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Don’t order SR or MR if your winter is cold.

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I'm in general agreement with this post, in particular I worry about all the folks I that are waiting for SR because they think they only need 220 miles of range. Many of these people have never owned an EV before so they don't realize things like you don't charge their car 100% every day, and in winter time you may average 30% more usage. The take away for me is most folks in cold climates should get their orders in right now for atleast the MID range Model 3 so they can get the full tax credit.
 
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I'm in general agreement with this post, in particular I worry about all the folks I that are waiting for SR because they think they only need 220 miles of range. Many of these people have never owned an EV before so they don't realize things like you don't charge their car 100% every day, and in winter time you may average 30% more usage. The take away for me is most folks in cold climates should get their orders in right now for atleast the MID range Model 3 so they can get the full tax credit.

I think your right on the money.

There was no choice for all us on LR. But I bet a lot of folks are sure happy shorter range batteries weren’t available because they might have messed up.

For the most part. More battery makes it more convenient. Sometimes WAY more convenient.
 
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Thanks for being honest. Most TMCers have too many TSLA eggs to protect, so they are naturally inclined to dismiss anything remotely negative about Tesla or EVs. I'm surprised that long term followers of EVs are caught off guard. There is a good reason Tesla went with 300+ mile EPA range claim. If you are having some trouble now, what will happen 2-3 years later when the battery itself has lost some ~5-10% capacity? But I must say, driving 150+ miles a day is not a common scenario.


But then, you lose 40-60 mile of range in the super charger detour and cause extra traffic on the road :( Best to get a charger installed at work, if it is at all possible.

Yes, I agree that my case is not typical but nonetheless is my reality.

Good point on the supercharger. I spend half the time charging just recouping miles it took to get there.
 
I'm in general agreement with this post, in particular I worry about all the folks I that are waiting for SR because they think they only need 220 miles of range. Many of these people have never owned an EV before so they don't realize things like you don't charge their car 100% every day, and in winter time you may average 30% more usage. The take away for me is most folks in cold climates should get their orders in right now for atleast the MID range Model 3 so they can get the full tax credit.

Nissan sold 320000 Leafs so there is definitively a market for shorter range car.
 
Range loss in winter is very much a function of the distance and type of driving in addition to the temperature. If you hop in a cold car and drive local roads in traffic for a short distance watts/mile may be 2-3x the normal summer highway watts/mile. You are heating the car using a consistent level of power/minute but only traveling a few miles so the watts used for heating are only divided by a small number of miles. If you drive on the highway at 65 mph then your watts/mile will be much better. When I preheat while plugged in then drive on the highway with outside temperatures in the 20s, my watts/mile increases by 15%-20%. My worst case was being stuck in bumper to bumper traffic in cold, rainy weather taking an hour to go 2-3 miles, my usage was over 1000 watts/mile but this fell back to a normal level once the traffic cleared up.
 
The average american adult drives less than 30 miles per day, total.

That's the mean. (all miles divided by all # of drivers)

The median- the point in the # of miles per driver where half of all results are lower and half higher, is a mere 10 miles a day.

So the idea 220 miles, even with only charging to 90% and then adding overblown 50% winter losses, isn't sufficient for the vast majority of american drivers is factually nonsense.
 
The average american adult drives less than 30 miles per day, total.

That's the mean. (all miles divided by all # of drivers)

The median- the point in the # of miles per driver where half of all results are lower and half higher, is a mere 10 miles a day.

So the idea 220 miles, even with only charging to 90% and then adding overblown 50% winter losses, isn't sufficient for the vast majority of american drivers is factually nonsense.
On average I drive 32 miles a day for work, yet it is 90 miles from home to work and back to home.
How is that possible ?!
 
On average I drive 32 miles a day for work, yet it is 90 miles from home to work and back to home.
How is that possible ?!


Pretty easy math.

But that's why I gave both the median and the mean- it demonstrates your situation is very much not the norm.

Half of respondents reported less than 10 miles of daily driving (the median). Yet the mean is almost 3x that (29.2)

What does that tell us?

if the median is lower then the mean, which it is here, you have major outliers in the high end of the distribution.

So the majority of people drive way less miles than the worst case scenario of even the SR model 3 in dead of winter starting at only 90% charge can handle.

And a much smaller % of people drive a LOT of miles, and should do considerably more research when considering what EV, if any, best suits their needs.

