FSD Beta v11.x

PR0FESSOR · Jun 11, 2023

// Begin Professor Mode

For what it’s worth, empirically speaking, you undermine your argument when you speak incorrectly in terms of the absolutes “always” and “never”. You may want to consider using these absolutes less frequently. Your observations may indeed be correct, but ”always” and “never” cannot be known by you, or anyone else, on any subject, because these terms indicate omniscience; a trait I doubt you, or anyone else who posts on this forum, possess when speaking about things you do not control.

For example, you could say “I will never have a ménage a trois“, or “I always wash my hands after playing in the cat’s litter box”, because you control these things, but you cannot say that FSD will always be junk (although it may be) or that FSD will never be usable on busy city streets. You cannot possibly know either of these things.

I make this statement every quantitative analysis and regression modeling class I teach. The issue of speaking in absolutes is, in my experience, a common problem.

// End Professor Mode

Carry on @WilliamG, I truly enjoy reading your posts.

Joe

WilliamG said:
I wouldn't lose that bet re: phantom braking. Tesla has the benefit of a moving target when it comes to software updates, where phantom braking has improved/declined etc etc. Other manufacturers have their software set in stone. Tesla somehow hasn't been investigated or punished for just about anything it seems (window regulators is one they did get dinged on). 200mph requiring just wheels and tires, anyone? Just another lie.

I don't see how you can argue that Tesla only promised L2 and that's what they delivered when it comes to FSD. AutoPilot is Level 2, and that is an acceptable L2 release for the most part. I mean, they could have delivered FSD years ago then, surely! If Tesla doesn't care whether it safely delivers FSD L2, why not just call it done already? Also I'm pretty sure it was promised that the car would drive in city streets back in 2019, and it wasn't called Level 2 at the time, that I recall, but I'll defer on that. At the end of the day, it sounds like you're being a bit of an apologist, which is fine. But FSD is and always will be junk on these cars. Usable on occasion, but never usable on busy city streets, and I won't even get into edge cases, which are common, and which the car fails at. They're not even edge cases anymore they're so common, and part of the reason real FSD isn't coming anytime soon.

Coming later this year:

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.

Automatic driving on city streets.

jebinc · Jun 11, 2023

WilliamG said:
Classic. First, there was no challenge. There was a request. You couldn't come/didn't want to come. Fine. You found someone else, - yep, no argument there. I did not "back off." I waited for the next update that was imminent, it did not fix the issue that was then (and quite coincidently right after my complaints) widely publicized by a Model 3 driver and everyone's favorite left turner, Chuck Cook. The update came out, didn't fix the issue, and I immediately posted the location for someone to test. But by all means, follow your own narrative if it makes you feel better?

Beck and call? You're hilarious, mate.

I'm moving on from this particular discourse which does nothing but distract from the original point which is: FSD is rubbish.

No, it’s “Junk,” per @Ramphex!

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

PR0FESSOR said:
// Begin Professor Mode

For what it’s worth, empirically speaking, you undermine your argument when you speak incorrectly in terms of the absolutes “always” and “never”. You may want to consider using these absolutes less frequently. Your observations may indeed be correct, but ”always” and “never” cannot be known by you, or anyone else, on any subject, because these terms indicate omniscience; a trait I doubt you, or anyone else who posts on this forum, possess when speaking about things you do not control.

For example, you could say “I will never have a ménage a trois“, or “I always wash my hands after playing in the cat’s litter box”, because you control these things, but you cannot say that FSD will always be junk (although it may be) or that FSD will never be usable on busy city streets. You cannot possibly know either of these things.

I make this statement every quantitative analysis and regression modeling class I teach. The issue of speaking in absolutes is, in my experience, a common problem.

// End Professor Mode

Carry on @WilliamG, I truly enjoy reading your posts.

Joe

That is one way to break down the semantics of the words.

I’ll agree that based on the past experience, and the progress to date, we will NEVER get a stable FULL SELF DRIVING in our CURRENT vehicles/hardware lifetimes. Maybe in HW 4.20 in 2030 SupaDupaRefresharoni4.20 Model S, but not today or anytime soon.

