FIRMWARE UPDATE! AP2 Local road driving...and holy crap

[stopcrazypp]

@stopcrazypp There's a gaping hole in your logic. Because the state of California says that the report does not include any testing performed off public California roads does not mean that Tesla actually did testing off public California roads. If, in fact, they did other testing, then one has to wonder why it took 500 miles on public roads with 177 disengagements to make this brief video. This video was represented to buyers and the public as Tesla Vision, not "advertising." I have a car with Tesla Vision that does less than 1% of what is shown in that video.

For some reason TMC is having problems and ate my post, but here it is again.

I'm not saying just because it does not include off CA testing that it is solid evidence that they must have done testing elsewhere, but rather stories that overfocus on the CA autonomous testing report is inherently misleading because it suggests that this is the full extent (or substantial extent) of testing that Tesla did. This leads to possible outrage as you seem to be having.

My point is mainly it is simply common sense that it is not just that few days of public road driving to get to the point of the Tesla video.

As for interpretation of the video, it seems very clear to me that it is showing FSD, which Tesla did not have a explicit timetable for release at the time (regulatory approval is a huge variable and it's still very early in the development stage). I'm pretty sure that is how most people interpreted it also.

The video title itself says Self-Driving. No mention of EAP (EAP certainly is not self-driving).
Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration

 

[gearchruncher]

The total disconnect is how Tesla could have that level of FSD capability in a codebase somewhere, yet have released the current code as what it wants the public to use.

It's really, really hard to use AP2 right now and not wonder how such an enormous gap exists between their marketing video and reality.

I know the argument exists "two different code bases!" but why? Why would Tesla be developing FSD independent of EAP, and why not just release the EAP features of FSD if FSD is working so well. If FSD can recognize all sorts of street signs, why can't EAP read a speed limit sign yet? That doesn't even have anything to do with the safety of steering the car.

My bet is still on the theory that the FSD videos were made using Mobileye for some of the processing and when they lost that it put them way behind. The only good news there is that once AP2 is working as well as AP1 it might only be a small hop to FSD. But that seems really unlikely.

 

[Bladerskb]

For some reason TMC is having problems and ate my post, but here it is again.

I'm not saying just because it does not include off CA testing that it is solid evidence that they must have done testing elsewhere, but rather stories that overfocus on the CA autonomous testing report is inherently misleading because it suggests that this is the full extent (or substantial extent) of testing that Tesla did. This leads to possible outrage as you seem to be having.

My point is mainly it is simply common sense that it is not just that few days of public road driving to get to the point of the Tesla video.

As for interpretation of the video, it seems very clear to me that it is showing FSD, which Tesla did not have a explicit timetable for release at the time (regulatory approval is a huge variable and it's still very early in the development stage). I'm pretty sure that is how most people interpreted it also.

The video title itself says Self-Driving. No mention of EAP (EAP certainly is not self-driving).
Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration

This line of thinking is naive and downright laughable.

Basically what you are saying is, i got a 1.1 GPA but don't pay attention to it because i'm also going to school at another university taking the same courses and major and i promise you i'm doing way better.

The obvious question is, ifyou are taking the same major some other place then your intelligence and knowledge would translate to this university. But since your GPA is a 1.1, you couldn't possibly be sporting a 3.5 some where else.

if Tesla FSD were so good, then you wouldn't need multiple takes to make a video, you would do it in one attempt. Nor would you have any disengagements. But tesla were having so many problems that they had to delay the announcement because they couldn't get a continual shot. Then they settled for a cut and pasted shot. Only a month later were they able to get a successful end to end drive.

 

[Helmuth]

I think the entire talk about FSD is a little early!
Tesla never promised any of the FSD features soon. It was never a selling point for me!
Even though we paid for it to support Tesla!
They said they are going to show a demo drive from LA to NY by the end of 2017, IF they get everything approved! At this point it will NOT be ready for the fleet!
Nobody could expect to get ANY of the self driving features this year!
And the video back in October was a demonstration video what it will look like.
And honestly, I don't think FSD will be able to drive in all weather and road conditions any time soon. Which means it's (probably) years away...
EAP is a totally different story though! But FSD was never promised for this year and they will deliver next year eventually, depending on regulations...

 

[stopcrazypp]

This line of thinking is naive and downright laughable.

Basically what you are saying is, i got a 1.1 GPA but don't pay attention to it because i'm also going to school at another university taking the same courses and major and i promise you i'm doing way better.

