Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
But it's not remotely comparable. It's not about how many possibilities, it's using current evidence to reach a conclusion. The evidence for the moon landing is strongly in favor of it being legitimate, so we make our probabilistic assessment that it is indeed legitimate. The evidence for simulation is just what Elon stated in his argument - we're going to be able to simulate worlds indistinguishable from our own within a few decades, and we're a relatively young species. So you draw from that evidence what you might.
For me, I don't care what my reality is, I just know it's my reality. So I'm going to play this "game" within the given constraints, based on the evidence I can gather.
Exactly. It's a meta-philosophical notion so it really should have no bearing on how we live our lives.