Coronavirus

[TespaceX]

This young man unfortunately learned it the hard way.

'I thought this was a hoax' | 30-year-old patient dies in local hospital after attending 'COVID Party'

 

[jerry33]

What is a spine ?

it's that item that most politicians have had removed at birth.

 

[jbcarioca]

Very informative, thanks. A couple more questions if I may:

What is the mask compliance, and how is it enforced ?
Is ventilation in public bldgs an issue ?
What is a spine ?

The mask compliance seems very high from what I see. My young family members describe total compliance among them and their booze-happy cohort. The couple people I know in slums do use masks. Even garbage collectors wear masks. Allegedly there are fines fir non-compliance. I don’t know if that really happens. The non-maskers probably have no money to,pay anyway.

ventilation in all buildings is a big issue IMHO. That is a major risk IMHO

Spine= backbone. Crivella, the Mayor is an Evangelical Bishop and works very hard to devote public resources to his religious agenda. That is not bradly accepted, but more effort is going to impeach Witzel, the Governor and Bolsonaro, the President.

As we are prone to say, Brazil tends to follow the lead of the US, fir good or ill. Right now it’s for I’ll.

In this mess, it’s astounding that my home city actually is managing this crisis fairly well. The presence of Fiocruz and Petrobras in the city enhances the influence of science in public policy. Not in votes, but sometimes in policy.

This said, quoting my brother-in-law “ I hardly can believe this, but we’re doing something right, for the first time since Fernando Henrique [Cardoso]”.
FHC introduced the Real, ended high inflation aand introduced a university basic income”. That set off more than a decade of steady growth and reduced income inequality.

 

[SageBrush]

Spine= backbone.

Sorry -- that was meant as flippant commentary on garden variety American politicians

 

[TespaceX]

It’s getting interesting in Alameda County (where Tesla manuf. is located).

Late yesterday evening, the county was notified by the state that outdoor dining must be stopped. However, this morning, many city leaders throughout the county stated that they will not enforce this new guideline. However, they also reminded business leaders that state officials can still enforce and issue violations and, in that case, the cities will not do anything about it.

Basically, these city leaders are saying, they’re going to ignore the new guideline and let business owners do their thing at their own risk regarding outdoor dining. Outdoor dining should be fine. However, I’ve driven by many outdoor dining restaurants where the tables might be 6 feet but not the diners. The people are more like 3 feet apart. (There must be some kind of rule about this?)

 

[linux-works]

at this point, the trumpers are just going to have to 'reduce their numbers' (that phrase, while cold, gives a warm feeling. and I hate that, but its true) before the US can pull out of this.

the whole world is doing better. we, the US, we have something to 'prove' it seems.

and we'll 'prove' it to our very graves.

sorry world, we did like visiting you, but for your own sake, you should not allow americans to enter your countries until this is all sorted out.

 

[Earthpower]

Musk should read some history about the 1918 flu pandemic . Go to Mars with him but don't follow his medical advice! Our science is so much better now, but somehow a large enough part of our society doesn't believe in science or expertise anymore. They discount the medical discoveries learned the past 100 years. Not all our leaders have used science to address the pandemic. Our public health sysems have been destroyed financially. Given these developments, we're no better off than the poor souls in 1918. At that time, science knew little about viruses. The docs were looking for a bacterial cause that they never found. We know how to stop pandemics now but there must be the will to do so and an embrace of medical science. Unfortunately, we are all in for a scary ride. Be safe.

 

[Dave EV]

It’s getting interesting in Alameda County (where Tesla manuf. is located).

Late yesterday evening, the county was notified by the state that outdoor dining must be stopped. However, this morning, many city leaders throughout the county stated that they will not enforce this new guideline. However, they also reminded business leaders that state officials can still enforce and issue violations and, in that case, the cities will not do anything about it.

Basically, these city leaders are saying, they’re going to ignore the new guideline and let business owners do their thing at their own risk regarding outdoor dining. Outdoor dining should be fine. However, I’ve driven by many outdoor dining restaurants where the tables might be 6 feet but not the diners. The people are more like 3 feet apart. (There must be some kind of rule about this?)

Eh? There's a bit more nuance than that - they have applied for a variance from state orders to allow outdoor dining since they believe that outdoor dining exposes people to minimal risk of exposure based on their data.

