This. Tesla is prioritizing profit, and will skip orders to do so. Simple.
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Discussion: Model Y General Waiting room for orders placed After January 2023
- Thread starter acpd
- Start date
Here's one plausible explanation. When the IRA limit on MYs was $55k many of the orders were for 19s, opting to chose an upgraded color or towing instead in order to stay below the threshold. This macro behavior resulted in a glut of 20s that Tesla perhaps did not anticipate. I discussed this with an SA and he agreed that is what happened. Maybe he was privy to inside information that we do not have, maybe not. But it is plausible.
When I changed my order from white interior to black, resulting in a price reduction, I was assigned an earlier EDD. Others who did the same had similar results. I believe it's because white interior MYs are produced in far fewer numbers and in only one of the factories.
This is the last I'm going to respond on this topic. I think its POINTLESS and a waste of time to try to change each others minds.
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I feel too many people have EDDs in March that will not be met and the deliveries will go into April. For myself, I anticipate that if I don't get VIN assigned in a week or 10 days, I won't be able to get the car by end of March. There is an MYLR W/B with 20" rims available in inventory here right now. I don't like the 20" rims but am tempted to edit design 
holdmybeer
Member
Simply ... supply and demand. The price drop in January created a spike in demand for 19-inch rims and a drop for 20- and 21-inch rims. It takes time for the supplier to catch up.
Tesla orders rims months in advance. Tesla probably planned to sell a specific percentage of vehicles with upgraded rims in January and February. They ordered the rims from suppliers months earlier. This was before the initial IRS determination of $55,000 for the Model Y 5-seater to get the tax break and before the price drop in January. Since there was little wiggle room on configurations with the first price drop on January 13th, the configurations ordered in January were disproportionally with 19-inch rims.
Sometimes, I share this suspicion. Other times, I realize they're going to have to fill all orders eventually and don't believe Tesla will delay a lower-margin order on purpose - they can have that tooth pulled now or later, but it must be pulled at some point.
I believe that most penny-pinching buyers like me who are holding out for $52,990-$7,500 will continue to do so, won't "give in" to the possibility that Tesla is prioritizing vehicles by margin, and will eventually get their vehicles in a reasonable about of time. If the full credit is no longer available on delivery day, then, well, there will be a lot of extra Model Ys sitting in inventory and they're going to be harder to sell without the full tax credit.
That's just my theory, but what do I know?
This is where I think Tesla is probably "gaming" the system at least a little bit, with high demand they can afford to keep the customers anxious - some folks backs are against the wall thanks to the confusion over the EV Credits deadline and are desperate to switch usually for a higher price. This works for Tesla in 2 ways - increased profit margin AND helps clear out inventory of "older" 2023 vehicles. If you cancel the order then that's basically free money..I feel too many people have EDDs in March that will not be met and the deliveries will go into April. For myself, I anticipate that if I don't get VIN assigned in a week or 10 days, I won't be able to get the car by end of March. There is an MYLR W/B with 20" rims available in inventory here right now. I don't like the 20" rims but am tempted to edit design
While I'm not sure it was Tesla's exact intention to do this given the sudden crush of the demand (you do actually have to fill those orders eventually) it certainly has worked out nicely for them..
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I wonder how many people ordered the car in spite of the tax credits?Sometimes, I share this suspicion. Other times, I realize they're going to have to fill all orders eventually and don't believe Tesla will delay a lower-margin order on purpose - they can have that tooth pulled now or later, but it must be pulled at some point.
I believe that most penny-pinching buyers like me who are holding out for $52,990-$7,500 will continue to do so, won't "give in" to the possibility that Tesla is prioritizing vehicles by margin, and will eventually get their vehicles in a reasonable about of time. If the full credit is no longer available on delivery day, then, well, there will be a lot of extra Model Ys sitting in inventory and they're going to be harder to sell without the full tax credit.
That's just my theory, but what do I know?
It would be nice if Tesla told customers, "We are experiencing longer-than-expected lead times from our supplier for 19" wheels. If you would like to change your order to 20" wheels, we estimate we could improve the lead time for your order by approximately 4 weeks."
You make a good point, though - I assume Tesla uses the JIT production method so regardless of when components were orders, they won't be manufactured for weeks, days, or even hours before they're needed on the production line. Tesla has a maximum number of vehicles they can make over a specific amount of time and the same holds true for their wheel supplier(s). If demand for 19" wheels exceeded their supplier's output, then Tesla isn't going to just stop making vehicles - they're going to make vehicles with the wheels they do have available and if a vehicle matches an order early, then great. If not, then it goes into inventory where it will sell within minutes to someone else.
