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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Just my 0.02 here, and musings about Omicron.
I believe this is a substantially LESS lethal variant than Delta or the original strain. We're almost a full 4 weeks since classification of this variant by the WHO as "of concern" status and have seen remarkable spread of the variant to all corners of the globe. That means that death data should be showing up now from infections, especially in places like South Africa and the UK which are ahead of the curve in infections compared to other parts of the world. And baring something that I have completely missed, the death rate is much lower than we have seen previously.
Yes, an argument can be made that circumstances are different because more people are vaccinated + boosted, partially vaccinated, etc., but given the number of vaccine-hesitant and obstinate people, we have some good test groups that we will be obtaining data from in the near future.
Overall, I'm "cautiously optimistic", and I could not say the same with Delta. Not saying this is down to "common cold" status, or even seasonal influenza level, yet. But I believe we are witnessing the endemic transition with this variant.
Once markets pick up on this, we are going to have a substantial macro "pop". NOT ADVICE - but I'm buying the dip right now.
I believe this is a substantially LESS lethal variant than Delta or the original strain. We're almost a full 4 weeks since classification of this variant by the WHO as "of concern" status and have seen remarkable spread of the variant to all corners of the globe. That means that death data should be showing up now from infections, especially in places like South Africa and the UK which are ahead of the curve in infections compared to other parts of the world. And baring something that I have completely missed, the death rate is much lower than we have seen previously.
Yes, an argument can be made that circumstances are different because more people are vaccinated + boosted, partially vaccinated, etc., but given the number of vaccine-hesitant and obstinate people, we have some good test groups that we will be obtaining data from in the near future.
Overall, I'm "cautiously optimistic", and I could not say the same with Delta. Not saying this is down to "common cold" status, or even seasonal influenza level, yet. But I believe we are witnessing the endemic transition with this variant.
Once markets pick up on this, we are going to have a substantial macro "pop". NOT ADVICE - but I'm buying the dip right now.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
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I moved to the right a bit in my 30's or 40's: I used to be a communist. Now I'm a socialist. 73 years old. Fully vaccinated and boosted. And I'll get the next booster whenever it comes out and is available to my category. I knew people who had had polio and were partially crippled by it.
Yes. My aunt died of polio when I was in first grade. Polio would still be endemic if people had the same silly attitude they have today.
I'm not yet that far - kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
At least here in the USA, looking at the post by from scottff200 right after yours, Omnicron went from 12-75% of new cases in 1 WEEK!
Those pie charts must by pretty close to fully be purple (Omnicron) right now, just a couple days later after the last date on the chart and fully purple by Christmas.
Looking at the case rates, I suspect we will see a surge that equals at least the peak case rate from last year, and probably more given how readily Omnicron spreads. People are taking far fewer precautions this year - between most people assuming that they will be fine because they are vaccinated - or those who don't think the vaccines make a difference, I expect just huge numbers of cases by the first week of January.
How that translates to hospitalizations... well, at least in San Diego the case rate is firmly turning up now and hospitalizations right behind...
worldometers.info is showing similar upturns in daily cases and hospitalizations and deaths as well.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The cult is beyond repair. Not sure where to post this - but required reading for everyone. Most of us have no idea how bad the cult is.
One thing we won't know until months down the road is whether Omicron causes the same levels of long COVID as previous variants. If it does, the long term outlook won't be much better than from other variants. I hope Omicron is the much milder variant that you have been talking about that will become the variant going forward, but considering how contagious it is, people are going to probably be getting sick with this in huge numbers every year. The norm may be like a bad flu year every year.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'll take my educated guess on that one now: I doubt the same degree of long COVID will be associated with Omicron. Why do I say this? Because we have good data now that viral replication of Omicron is much less in the lungs than Delta and prior variants. It is the lung damage that causes the bulk of long COVID symptoms (not all, but by far the bulk).
I'm not all roses, we are not out of this yet, not a by a long shot. More people will die, many more. But I do believe there is finally a light at the end of this tunnel, and it is NOT the train barreling down towards us.
Almost everyday my wife has stories about the patients she has seen that day who deny reality and what the latest craziness about COVID is. As soon as they start off on the anti-vax delusions and the crazy cures she shuts them down and tells them to just stop talking. She is as tired of hearing their insanity as she is of hearing me tell her to retire as the money isn't worth the harassment, the aggravation and the potential violence Though if Musk keeps dumping shares we may not be so rich much longer. She keeps saying she loves her job and she's good at it so she won't let them drive her away. Thankfully she has only been verbally attacked, never physically. But that's why she won't even try to discuss vaccination with these people. She does with people who she thinks are persuadable. At some point even she will crack from this. She is starting to think about retiring at least. Anyone know of a place where these nut jobs are in the very small minority?
Terminator857
Active Member
Are you familiar with the history of the polio vaccine? It took many years before the polio vaccine was widely accepted. Many years after the polio vaccine was invented there were still people dying of it.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I consider the muscle pain in the arm a non issue.
But the dehydration was a bigger issue. I drank easily twice as much today as I normally would and it still wasn't enough at times. Really surprised me how I had less output and how dark it got if I didn't drink copious fluids.
My partner has long COVID and my doctor thinks I may have a mild case. In my case my mild asthma got worse after getting the vaccine, but most of my partner's symptoms are central nervous system related. She's in a study for long COVID and apparently a lot of the people suffering long COVID have central nervous system issues. Her neurofeedback therapist can now spot long COVID in a brain map, there are patterns of dysfunction that appear. He's treating a lot of people with it.
I hope Omicron is milder across the board. We'll know more by spring. A large percentage of the world will probably have had it by then (even if prior immunity resulted in a very mild case).
Widely accepted where? As far as I'm aware, as soon as the Salk vaccine became available people lined up to get it, and then also got the Sabin vaccine when it became available.
Not saying your conclusion is wrong as I don’t know the history, but people lined up for the COViD vaccine as well. As with the booster shot. Clearly in this case, just because people lined up to get the vaccine doesn’t mean it was widely accepted.
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I don't say there weren't any that were on the not accepting side, but there were school programs to get everyone vaccinated (unlike today), and I never heard parents protest about their kids being vaccinated, and usually the parents got vaccinated as well--at least in the places where I lived.
Again, not disagreeing with your conclusion. Especially since it sounds like you lived through it. But sounds like you are basing your conclusion on your specific experience and what you saw. If it wasn’t for national 24/7 news I would have the same conclusion about the COViD vaccine based on my experience and community I live in. For example, We have school programs to get all the kids vaccinated as you mentioned, lines were massive and demand exceeded supply for the vaccine for awhile. now we have the same issue with booster shots…everyone I talk to is trying to get an appointment but tough to get because demand exceeds supply right now.
Again, not disagreeing with you, just playing devil advocate. Your conclusion is probably right but would be interesting to see actual data to see how quickly the polio vaccine was accepted to see if it would give any insight into how long it may take to convince more of our population to take the COViD vaccine. My County is at 85%(for adults) but it’s my understanding that other areas of the country are a lot lower.
Krugerrand
Meow
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Living near such a place I'd say look for rural areas near small liberal college towns. Low enough population density you can easily avoid people while having enough nearby mostly functioning infrastructure with an educated population when you can't.
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