Similarly, they applied for a similar variance to allow the Oakland Zoo to remain open using similar logic (keep outdoors open, close indoors areas, masks required, etc).

The latest data does appear to confirm that indoor interactions are the highest risk and source of most community outbreaks and outdoor activities basically non-existent provided social distancing is practiced.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

at this point, the trumpers are just going to have to 'reduce their numbers' (that phrase, while cold, gives a warm feeling. and I hate that, but its true) before the US can pull out of this.

the whole world is doing better. we, the US, we have something to 'prove' it seems.

and we'll 'prove' it to our very graves.

sorry world, we did like visiting you, but for your own sake, you should not allow americans to enter your countries until this is all sorted out.

A couple of weeks ago they polled Canadians to find out what kind of support the goverment would have to re-open the border on July 21st. 81 percent

at this point, the trumpers are just going to have to 'reduce their numbers' (that phrase, while cold, gives a warm feeling. and I hate that, but its true) before the US can pull out of this.

the whole world is doing better. we, the US, we have something to 'prove' it seems.

and we'll 'prove' it to our very graves.

sorry world, we did like visiting you, but for your own sake, you should not allow americans to enter your countries until this is all sorted out.

We are in BC Canada. A couple weeks ago they polled the country to find out what kind of support our politicians would have to re-open the border on the 21st of July as US politicians have been banging on the door to get the border open ASAP. The result was 81 percent sayng keep it closed till at least the new year. Apparently a re-poll this week has now hit 86 percent. Don't think it will be opening anytime soon. Commerce and shipping continue with restrictions.

 

[TespaceX]

Eh? There's a bit more nuance than that - they have applied for a variance from state orders to allow outdoor dining since they believe that outdoor dining exposes people to minimal risk of exposure based on their data.

Similarly, they applied for a similar variance to allow the Oakland Zoo to remain open.

The latest data does appear to confirm that indoor interactions are the highest risk and source of most community outbreaks and outdoor activities basically non-existent provided social distancing is practiced.

Correction.

They will apply for a variance as a response since that’s the logical next step.

The Oakland Zoo just applied for a variance within the past couple days. As of now, remains closed, not open.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Correction.

They will apply for a variance as a response since that’s the logical next step.

The Oakland Zoo just applied for a variance within the past couple days. As of now, remains closed, not open.

Yep, this is a good idea to not have any indoor dining. Nearly all the outbreaks in San Diego are from restaurants and bars (17 of 24 last I checked). We no longer have indoor dining.

The San Diego Zoo is also outdoor operations only.

A gym has popped onto the list, so not clear how long those will remain open. Obviously it is the definition of insanity to go to the gym.

Nationwide:
Cases still increasing. Some evidence of flattening positivity rate & flattening case counts in AZ, which is good. It's possible masking & such may be having some effect now. Or it may be temporary, and they may get hammered by the July 4th fallout this week. Anyway, it's not going to do anyone any good to have 3000+ cases getting generated on a daily basis, and there's not a lot of evidence of any significant reduction in transmission yet. Just a small reduction.

I'm not sure whether we'll get to 100k cases a day very soon - but potentially it could happen by the end of this week. In the short term, it depends just how bad, TX, FL, and CA get. There are a lot of other states where ramping is taking place, too (Georgia, SC, NC, NV, etc.), so even if some of those big states flatten (and I hope they do), we could still approach 100k cases fairly soon. It also depends on how much testing gets ramped up.

covid19-projections.com is up to 212k deaths projected. Youyang Gu has stated that his model is likely to lag, and is working to make it respond more quickly to sudden ramping. He's estimating 275k infections per day. So about 1 in 4 cases getting caught. Gonna be tough to contain... I expect we've basically baked in 230k deaths at this point, if we made all the right moves from here.

CDC has updated the true IFR to 0.65% (not symptomatic IFR) from their very low ~0.4% sIFR they had before (which worked out to something like 0.26% IFR since only 65% of cases were symptomatic). That's good for planning purposes, and seems very reasonable based on what we know. Obviously depends a lot on who gets infected - I suspect recent infections (last 3 weeks or so) will have lower IFR that that, but going forward I think we'll trend up towards that number.