I'm sure "many" were tempted by the 20% price drop alone and any tax credit would just be a "bonus". My brother-in-law seems to think this way. When I told him about the price drop and tax credit last month, he decided to go ahead and order a Model Y 2-3 years earlier than originally planned. When I explained to him about the possibility of the tax credit no longer being available on delivery day, he seemed indifferent towards it and even commented something like, "If I get it, I get it and if I don't, I don't." I, on the other hand, am not as interested in an EV as he is and would not have ordered without the tax credit. He's already sold his other vehicle, but I'm hanging on to mine until or unless I take delivery of a Model Y.
Same boat here. And frankly, I’m tired of funding all this stuff and getting none of it. I got a portion of the first stimulus, then nothing… now potentially losing a tax credit the last year I’m going to be eligible? It’s disgraceful. Will definitely cancel if I miss the credit, and will wait for competitors to catch up. This has left a horrible taste in my mouth and I’m over it. As taxpayers, we shouldn’t be okay with basically a “lottery” to see if you’ll make it in time. It’s all so tiresome.
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I wonder what the percentage of Fremont-built Model Ys are delivered to Texas buyers compared to Austin-built Model Ys. Considering Austin-built vehicles must be shipped out of state, sold to a Texas buyer, then shipped back into the state, I wonder if it's no less of a hassle to ship a vehicle from Fremont.
One would assume, that despite the MY being quite a bit ahead of its competition and generally available in greater quantities its demand would still be highly elastic like most automobiles. Because the tax credits and the price drops happened hand in hand its really difficult to gauge what caused the majority of the spike in demand though it's likely a combination of both. I for one will probably defer buying the Tesla if majority of the tax credit goes away because I'm in a position where I can delay purchase of a new vehicle and its a nice to have and not a need right now. The tax incentives were what drove me towards the vehicle because this would be the last year where I would be able to qualify for those and I found that as a great way to upgrade into a Tesla...and I believe in the longer term (2-3 years) prices for EVs should drop because of increased volume and competition..'m sure many are in a similar boat.
Last year I qualify, too. They keep taking your $$, and diluting your savings by printing, printing, printing, but god forbid you qualify for a small $7,500 incentive when you make too much. The people that vote for this *sugar* are truly lost souls.
Our ICE vehicles are getting quite old and need to be replaced but we still have time. Our primary motivation for ordering a MYLR was the price drop and not the tax credits. Other factors were the charging network, efficiency, and just plain nerd lust (me).
I know people rag on the Bolt (and justifiably so) but growing pains aside it might make for a great "around the town" secondary vehicle for those that need one unless Tesla introduces a new sub $30K model with comparable specs.
Its clear that the price reduction alone would have resulted in a huge increase in demand. The tax credits just added to that which is why we are where we're at with delays and EDD changes/fluctuations. If my vehicle is delivered when the tax credit are still applicable, I would pay around $55K for a MSM MYP once factoring in the sales tax and destination charges (and taking out the credit). That is about the high end of what I would pay for a vehicle and just like you "nerd lust" is a huge driver with me as well. I currently drive a 4runner with sub 25K miles on it so getting another vehicle is certainly a nice to have and not a pressing need.
Maybe they have excess inventory of MY with 20" wheels ready to ship or maybe they just have a surplus of 20" wheels readily available to install and deliver. Thousands of pieces of material have to be in the right place at the right time to assemble a vehicle. If they're short, they will assemble what they have rather than shut down an assembly line. There are too many variables to to consider to simply say they're attempting to maximize profits. In a way, yes that's prioritizing profits but it makes more sense than stopping production and sending workers home.
MYLR, white/black/19"
OD: 1/20
EDD: Jan - Mar 2023 (original)
EDD: March 3 - March 31 (updated 1/25)
EDD: February 23 - March 23 (updated 2/14)
EDD: February 25 - March 11 (updated 2/23)
EDD: February 26 - March 11 (updated 2/26)
EDD: February 27 - March 11 (updated 2/27)
At least the later date isn't changing...yet.
My brother-in-law's dates keep increasing by one day every day on both ends.
OD: 1/20
EDD: Jan - Mar 2023 (original)
EDD: March 3 - March 31 (updated 1/25)
EDD: February 23 - March 23 (updated 2/14)
EDD: February 25 - March 11 (updated 2/23)
EDD: February 26 - March 11 (updated 2/26)
EDD: February 27 - March 11 (updated 2/27)
At least the later date isn't changing...yet.
My brother-in-law's dates keep increasing by one day every day on both ends.
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