FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[WilliamG]

So all of us are lying ? How do you explain a lot of us who can safely use it as ADAS for vast majority of our drives ?

It's junk. Absolute junk. At best, misleading, at worst - a complete con. Maybe you drive on easy roads for FSD? Who can say? All I know is my car CANNOT traverse regular Seattle roads without doing the dumbest sh*t I've ever seen, or coming to complete stops in the middle of roads because it doesn't know the car's width. Just to post this yet again, - I bet your car can't drive down a regular arterial in West Seattle without slamming brakes.

Yesterday it moved into the oncoming lane on Hanford/California Ave SW while going up a hill with a blind crest. If a car had been coming toward me I'd have had a head-on accident, without question. I can repeat this over and over. Why do I continued to test FSD? Because it reminds me what a steaming, heaping pile of feces it currently is, even with the improvements we've seen over the last year or so, and most of the YouTube reviewers are shills for Tesla in the hope they can be invited to the next Elon Lovefest/presentation.

Tesla is never going to reach our goal of FSD this year (forgetting what Tesla's goal now is), and on the hardware we have. Anyone who thinks differently is truly living in a dream world. Will you be able to/can you use FSD as an assist in some scenarios? - absolutely! But it's a joke and an embarrassment to think it's ever going to be able to drive pretty much anywhere without intervention on the current hardware. It can't even park safely anymore with the removal of the ultrasonic sensors on new cars!

 

[jebinc]

It's junk. Absolute junk. At best, misleading, at worst - a complete con. Maybe you drive on easy roads for FSD? Who can say? All I know is my car CANNOT traverse regular Seattle roads without doing the dumbest sh*t I've ever seen, or coming to complete stops in the middle of roads because it doesn't know the car's width. Just to post this yet again, - I bet your car can't drive down a regular arterial in West Seattle without slamming brakes.

Yesterday it moved into the oncoming lane on Hanford/California Ave SW while going up a hill with a blind crest. If a car had been coming toward me I'd have had a head-on accident, without question. I can repeat this over and over. Why do I continued to test FSD? Because it reminds me what a steaming, heaping pile of feces it currently is, even with the improvements we've seen over the last year or so, and most of the YouTube reviewers are shills for Tesla in the hope they can be invited to the next Elon Lovefest/presentation.

Tesla is never going to reach our goal of FSD this year (forgetting what Tesla's goal now is), and on the hardware we have. Anyone who thinks differently is truly living in a dream world. Will you be able to/can you use FSD as an assist in some scenarios? - absolutely! But it's a joke and an embarrassment to think it's ever going to be able to drive pretty much anywhere without intervention on the current hardware. It can't even park safely anymore with the removal of the ultrasonic sensors on new cars!

Things I just don’t understand, like why dogs do this, and FSD(j) being so bad for so long.

 

[EVNow]

Many roundabouts here as well….

Yeh - roundabouts continue to be bad. I usually disengage unless there is nobody behind / in the roundabout.

 

[EVNow]

It's junk. Absolute junk. At best, misleading, at worst - a complete con.

Not interested in arguing with people who use absolute superlatives. Have a good day.

 

[WilliamG]

Not interested in arguing with people who use absolute superlatives. Have a good day.

But my statements have already begun to be proven true already. Tesla has already moved on to new, HD radar units, leaving the rest of us with (potentially) inferior hardware. I get you don't want to hear the truth about our current cars, but it doesn't make it any less true. Heck, when it rains, FSD tells you on the screen it's running degraded. And thank goodness it doesn't rain often in Seattle, eh?

 

[EVNow]

Tesla has already moved on to new, HD radar units, leaving the rest of us with (potentially) inferior hardware. I get you don't want to hear the truth about our current cars, but it doesn't make it any less true.

Hmmm ... not sure what "truth" you have been telling us that we are ignoring.

Duh, they are going to keep improving the hardware.

 

[jebinc]

I wonder if another variable, besides location, is the model of the car driven? @WilliamG and I drive refreshed MSPs (aka, PoS). @EVNow, what are you driving? Something smaller, perhaps?

 

[EVNow]

I wonder if another variable, besides location, is the model of the car driven? @WilliamG and I drive refreshed MSPs (aka, PoS). @EVNow, what are you driving? Something smaller, perhaps?

Old Model 3. That might account for some of the issues - afterall most of the YT videos you see are also 3 & Y. Infact I've rarely seen any S/X videos ...

 

[jebinc]

Old Model 3. That might account for some of the issues - afterall most of the YT videos you see are also 3 & Y. Infact I've rarely seen any S/X videos ...

@Ramphex what PoS do you drive when FSD(j) is active? I’m willing to wager it’s also the “Flagship” MS…

 

[sandman1330]

So you disengage at traffic signals you are going straight ? Traffic lights where SD has to turn ... ?

Some like (you know who) say they don't like the way FSD stops at stop lights, traffic lights etc. So they basically use FSD like AP (before FSD was available). That doesn't sound like what you are doing.

I don't commute to work ... so I avoid the highest traffic periods of the day. But even then, FSD works well in stop-and-go traffic as long as there are urgent ULTs to be done etc. You don't turn at every intersection afterall

Good point as I wasn't clear, no I don't have to disengage at straight through intersections. Sometimes I do, or have to intervene with the pedal to smooth out the deceleration, this is more an issue on rural roads with stop signs.

Effectively I have to disengage at almost every decision point - any time the car needs to make a decision based on the behaviour of other traffic around it. It is either paralyzed with indecision (stops mid turn, swerves / aborts, etc), or it makes the wrong decision. Again, with less traffic around, it has less indecision, and I can wait longer for it to make its decision without impeding traffic flow.