So putting those numbers together, this means we may well see deaths near 2000 deaths a day by the end of July (even though his model does not predict this...).

I think we'll exceed 1000 deaths a day this coming week, and we'll approach 1500 a day by the end of the following week. Just a guess. Texas, California, and Florida all produced maximum daily death reports today, and I expect that to continue. AZ will likely set records this coming week as well and the others will continue...so it's going to add up.

I'm not sure how we're going to stop this now. Not impossible of course, but I think it's quite difficult without restricting movement.

 

[madodel]

Yep, this is a good idea to not have any indoor dining. Nearly all the outbreaks in San Diego are from restaurants and bars (17 of 24 last I checked). We no longer have indoor dining.

The San Diego Zoo is also outdoor operations only.

A gym has popped onto the list, so not clear how long those will remain open. Obviously it is the definition of insanity to go to the gym.

Nationwide:
Cases still increasing. Some evidence of flattening positivity rate & flattening case counts in AZ, which is good. It's possible masking & such may be having some effect now. Or it may be temporary, and they may get hammered by the July 4th fallout this week. Anyway, it's not going to do anyone any good to have 3000+ cases getting generated on a daily basis, and there's not a lot of evidence of any significant reduction in transmission yet. Just a small reduction.

I'm not sure whether we'll get to 100k cases a day very soon - but potentially it could happen by the end of this week. In the short term, it depends just how bad, TX, FL, and CA get. There are a lot of other states where ramping is taking place, too (Georgia, SC, NC, NV, etc.), so even if some of those big states flatten (and I hope they do), we could still approach 100k cases fairly soon. It also depends on how much testing gets ramped up.

covid19-projections.com is up to 212k deaths projected. Youyang Gu has stated that his model is likely to lag, and is working to make it respond more quickly to sudden ramping. He's estimating 275k infections per day. So about 1 in 4 cases getting caught. Gonna be tough to contain... I expect we've basically baked in 230k deaths at this point, if we made all the right moves from here.

CDC has updated the true IFR to 0.65% (not symptomatic IFR) from their very low ~0.4% sIFR they had before (which worked out to something like 0.26% IFR since only 65% of cases were symptomatic). That's good for planning purposes, and seems very reasonable based on what we know. Obviously depends a lot on who gets infected - I suspect recent infections (last 3 weeks or so) will have lower IFR that that, but going forward I think we'll trend up towards that number.

So putting those numbers together, this means we may well see deaths near 2000 deaths a day by the end of July (even though his model does not predict this...).

I think we'll exceed 1000 deaths a day this coming week, and we'll approach 1500 a day by the end of the following week. Just a guess. Texas, California, and Florida all produced maximum daily death reports today, and I expect that to continue. AZ will likely set records this coming week as well and the others will continue...so it's going to add up.

I'm not sure how we're going to stop this now. Not impossible of course, but I think it's quite difficult without restricting movement.

This is just crazy. Germany has 82 million people and they have daily COVID19 new cases of less than 400. How stupid has the US become that such a large number can't follow such simple rules just to save itself?

 

[wdolson]

This is coming from the Chinese embassy in Kazakhstan and the government there is denying it, but it might mean something
Deadly 'unknown pneumonia' outbreak in Kazakhstan is probably undiagnosed COVID-19 | Live Science

If the death rate is higher from this outbreak, it's possible this is a more deadly mutation of COVID.

 

[dfwatt]

This is coming from the Chinese embassy in Kazakhstan and the government there is denying it, but it might mean something
Deadly 'unknown pneumonia' outbreak in Kazakhstan is probably undiagnosed COVID-19 | Live Science

If the death rate is higher from this outbreak, it's possible this is a more deadly mutation of COVID.

No basis for safely concluding anything like that. We have no statistics, and this is a country not famous for its openness or transparency about anything. It's probably just covid-19 that has been running amok.

 

[byeLT4]

There are ~ 500,000 deaths from Covid-19. Widen your net

Eh? I am completely aware of that. I used to follow 'worldometers' religiously. All I am trying to say is that locally it would be nice to get some info on how/why this happened. If I can't even get reliable information on what happened locally from people I know, do I really expect it from a news source or the 'gubment?