The obvious question is, ifyou are taking the same major some other place then your intelligence and knowledge would translate to this university. But since your GPA is a 1.1, you couldn't possibly be sporting a 3.5 some where else.

if Tesla FSD were so good, then you wouldn't need multiple takes to make a video, you would do it in one attempt. Nor would you have any disengagements. But tesla were having so many problems that they had to delay the announcement because they couldn't get a continual shot. Then they settled for a cut and pasted shot. Only a month later were they able to get a successful end to end drive.

Where did I say FSD is "so good". All I am saying is that even to get to the point for the imperfect demo shot, Tesla must have done a lot of in house simulation testing and also non-public road testing at their own facilities. Just a couple days of public road testing (which according to the article linked was almost all for filming, including 3 days of rain) is not enough to reach that point.

There was actually two videos (both titled Self-Driving, but the one I linked was the latest one), but either one was analyzed extensively in other threads and I think the general consensus is that the software is still rough. Personally, given no timeline promised on the order page, I don't expect the FSD software to be ready for release until more than a year later (regulatory issues aside). However, looking back at the videos in hindsight, the improvement from the October video to the November video is still drastic.

 

[stefan.bc]

I think the entire talk about FSD is a little early!
Tesla never promised any of the FSD features soon. It was never a selling point for me!
Even though we paid for it to support Tesla!
They said they are going to show a demo drive from LA to NY by the end of 2017, IF they get everything approved! At this point it will NOT be ready for the fleet!
Nobody could expect to get ANY of the self driving features this year!
And the video back in October was a demonstration video what it will look like.
And honestly, I don't think FSD will be able to drive in all weather and road conditions any time soon. Which means it's (probably) years away...
EAP is a totally different story though! But FSD was never promised for this year and they will deliver next year eventually, depending on regulations...

Pls tell that to people who leased a car with FSD. So they payed thousands on a feature that they will not see working? Or are you saying no one leased a car with FSD capabilities or that the seller advised against leasing an FSD capable car, because FSD will not be ready for another 1-2 years?

 

[Helmuth]

Is this how I do it?

It is so transparent that TSLA holders are posing as Tesla owners to drown out criticism.

Funny!
I'm NOT a share holder! Not a single share!

Just a Tesla MX 90D owner who got his car January 16, drove over 10,500 miles already and loves his car.
I did my research before I placed my order and knew what I'm going to get! Over time...
And FSD was NOT on top of the list! I knew it will be a loooong way to get the feature delivered!

 

[Doubletap67]

The general public doesn't even know that Tesla has any form of auto pilot, much less that the hardware was recently changed. Many don't even know that Teslas are electric. I've had plenty of people tell me they like Teslas and are then surprised when I tell them they are electric. Hardly anyone knows anything about auto pilot and are usually blown away when I tell them it can steer itself in certain situations.

I was checking the air in my tires at a gas station when a guy got out of his truck near me and said, "nice car, I hear they're really good on gas". I laughed and replied that yeah, I'd probably skip the fill up this time. Was a few minutes before I realized that he might not have been joking.

 

[3Victoria]

That has no connection with the mapping app.
lol it amazes me how fanboys just pull stuff out their behind to further their fandom when they have no clue what they are talking about.
they reach for straws at the bottom of the barrel.

I'm amazed.

1. AP1 is structured as: Mobileye camera/processing-->Tesla code. AP2 is very likely: Tesla camera/processing-->Tesla code. Ie Tesla replacing the Mobileye parts and re-using the rest.
2. The FSD codebase is completely different in structure, likely with AI processing from raw camera all the way to driving (steering, power, brakes). It also must be integrated with route planning, which is likely still in development - hence a rudimentary one 'hacked' for the demo, and the testing during October.
3. For FSD to drive from point A to point B it must use a map. A good guess to 'planner' and 'follower' terms is that they refer to the route planning and the route following parts of the software. The errors in October were commonly errors of these two parts, so easy supposition that this was being developed for the demo.
4. There were no disengagements during the November testing, the weather was dry, matching the demo footage.

 

[Helmuth]

Pls tell that to people who leased a car with FSD. So they payed thousands on a feature that they will not see working? Or are you saying no one leased a car with FSD capabilities or that the seller advised against leasing an FSD capable car, because FSD will not be ready for another 1-2 years?

I'm just saying Tesla was saying to show a live demo drive by the end of this year!
I would love to see it enabled soon! But I doubt it. Unfortunately!
What Tesla should have done is to be more clear about that! It was clear for me though...
They shouldn't have offered it to be included in a lease! Maybe as a (partly) refundable option, depending on the delivery date...