WilliamG · Jun 11, 2023

PR0FESSOR said:
// Begin Professor Mode

For what it’s worth, empirically speaking, you undermine your argument when you speak incorrectly in terms of the absolutes “always” and “never”. You may want to consider using these absolutes less frequently. Your observations may indeed be correct, but ”always” and “never” cannot be known by you, or anyone else, on any subject, because these terms indicate omniscience; a trait I doubt you, or anyone else who posts on this forum, possess when speaking about things you do not control.

For example, you could say “I will never have a ménage a trois“, or “I always wash my hands after playing in the cat’s litter box”, because you control these things, but you cannot say that FSD will always be junk (although it may be) or that FSD will never be usable on busy city streets. You cannot possibly know either of these things.

I make this statement every quantitative analysis and regression modeling class I teach. The issue of speaking in absolutes is, in my experience, a common problem.

// End Professor Mode

Carry on @WilliamG, I truly enjoy reading your posts.

Joe

// Begin English nut/Journalist Mode

Hey Joe, - cheers for that! You raise an interesting point, and not one I hadn't thought carefully about. Here's some further discussion, since it's (arguably) more interesting than the back and forth on FSD.

When it comes to humans and absolutes, - in your examples "I will never have a ménage a trois," or, “I always wash my hands after playing in the cat’s litter box”, you actually can't state these with absence of absolute doubt. You may, for example, forget to wash your hands after becoming distracted by... say... the ongoing ménage a trois taking place in the next room. Speaking of which, your sexual preferences/desires can certainly change over time. The betrothed make simple promises to each other at the altar, and we all know how a large number of those promises end up, despite good intentions at the beginning. Either way, in my case I can't imagine either of those examples being anything but true.., - but I could never categorically say that both are absolutely unwavering truths for all people who state them. (Trip down memory lane: reminds me of when I was a little 'un, my father teaching me that you can assure someone you'll do something in the future, but you can only really make promises about the past, as no future promise is an absolute guarantee, - life can get in the way).

When it comes to FSD, there are some knowns that can't change on the current hardware, - which ensures the absolute. I'll keep it simple for this example: The cameras do get covered in rain or snow, removing visibility, especially in Seattle. For a good part of the year my car has limited visibility in the Seattle winters where FSD is degraded, and the car points this out to me when driving. It would be the equivalent of say (oh boy, non-faulty analogies are tricky things), a runner who can always sprint the full mile in under four minutes.., as long as he doesn't get a cramp in his left leg due to lifelong muscle spasm issue, - which can happen at seemingly random times (that's Seattle weather!). Therefore, with absolute certainty, we can say this man cannot guarantee to run a mile in under four minutes, in the same way that FSD cannot drive simple roads when it starts to rain.

Anyway, thanks for bringing up the point. While it's easy to be a little sensationalist on these boards, I do stand by the FSD never working to at least my standards (not set in stone, but the majority of the time needing no intervention or even thought of one) on the current hardware.

// End English nut/Journalist Mode

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

Let’s entertain some of the “anecdotal” things mentioned earlier. How about Autopark (Beta)? How long has that been a thing?

While getting my industrial strength hemorrhoid cream today, I recorded a video of Autopark in action. Let’s watch how well it performs on a “flagship refresh Model S”

iCloud Photos - Apple iCloud

View, organize, and share photos and videos with iCloud Photos on the web. Changes will sync across your devices with iCloud.

share.icloud.com

A good ol 60 seconds to back into a spot. Dang it’s good! Revolutionary. Puts into perspective what to expect from the rest of the beta Junk.

jebinc · Jun 11, 2023

WilliamG said:
// Begin English nut/Journalist Mode

Hey Joe, - cheers for that! You raise an interesting point, and not one I hadn't thought carefully about. Here's some further discussion, since it's (arguably) more interesting than the back and forth on FSD.

When it comes to humans and absolutes, - in your examples "I will never have a ménage a trois," or, “I always wash my hands after playing in the cat’s litter box”, you actually can't state these with absence of absolute doubt. You may, for example, forget to wash your hands after becoming distracted by... say... the ongoing ménage a trois taking place in the next room. Speaking of which, your sexual preferences/desires can certainly change over time. The betrothed make simple promises to each other at the altar, and we all know how a large number of those promises end up, despite good intentions at the beginning. Either way, in my case I can't imagine either of those examples being anything but true.., - but I could never categorically say that both are absolutely unwavering truths for all people who state them. (Trip down memory lane: reminds me of when I was a little 'un, my father teaching me that you can assure someone you'll do something in the future, but you can only really make promises about the past, as no future promise is an absolute guarantee, - life can get in the way).

