FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[gsmith123]

Internal --> YT influencers --> Gradual rollout based on standard criteria (whatever that is - probably a random sample of various geographies / hardware configurations)

One time late last year they even skipped the YT influencers step! I remember because I got one of the 10.69.3.* releases before any Youtube videos were up.

I'd be excited if 11.3.2 start go, um, go narrow later this week, but guessing we see it go to the YT crew maybe Saturday at the earliest?

 

[aronth5]

I don't think they will do that any more.

Internal --> YT influencers --> Gradual rollout based on standard criteria (whatever that is - probably a random sample of various geographies / hardware configurations)

Of course you are right but I can still wish right?

 

[scottf200]

Would five sevens be sufficient?

What does this cryptic sentence mean?

 

[aronth5]

Why is it that so many people now expect to get V11 this weekend when Elon only said V11 would START this weekend?
There will be a lot of people who will state Elon misled them, or worse lied when in fact they just were not paying attention to what he said.

 

[scottf200]

Without having Inferred it is extremely hard to identify the eyes. Tesla has been trying to use the interior camera for a couple of years now but the results are inconsistent. Seems Tesla may have hit a wall and is making very little progress. They may add IR to the new rumored revised versions of the 3/Y but that won't help us legacy owners.

I thought that the 3/Y have had IR for the "selfie" camera for a long time now...

No IR transmitters in the cars that I know of. Where do you believe they are located? They are easy to identify using your phone's video recorder and NEVER seen any from inside a Y/3.

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Summer 2021?

From JWardell Aug 4, 2021at another Tesla forum:
"Tesla added infrared LEDs over the in-cabin camera to assist the autopilot computer in identifying driving attention in dark environments in the 2021 refresh S&X.
Apparently it was added to 3/Y production a few weeks ago as well."

Youtube video on a person checking his with his phone camera:

 

[Joboo7777]

One time late last year they even skipped the YT influencers step! I remember because I got one of the 10.69.3.* releases before any Youtube videos were up.

I'd be excited if 11.3.2 start go, um, go narrow later this week, but guessing we see it go to the YT crew maybe Saturday at the earliest?

This actually may makes some sense given this will be the first major FSDb update offered under a subscription base model. Tesla will want to capitalize on the bump(although may be temporary) in FSD subscriptions. They may not want to have YouTube influencers negatively impact it by giving them a head start on reviews, etc.

 

[qdeathstar]

Why is it that so many people now expect to get V11 this weekend when Elon only said V11 would START this weekend?
There will be a lot of people who will state Elon misled them, or worse lied when in fact they just were not paying attention to what he said.

Yea, same thing with full self driving. Elon never said you’d get full self driving, it’s just called that. Elon never said the roll out would happen this weekend, only that it would start. Like when you start a rocket, or start a race, or start a war. You’re not launching a rocket, holding a race, or waging war. Just starting it.

 

[qdeathstar]

What does this cryptic sentence mean?

77777?

 

[gsmith123]

Why is it that so many people now expect to get V11 this weekend when Elon only said V11 would START this weekend?

Maybe people are either missing the start part and being overly hopeful. Or hoping they'll just be in a small lucky group (like 20% of the beta test group) that forms the "start" of going live. Or assuming a "start" to going wide is releasing it to all existing beta testers (and the wide part would be people waiting on FSD or regions outside north america).

Reading the Elon tea leaves is a unreliable activity

 

[sleepydoc]

I found mine by turning on my phone camera and looking around the rear view mirror.
The 2 red lights appear and are easy to see with your phone.
Assuming you aren't using a Nokia flip phone

Yeah, this is what I get.

 

[Ramphex]

Yeah, this is what I get.
View attachment 918081

No wonder you never understood my complaints about camera nags lol.

 

[Mardak]

hoping they'll just be in a small lucky group (like 20% of the beta test group) that forms the "start" of going live

Recent wide releases of 10.69.3.1, 10.69.25.1 and 10.69.25.2 indeed had 10%/20% rollout phases before expanding more to 40% and 100%. These randomized rollouts were in use well before 10.69, but the FSD Beta population was even smaller then where an initial 10% rollout might "only" go to 10k vehicles. Now with around 400k FSD Beta vehicles, a 10% rollout would be to 40k vehicles -- probably 10x the original "100 Safety Score" group.

There can be a few days between each widening of the rollout, so yes indeed by definition, most won't be part of the 10% or 20% or even 40% rollout, but if the earlier phases are looking good hopefully most of us will have 11.x installed this month.

 

[Ramphex]

Recent wide releases of 10.69.3.1, 10.69.25.1 and 10.69.25.2 indeed had 10%/20% rollout phases before expanding more to 40% and 100%. These randomized rollouts were in use well before 10.69, but the FSD Beta population was even smaller then where an initial 10% rollout might "only" go to 10k vehicles. Now with around 400k FSD Beta vehicles, a 10% rollout would be to 40k vehicles -- probably 10x the original "100 Safety Score" group.