BTW: Our sales person even told us he would NOT pay for FSD because nobody knows when it is expected to be rolled out to the fleet! We paid for it anyway...

 

[Uncle Paul]

They offered the option for the buyer to include it in his lease if that was his choice. For a lower cost, they could ignore that option.

Cash and finance buyers were also offered the option to include the upcoming capabilities rollout at a reduced price, or to add it in later (at a date of their own choosing) for the full price. Not sure the problem here.

What Tesla did do, to the benefit of many, was to add all the the hardware, necessary to achieve this capability, to all the cars coming down the line at no additional costs. The 40X computer upgrade, enhanced ultrasonic sensor suite, multiple cameras and radar, all well integrated into the design and functionality of the vehicle.

Reminds me of the quote..."No good deed goes unpunished"

All this noise should be going away as the increased capabilities of Tesla Vision are rolled out to the fleet.

 

[stefan.bc]

BTW: Our sales person even told us he would NOT pay for FSD because nobody knows when it is expected to be rolled out to the fleet! We paid for it anyway...

Assuming your is a lease did you pay for FSD because:
- you want to support TESLA (my case, yes)
- you expect the FSD to be release within a year (my case, yes)

Cash and finance buyers were also offered the option to include the upcoming capabilities rollout at a reduced price, or to add it in later (at a date of their own choosing) for the full price. Not sure the problem here.

Not true for inventory maybe? It is possible some might had the option.

 

[chillaban]

Assuming your is a lease did you pay for FSD because:
- you want to support TESLA (my case, yes)
- you expect the FSD to be release within a year (my case, yes)



Not true for inventory maybe? It is possible some might had the option.

Also, don't you only pay for 50% - $7500 residual bump for an option at the start of the lease, or if you buy it afterwards you have to pay for 100%?

When I asked Tesla about the 70->75 unlock in a lease situation they didn't indicate they would recompute the residual….

 

[Helmuth]

Assuming your is a lease did you pay for FSD because:
- you want to support TESLA (my case, yes)
- you expect the FSD to be release within a year (my case, yes)

We own our Model X, no lease!
I expect the rollout will start (gradually) 4th quarter this year! BUT with the driver needed in the drivers seat!
I guess we'll see recognizing signs and traffic lights first...
Following the navigation (off freeways!!!) maybe first half of 2018 (driver still needed)!
FSD hopefully second half 2018, more to the end...
That's what I expect!

 

[chillaban]

We own our Model X, no lease!
I expect the rollout will start (gradually) 4th quarter this year! BUT with the driver needed in the drivers seat!
I guess we'll see recognizing signs and traffic lights first...
Following the navigation (off freeways!!!) maybe first half of 2018 (driver still needed)!
FSD hopefully second half 2018, more to the end...
That's what I expect!

If it makes you feel any better, I am willing to bet once EAP is truly better than EAP and FSD looks like it's working, the after-the-fact prices for both options will be raised to reflect that.

 

[stopcrazypp]

If it makes you feel any better, I am willing to bet once EAP is truly better than EAP and FSD looks like it's working, the after-the-fact prices for both options will be raised to reflect that.

Interesting point. When Tesla raised AP1 prices by $500 (to $3000 from factory and $3500 as after factory change) did they keep the price at $3000 for after factory changes for those that ordered their car before the price increase? That can be a gauge on how they plan to handle that situation.

 

[MP3Mike]

Interesting point. When Tesla raised AP1 prices by $500 (to $3000 from factory and $3500 as after factory change) did they keep the price at $3000 for after factory changes for those that ordered their car before the price increase? That can be a gauge on how they plan to handle that situation.

Nope, the price went up for everyone. People were complaining that one day they could add AP1 for $3,000, then the next day the price went up to $3,500.

 

[u00mem9]

Nope, the price went up for everyone. People were complaining that one day they could add AP1 for $3,000, then the next day the price went up to $3,500.

AP1 was $2500 on my June 2016 order... AP2 performance for 2x cost is a tough pill to swallow so far...

 

[AndrewTX]

If it makes you feel any better, I am willing to bet once EAP is truly better than EAP and FSD looks like it's working, the after-the-fact prices for both options will be raised to reflect that.

I think this is almost 100% guaranteed to happen.

 

[Dan3690]

I have a question. On 17.7.2 does the car implement what it is learning while you are driving it? Or does the car improve only after it get an update from Tesla?

In other words, if I drive the same road many times before I get an update, will the car handle that road better?