3’s production bottlenecks to be that of the battery module line at Gigafactory 1.”

 

[jsrawa]

I was expecting to get a SR in March but might have to get the LR to make sure I do not miss out on the full tax credit. $55,000 LR with $7,500 tax credit is going to be the choice over a $46,000 SR with maybe a $3,750 tax credit. This would only make the LR cost $5,250 extra vs the SR.

I was expecting the same as I just don’t drive enough to need the LR but if it means LR with full credit vs SR with half then I think I’d go LR.

 

[X Fan]

Quite frankly given their multi year experience in battery production this one is a shocker.

But...based on my X experience, I always figured my delivery wouldn't be until April vs Tesla's oct-dec so there's that

 

[Waiting4M3]

It's time Tesla took down this graphic:
View attachment 257644

I fixed it. Obviously whatever Tesla has already done for the last 2 years is completely irrelevant, so I'm resetting them back to 0 cars starting from Nov. Also, Elon said to assume the worst, what can be worse than 0, right?

 

[jchau]

over promise, under deliver

 

[iwannam3]

It has now been confirmed by Tesla in their shareholder’s letter:

“To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.”

So if the battery pack is the holdup, there must be hundreds of assembled cars minus the battery sitting in the factory lot somewhere since lack of battery pack would have no impact on vehicle production.

 

[UZJedi]

So if the battery pack is the holdup, there must be hundreds of assembled cars minus the battery sitting in the factory lot somewhere since lack of battery pack would have no impact on vehicle production.

Not necessarily. Given the complexities of production, battery installation might *have* to take place prior to some other parts of the car being assembled. With automation being so finely tuned, I doubt you can switch up the production sequence too much without slowing things way down. And some resequencing could be almost impossible.

 

[iwannam3]

Not necessarily. Given the complexities of production, battery installation might *have* to take place prior to some other parts of the car being assembled.

Has there been any discussion of the M3 pack not being easily swap-able like the S and X?

 

[mond81]

I can't say I'm surprised, I basically planned for it being delayed. Is anyone surprised? You'd think that when saying deliveries to begin in October, the order invites would have gone out in September. October went by, with no invites...I'm surprised there was no thread started before about why the invites had not been heard of yet so close to 'production start' ...