When it comes to FSD, there are some knowns that can't change on the current hardware, - which ensures the absolute. I'll keep it simple for this example: The cameras do get covered in rain or snow, removing visibility, especially in Seattle. For a good part of the year my car has limited visibility in the Seattle winters where FSD is degraded, and the car points this out to me when driving. It would be the equivalent of say (oh boy, non-faulty analogies are tricky things), a runner who can always sprint the full mile in under four minutes.., as long as he doesn't get a cramp in his left leg due to lifelong muscle spasm issue, - which can happen at seemingly random times (that's Seattle weather!). Therefore, with absolute certainty, we can say this man cannot guarantee to run a mile in under four minutes, in the same way that FSD cannot drive simple roads when it starts to rain.

Anyway, thanks for bringing up the point. While it's easy to be a little sensationalist on these boards, I do stand by the FSD never working to at least my standards (not set in stone, but the majority of the time needing no intervention or even thought of one) on the current hardware.

// End English nut/Journalist Mode

Did someone say there’s a “ménage a trois” in the next room?!

More seriously, I do agree with the sentiment.

Yelobird · Jun 11, 2023

Ramphex said:
Let’s entertain some of the “anecdotal” things mentioned earlier. How about Autopark (Beta)? How long has that been a thing?

While getting my industrial strength hemorrhoid cream today, I recorded a video of Autopark in action. Let’s watch how well it performs on a “flagship refresh Model S”

iCloud Photos - Apple iCloud

View, organize, and share photos and videos with iCloud Photos on the web. Changes will sync across your devices with iCloud.

share.icloud.com

A good ol 60 seconds to back into a spot. Dang it’s good! Revolutionary. Puts into perspective what to expect from the rest of the beta Junk.

If it was called auto park in under 60 seconds I would agree. As it Does the process I don’t see the argument. Maybe not to Your expert values but it does it.

Knightshade · Jun 11, 2023

jebinc said:
I’m fairly certain the “L2” talk only emerged more recently than 2019. And “city streets” was not stated as L2 in 2019. Prove me wrong.

You are wrong.

Circled in red is where they make it clear this is an L2 system you are buying.

They missed the 'later this year' promise on city streets of course, but fsdb delivers that today.

Tesla has not promised you anything higher than L2 since that change ~March 2019.

Prior to that they promised a system that is (at least) L4-- arguably L5. That March 2019 change altered the entire product description to be FAR more specific and conservative about future capabilities.

Almost certainly so as to limit legal liability if they couldn't ever deliver L4 or better.

WilliamG said:
I wouldn't lose that bet re: phantom braking. Tesla has the benefit of a moving target when it comes to software updates, where phantom braking has improved/declined etc etc. Other manufacturers have their software set in stone.

This is, of course, complete nonsense.

Otherwise how would any of the much-worse-braking-problem non-Teslas have ever been fixed?

The difference is you had to physically bring them in for software updates.

So your argument then turns into--- Tesla has WORSE problems, and COULD fix them easier... therefore they haven't been forced to fix them... when others with problems you claim are NOT AS BAD have been forced to, even though fixing them is harder.

Which is nonsensical. But that's the story you just told us.

No, in reality others had worse, more objectively dangerous, braking issues- and NHTSA forced them to fix them. All investigations of Tesla have NOT produced similar results.

Therefore your claim it's worse for Tesla than anyone else is factually wrong

WilliamG said:
I don't see how you can argue that Tesla only promised L2 and that's what they delivered when it comes to FSD

Because that's literally what they promised you during the sale of the product

See pic attached near top.

WilliamG said:
AutoPilot is Level 2, and that is an acceptable L2 release for the most part. I mean, they could have delivered FSD years ago then, surely!

Again this is nonsensical.

You can have vastly different sets of capabilities that all are level 2.

WilliamG said:
Also I'm pretty sure it was promised that the car would drive in city streets back in 2019, and it wasn't called Level 2 at the time, that I recall, but I'll defer on that

Except, again, it was. Because it made clear it would not be autonomous.