There can be a few days between each widening of the rollout, so yes indeed by definition, most won't be part of the 10% or 20% or even 40% rollout, but if the earlier phases are looking good hopefully most of us will have 11.x installed this month.

I say…. two weeks

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

After watching a couple of DirtyTesla’s v11.X videos, I see no real improvements over 10.69.25.2, city or highway. It still waits till the last minute to merge onto the highway, poor lane choices on city streets, random slowing, intervening with use of accelerator. To me, looks like they changed the visualizations, and that’s about it.

I did skim through a video from AI Driver, looks like lane keeping on twisty roads might be better.

Have to see once I can actually use it to make my own judgement, but my gut feeling says, it’s going to be a bit of a nothing burger.

 

[dachshund]

AI DRIVR new video. Overall a good drive and he highlights a lot of the improved nuances in V11.

AI Driver has several videos on V11. Also, Whole Mars Catalog.

V11 looks very good!

The speed limit thing is still.. a thing. Apparently the speed limit change - to reach the new speed limit faster - is a bit of a pain when the speed limit jumps around. I think it was AI Driver who showed that a truck speed tricked the system to go really slow and the car slowed too quickly. Other than that, when I hear a familiar tester make high praise I believe it.

It looks like a lot of the odd behavior has smoothed out. I'm a bit of an FSD skeptic, but this version looks like a more comfortable experience.

 

[D Good]

Recent wide releases of 10.69.3.1, 10.69.25.1 and 10.69.25.2 indeed had 10%/20% rollout phases before expanding more to 40% and 100%. These randomized rollouts were in use well before 10.69, but the FSD Beta population was even smaller then where an initial 10% rollout might "only" go to 10k vehicles. Now with around 400k FSD Beta vehicles, a 10% rollout would be to 40k vehicles -- probably 10x the original "100 Safety Score" group.

There can be a few days between each widening of the rollout, so yes indeed by definition, most won't be part of the 10% or 20% or even 40% rollout, but if the earlier phases are looking good hopefully most of us will have 11.x installed this month.

I was in the Oct 2021 100 safety score group. I was never in the original 10% rollout. Not once. It clearly has nothing to do with safety score.

 

[Mardak]

It clearly has nothing to do with safety score

That's right. Randomized rollouts don't bias towards high Safety Scores other than the fact that for earlier 10.x rollouts, only those with high enough scores got added to FSD Beta. The exception is for those in the actual early access program before the Safety Score requirement, and they still have the video snapshot button. Now that the FSD Beta population is around 400k, a 10% rollout for 11.x will reach much more people than the original group that got FSD Beta 10.2. However, this also means only roughly 10% / ~400 of that original group from October 2021 will be in the earlier phase of the rollout. So it's good news for those who joined FSD Beta late as they aren't required to wait for others to get 11.x first, and there's a lot of them as the original public beta group was around 4,000 vehicles vs now 400,000.

 

[Dennisis]

AI Driver has several videos on V11. Also, Whole Mars Catalog.

V11 looks very good!

The speed limit thing is still.. a thing. Apparently the speed limit change - to reach the new speed limit faster - is a bit of a pain when the speed limit jumps around. I think it was AI Driver who showed that a truck speed tricked the system to go really slow and the car slowed too quickly. Other than that, when I hear a familiar tester make high praise I believe it.

It looks like a lot of the odd behavior has smoothed out. I'm a bit of an FSD skeptic, but this version looks like a more comfortable experience.

Very impressive! Finally seems to be getting to where it's a "natural" driving experience - can't wait to put it through the paces myself!

 

[Mardak]

Elon never said the roll out would happen this weekend, only that it would start

He does seem to be quite particular about the words he uses, so while unknown unknowns could cause delays to the provided timelines, the specific intent still is there. As you point out, the rollout would only be starting but the intent is to be wider, and as others point out, this weekend deadline could be missed.

For reference, he has referred to earlier rollouts as "limited beta" different from "wide release" maybe to differentiate internal/employee releases from general public:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624693067143069702

Yes, it's confusing that people are probably generally asking about themselves, but it does provide some indication of progress even if only really noticeable internally.

 

[Mardak]

One time late last year they even skipped the YT influencers step!

This was probably rolling out around the holiday update time to the wider FSD Beta audience, and there probably wasn't any FSD Beta driving behavior changes, so it wasn't really necessary to get it deployed first to the actual early access program group vs getting "average" owners to test the changes. This type of update is similar to how updates work for not-FSD-Beta releases.

In particular, I believe part of this rollout you're referring to introduced some tips such as this one to turn on FSD Beta:

So it might have have been counter-productive to try to test this with the pre-Safety-Score group. But for 11.3.2, there could be FSD Beta driving behavior adjustments that Tesla does want the usual rollout progression with telemetry checks before expanding.