I think the key difference that may be leading to your better experience with FSD is that you don't commute. As I've said, FSD works pretty well outside of peak traffic periods. But since you don't drive often in heavy rush hour traffic, you don't feel the same pressures or guilt over impeding fellow commuters.

 

[jebinc]

Good point as I wasn't clear, no I don't have to disengage at straight through intersections. Sometimes I do, or have to intervene with the pedal to smooth out the deceleration, this is more an issue on rural roads with stop signs.

Effectively I have to disengage at almost every decision point - any time the car needs to make a decision based on the behaviour of other traffic around it. It is either paralyzed with indecision (stops mid turn, swerves / aborts, etc), or it makes the wrong decision. Again, with less traffic around, it has less indecision, and I can wait longer for it to make its decision without impeding traffic flow.

I think the key difference that may be leading to your better experience with FSD is that you don't commute. As I've said, FSD works pretty well outside of peak traffic periods. But since you don't drive often in heavy rush hour traffic, you don't feel the same pressures or guilt over impeding fellow commuters.

What do you drive?

 

[sandman1330]

@Ramphex what PoS do you drive when FSD(j) is active? I’m willing to wager it’s also the “Flagship” MS…

I also drive the refreshed S.... Perhaps you are noticing a trend?

I think the yoke helps on the highway with nags (more comfortable to maintain torque), but less so in city...

 

[jebinc]

I also drive the refreshed S.... Perhaps you are noticing a trend?

I think the yoke helps on the highway with nags (more comfortable to maintain torque), but less so in city...

Definitely “seems” like refreshed MS owners are more aligned on FSD(j) being more junk than say Model 3/Y users. The later also enjoy better visualizations than the…

… we get on the tiny “behind the wheel” display. Hat’s off to the Charlatan to sucking us into thinking we purchased the “Flagship” of the brand…

@Ramphex - We are awaiting your datapoint. Do you also have a refreshed MS PoS of some sort?!

@WilliamG

 

[Ramphex]

@Ramphex what PoS do you drive when FSD(j) is active? I’m willing to wager it’s also the “Flagship” MS…

I truly feel that different model owners have a different experience. I have the junk installed on my 2021 Refresh Model S.

Damn this flight, I’m missing all of the bickering on here

 

[EVNow]

Effectively I have to disengage at almost every decision point - any time the car needs to make a decision based on the behaviour of other traffic around it. It is either paralyzed with indecision (stops mid turn, swerves / aborts, etc), or it makes the wrong decision. Again, with less traffic around, it has less indecision, and I can wait longer for it to make its decision without impeding traffic flow.

I think the key difference that may be leading to your better experience with FSD is that you don't commute. As I've said, FSD works pretty well outside of peak traffic periods. But since you don't drive often in heavy rush hour traffic, you don't feel the same pressures or guilt over impeding fellow commuters.

It could also be the difference in the way traffic controls are setup.

In the areas I drive - we have traffic lights at almost every busy intersection. We don't have many ULTs or stop signs on heavily used roads - as it should be.

But in general the areas I drive around usually do have heavy traffic - even non-peak. But I've no issues with how FSD handles traffic lights. Even multi-lane turns that used to be bad have become quite good now - and I don't intervene. Ofcourse at every intersection I always have both my hands on the wheel.

BTW, I've to reiterate that I'm very risk averse when it comes to driving in general. It took me a long time even to start using AP and I didn't use NOA on freeways to change from one freeway to another. So, my risk tolerance is actually quite low.

 

[WilliamG]

Hmmm ... not sure what "truth" you have been telling us that we are ignoring.

Duh, they are going to keep improving the hardware.

But what does that mean for those of us now who spent up to $15k? My point is that Tesla is never going to deliver what customers would describe as a workable product to those of us in the here and now. If I had to share a road with most people using FSD right now, I'd rather stay home.

 

[WilliamG]

It could also be the difference in the way traffic controls are setup.

In the areas I drive - we have traffic lights at almost every busy intersection. We don't have many ULTs or stop signs on heavily used roads - as it should be.

But in general the areas I drive around usually do have heavy traffic - even non-peak. But I've no issues with how FSD handles traffic lights. Even multi-lane turns that used to be bad have become quite good now - and I don't intervene. Ofcourse at every intersection I always have both my hands on the wheel.

BTW, I've to reiterate that I'm very risk averse when it comes to driving in general. It took me a long time even to start using AP and I didn't use NOA on freeways to change from one freeway to another. So, my risk tolerance is actually quite low.

I would be very interested in doing a back-to-back comparison with your car versus my car, and maybe have @jebinc join, too. Then we can have three cars, run an identical route, and see how each car behaves.

 

[Dewg]

Many of you are in the Seattle area. I want you all to get together some weekend soon (you have 2 months to make this happen) and drive around with each other's cars on various pre-agreed upon routes.

Give us the results here when finished.

I have spoken.

 

[jebinc]

I truly feel that different model owners have a different experience. I have the junk installed on my 2021 Refresh Model S.

Damn this flight, I’m missing all of the bickering on here

Interesting….

Seems like hardware/model, and use location, are more factors than, “learning curve,” or “tolerance”….

 

[jebinc]

I would be very interested in doing a back-to-back comparison with your car versus my car, and maybe have @jebinc join, too. Then we can have three cars, run an identical route, and see how each car behaves.

I’ll be the one in a lawn chair, watching, and eating popcorn