But for most? It's an utter non-issue. (as every leaf buyer in the world tells us for example)
 
But that's why I gave both the median and the mean- it demonstrates your situation is very much not the norm.
No. It demonstrates day to day variability. You keep ascribing the 3x larger average over the mean to a small segment of the population that drive huge amounts when most of answer is just most drivers having relatively infrequent drives that are much greater than their daily commute.
 
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No. It demonstrates day to day variability. You keep ascribing the 3x larger average over the mean to a small segment of the population that drive huge amounts

yes, because that's what the math suggests.

Again- if the median is lower then the mean, which it is here, you have major outliers in the high end of the distribution

when most of answer is just most drivers having relatively infrequent drives that are much greater than their daily commute.


What you have with these numbers is most people drive relatively few miles, and a small number of people drive a lot of them.

The fact the AAA numbers and the Federal Highway Administration almost exactly match, despite them using significantly different methods of data collection supports that- as does the fact that while there was some variability in average daily miles driven by both day or week and by season of the year, the differences ALL remained quite small...(for example day of the week miles drive average ranged from 25 (Sunday) to 32.9 (Monday)... and the average seasonally ranged from 25.7 (winter) to 30.6 (summer).
 
FWIW, I was on a road trip and during the leg after my bathroom, dinner and charging stop here are my unscientific results:

Range after supercharging: 278 (made a choice to charge to 90% and pre-heat the cabin before I got back to the car)
Miles to destination: 127
Temperature: 38-42 degrees Fahrenheit
Cabin temperature: 71
Driving style: spirited (hitting 85 MPH at times but generally driving 79 MPH when the roads were open)
Road type: highway for 120 miles
EAP used a decent amount: 70%-80% of the trip

Miles remaining after destination was reached: 91 (187 miles used....47% more miles than that implied by distance to the destination)

The above is one reason I bought the LR battery. I want to drive how I want without worrying about range. That said, I was shocked at how much range I used by driving so fast in a comfortable cabin when it is cold outside. In my case, LR is a luxury and unnecessary most of the time. I am not a hardcore EV owner who is looking to maximize efficiency, savings and environmental impact. I care about those things but I still want to be able to hop in my car and go, at all times, in all situations without thinking about “fuel.” As an example, at my “destination” I will be trickle charging at 3-5 MPH with a household outlet but I will need to use the car before getting a ton of charge. It is nice to know that I can wake up, grab coffee and bagels and run around a bit before running out of charge. If I had the SR or MR battery I would have to do more thinking about charging and more careful with my driving. That is doable for the average person for most use cases. However, I love the advice of buying the most range you can afford.
 
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As you can see in my signature, I have a "classic" Model S P85+. I live in Calgary where we get as cold as -35˚C and 20-30cm snow dumps. I've always done tire rotations every ~6k km and track economy during that timespan. On my Acura TL, the winter fuel economy (14-14.5 L/100km) was always 30% higher than my summer (10.8-11 L/100km, which is better than EPA combined of 11.2 L/100km).

With my Model S, during the summer, I get 183-188 Wh/km and during winter I get 206-244 Wh/km depending drastically on how much snow is on the road. That's 10% to 33% more energy consumption, which is actually much better than the ICE! So people need to stop misusing the abundance of information the car gives you to delude yourself into thinking this is an EV problem. It's a winter issue that affects all cars.

As others have said, do a 15 minute preheat if it's cold. Not only is all that energy coming from shore power instead of the battery, but the internal resistance of the battery is dramatically reduced with heat. Having said that, that lost energy due to higher resistance creates heat in the battery cells! So your range is actually not that much reduced. Anyone saying the range loss is 50% (in a Tesla) is either speculating based on a rogue 5 minute trip with a cold soaked battery or they're trolling.
 
OPs dogmatic statement may be true for short trips and extravagant heating behaviors.
I live in Colorado and see about a 15 - 20% hit in range on my 45 mile work commute. Longer drives would be less.

"extravagant heating behaviors..." REALLY?
Like trying to keep your car above freezing?
You are not driving an experiment, you are driving a car. Expect more, and stop making excuses for Tesla's shortcomings; few as they may be, they are significant.
 
TLDR. Road trips will be tricky with the SR. Daily driving will be plenty for the majority of users, even in cold weather.
Honestly, "tricky" is even a strong word. I can guarantee you that on the super charger network, if you charge to 90% SOC in the Model 3 SR, you'll be able to make it to the next SC driving the speed limit, even in -40 weather, without worry for at least the first million kilometers of its life.