No info today on the younger pair from the county's web page. However another elderly lady in her 80s has passed. We are up to 11 reported deaths, 82 new cases today, 1754 total from a county with a population of 90k.

 

[dhanson865]

So if you have a SAH, Phase 1, Phase 2, what would you name the next step? Silly me I call it Phase 3.

TN calls it "Tennessee Pledge".

So Knox county had an old plan cached here Phased Reopening Plan

This section includes information for each of the three phases. Phase One begins on May 1, 2020. Phase One includes more detailed information regarding reopening, while the other two phases serve as a broad framework that will be enhanced through a collaborative process with the community. By focusing on Phase One, the framework contains room for Phase Two and Phase Three to address emerging challenges and opportunities that may present themselves on the road ahead. The COVID-19 coordinator email listserv will be the main way employers and others can contribute ideas for the development of Phase Two and Phase Three reopening strategies that will be found under “specific types of employers & organizations.”

Mid-phase adjustments, such as reducing business sector capacity or requiring the wearing of cloth face coverings in certain settings instead of strongly recommending them, may be issued in order to protect phase progress.

A minimum of 28 days will be spent in each phase regardless of whether the benchmarks are met at an earlier timepoint. The phased reopening is not a return to pre-pandemic normal, and the phased plan presents a pathway for reopening that relies on the Five Core Actions we must all consistently take to reduce the spread of COVID-19. They include physical distancing, wearing cloth face coverings, handwashing, cleaning surfaces, and staying home if you are sick or instructed to isolate/quarantine. We will only be able to safely maintain our reopening efforts if all of us commit to maintaining these

Five Core Actions. There are general guidelines that apply to all three phases. These general guidelines provide information that expands on the Five Core Actions, outlining specific ways individuals, higher-risk individuals and organizations can protect health and safety as we reopen

• SAH started March 24th
• Phase 1 started May 1
• Phase 2 started May 26 (2 days earlier than the 28 days per phase rule)
• Phase 3 was to start when the metrics allowed (but that never happened, by the metrics we should not be in phase 3 now)

On June 17th a vote was taken saying that in 2 weeks (14 days) Knox County would no longer have a separate plan from TN. TN moved to phase 3 June 22nd. So for Knox county the start was:

• Phase 3 started July 1

and if there is to be a phase 4 or a regression to phase 2 or any other change that is all being done at the state level now.

and Tennessee Pledge is the official URL. It's officially called "Tennesee Pledge" not phase 3.

 

[Dr. J]

"Tennessee Pledge"

Maybe it's a virus-killing furniture polish? That can be taken internally?

 

[wdolson]

No basis for safely concluding anything like that. We have no statistics, and this is a country not famous for its openness or transparency about anything. It's probably just covid-19 that has been running amok.

It is quite possible they are just having a bad outbreak and not willing to admit it. At this point it's just a datapoint. Hopefully somebody is investigating what it is. We will either be hearing more about it, or it will just vanish into the internet noise. We'll see.

 

[ReddykwRun]

So you're thinking that MSNBC photoshopped the black lives matter in front of Trump Tower and it's all fake news?

Ok, well, fine, here's a link from what you would consider to be a more more "trust-worthy" source:
Curtis Hill: Black Lives Matter movement should prioritize Black fatherhood to improve Black lives

because Fox will NEVER create fake content right... ?

View attachment 563087

"The “Black Lives Matter” movement is partnered with the nonprofit group, Thousand Currents. This is important because the Vice Chair of the Thousand Currents nonprofit, is Susan Rosenberg. Susan Rosenberg is a convicted terrorist. In 1985, Rosenberg was convicted for possessing hundreds of pounds of explosives. She and her organizations involved in multiple robberies, police officer assassinations, and bombings. Rosenberg was sentenced to 58 years in prison. She spent 16-years in federal prison before being pardoned by Bill Clinton on his last day in office. Now, Rosenberg is leading the fundraising efforts for Black Lives Matter. ..." Posted: July 9, 2020, KUSI Newsroom (KUSI-TV is an independent television station licensed to San Diego, California)

 

[AZRI11]

Interesting data from the CDC. We had 10 consecutive weeks of excessive deaths in the USA. Deaths reported are delayed by a few weeks. This is data that should be reported by MSM but of course is not. Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)