You seem to have bought FSD, multiple times, without bothering to read what you were actually buying.

WilliamG said:
. At the end of the day, it sounds like you're being a bit of an apologist

Maybe check your hearing?

I'm sticking to actual facts instead of false memories and hyperbole. You might want to try that too.

WilliamG said:
FSD is and always will be junk on these cars.

Case in point.

WilliamG said:
Coming later this year:[/B]

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.

Automatic driving on city streets.

Yes. At level 2.

They were late, but began delivering this via FSDb in 2021 to some owners, and to "everyone" who asks for it now.

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

Yelobird said:
If it was called auto park in under 60 seconds I would agree. As it Does the process I don’t see the argument. Maybe not to Your expert values but it does it.

Leave it to you to be sitting in a pool of *sugar* and still complimenting how it’s a pool.

Yelobird · Jun 11, 2023

Ramphex said:
Leave it to you to be sitting in a pool of *sugar* and still complimenting how it’s a pool.

Better than Hunting for something to bark at to help you feel like you have a point.

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

Yelobird said:
Better than Hunting for something to bark at to help you feel like you have a point.

I don’t need to hunt, the Junk presents its junkiness daily. This reminds me of you.

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

Ramphex said:
Let’s entertain some of the “anecdotal” things mentioned earlier. How about Autopark (Beta)? How long has that been a thing?

While getting my industrial strength hemorrhoid cream today, I recorded a video of Autopark in action. Let’s watch how well it performs on a “flagship refresh Model S”

iCloud Photos - Apple iCloud

View, organize, and share photos and videos with iCloud Photos on the web. Changes will sync across your devices with iCloud.

share.icloud.com

A good ol 60 seconds to back into a spot. Dang it’s good! Revolutionary. Puts into perspective what to expect from the rest of the beta Junk.

Here’s a couple more vids. Turn Signals (Beta)

iCloud Photos - Apple iCloud

View, organize, and share photos and videos with iCloud Photos on the web. Changes will sync across your devices with iCloud.

share.icloud.com

iCloud Photos - Apple iCloud

View, organize, and share photos and videos with iCloud Photos on the web. Changes will sync across your devices with iCloud.

share.icloud.com

jebinc · Jun 11, 2023

Yelobird said:
If it was called auto park in under 60 seconds I would agree. As it Does the process I don’t see the argument. Maybe not to Your expert values but it does it.

But no, “100 times better than a human,” as Elon states FSD is/will be “soon”!

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

jebinc said:
But no, “100 times better than a human,” as Elon states FSD is/will be “soon”!

In two weeks

Knightshade · Jun 11, 2023

Oh, speaking of Elon delivering late- someone just asked when they're doing the cross-country FSD drive they promised in 2017

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667762909261316097

Jeff Hudson · Jun 11, 2023

Supcom said:
It is perfectly fine to use FSDb without a destination set.

Thanks for the confirmation. Another question I've been meaning to get confirmation for is it also your experience that FSD Beta won't obey a manual signal to take a turn when it isn't following a pre-programmed navigation path? This has been my experience.

Ramphex · Jun 11, 2023

Zero takeover, to me, doesn’t indicate a good experience. Useless statistic. I can paint your living room wall with 0 masking tape

EVNow · Jun 11, 2023

Ticobird said:
I've been meaning to ask for a while now and my apologizes to this forum if this has already been asked and answered.

Is it okay in your opinion to activate an FSD Beta drive without using navigation? I do this frequently and I am not bothered with having to exit FSD Beta either because of a safety intervention or I just want to take a different route. Any thoughts about this matter are welcome.

On city it is not practical without a destination since it will keep taking the first right turn.

On freeways .. IIRC, you can.

aronth5 · Jun 11, 2023

L4/L5 probably not with current hardware but I do believe L3 on controlled access highways is doable. That would be very helpful to me and I believe most owners. Hoping Mercedes can significantly improve their current crappy L3 system to push Tesla to at least provide a partial FSD solution.

jebinc · Jun 11, 2023

Ramphex said:
Zero takeover, to me, doesn’t indicate a good experience. Useless statistic. I can paint your living room wall with 0 masking tape

Yep, it’s painted - “Feature complete”

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