FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What are you referring to?

Just vision in general.

 

[PianoAl]

No I don’t think so because there is not a wall behind me. But I am not really paying any attention - I am trying not to hit the wall on the right or the drainage pipe!

I think mine gives that loud tone and the STOP graphic even with things on the side.

I should do this with the cone on the side:

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think mine gives that loud tone and the STOP graphic even with things on the side.

I should do this with the cone on the side:

There’s of lot of dinging and continuous tones but I am not paying attention - as I said, not using the USS for this, so kind of off topic at this point I guess.

Having the USS overlaid on the cameras would be nice I guess. Never going to happen now though!

 

[Acisplat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638708569498427393

At this point I'm going to assume "2 weeks" from now again and be pleasantly surprised if it comes earlier.

 

[willow_hiller]

Just vision in general.

Maybe you should see an optometrist.

 

[Ramphex]

While still waiting for my 11.3.x update on 3 separate cars I was just thinking that it's surprising that Tesla hasn't increased the cost again for either FSD purchase price or the subscription. There was almost a cadence to it in 2021-2022. I guess they figure the take rate would plummet so why bother.

You can only crank the price up so high before you realize you either peaked on who will buy this garbage or pretty much rely on stock holder apologists to keep buying FSD with their every car.

 

[kabin]

Also it appears another ~100 owners on Fi just got the v11 pushed to them. Me not included.

Something is awry.

 

[kabin]

You can only crank the price up so high before you realize you either peaked on who will buy this garbage or pretty much rely on stock holder apologists to keep buying FSD with their every car.

Yes, any price changes will likely be lower. 5 digits is beyond ridiculous.

 

[navels]

Okay I now have a script running periodically that will slack me if the total number for 11.3.2 (pending and installed) increases.

Here is the part that computes the total if anyone else wants to use it:

curl -s 'https://www.teslafi.com/firmware.php' |
  grep -m 1 renderLatestUpdatesChart |
  sed 's/.*(\([^)]*\)).*/\1/' |
  jq -r '.latest_updates[] | select(.version == "2022.45.11") | del(.version)[]' |
  jq -s 'add'

 

[gsmith123]

Something is awry.

It's kind of feeling that way, although 2022.44.30.10 followed a slow timeline too and eventually was released wide. If 11.3.2 is similar it'll be another 2-3 days before we see another push. Here's the 2022.44.30.10 release timeline. It took about 6 days until the big push and 4 days after they hit the ~10% milestone:

Obviously Tesla can and does change their rollout schedule and criteria as they continuously iterate. So... anything might happen, but I'd think since 2022.44.30.10 was the most recent completed release that it's our best reference for Tesla's preferred release schedule. Since 11.3.x is a larger change, maybe a slightly more conservative rollout? On the other hand it's been through much more internal testing.

If we don't see 11.3.2 go any wider in 5-6 days, then I'll panic

 

[Justmurr]

Big road trip on the 31st. Today, I’ve begun to panic.

 

[Yelobird]

Big road trip on the 31st. Today, I’ve begun to panic.

Why? Likely 90% of a long road trip uses AP which you have and FSD will still work. Will not making a left at a light at end of trip give you anxiety?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There’s of lot of dinging and continuous tones but I am not paying attention - as I said, not using the USS for this, so kind of off topic at this point I guess.

Having the USS overlaid on the cameras would be nice I guess. Never going to happen now though!

An impossible task!

 

[uthatcher]

This has been the version releasing “next week” since last last August!

“Just one more thing…”.

Major case of development-testing-release constipation. I’d say, blockage level severity! But, no surprise at all. Zero. @uthatcher


View attachment 920063

I can feel it now, it’s coming. Won’t be long now….

 

[uthatcher]

Totally expecting to hear this, this week. I treat Elon kind of like a dead beat dad. You know the kind that says they'll totally be at your sports game or show up for the science fair or whatever but never does and always has an excuse. It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla), but eventually the lies grow so big that you finally work up the courage to confront him and instead of him taking responsibility to do better he cripples hw3 by removing radar and uss and blames you for his failed marriage because you didn't love him enough and how dare you hold him responsible for his past actions and words after everything he's done for you and hw4 is around the corner and it's totally going to solve his marriage problems. Then he excuses himself to spend time with his mistress (tweeting) and forgets about hw4.

Damn. You‘ve lived some sh*t.

But what could ever, ever remind you of a deadbeat dad about Elon? He spreads his seed with love and grace and cash, oh lots of cash, to whomever will, ahem, accept it.

 

[dramsey]

While still waiting for my 11.3.x update on 3 separate cars I was just thinking that it's surprising that Tesla hasn't increased the cost again for either FSD purchase price or the subscription. There was almost a cadence to it in 2021-2022. I guess they figure the take rate would plummet so why bother.

The take rate _has_ plummeted. They don’t seem to care.

 

[TK211X]

Waiting for the tips to touch.

 

[Ramphex]

Would FSD get solved if EM left Tesla right now ? How ?

People don't seem to understand it is a tough AI problem. They think there is some magic wand Elon can wave to solve it - if only he wasn't busy tweeting.

ps : I'm one of the fircest critics of EM on the Twitter saga (checkout Twitter thread). But, that has nothing to do with FSD.

I think solving the FSD isn’t necessarily the major issue at hand. It’s constantly lying about it and giving false hope.

Not saying he needs to leave, but for the love of god put someone else in charge of disseminating correct information about what’s going on at Tesla.

 

[Ramphex]

What’s the deal with this @STUtoday guy? Is he some sort of dislike bot? He trolls these threads and dislikes posts all the time, never see him like any posts, nor ever see him actually post anything.

Mojo is that you?!? Are you Elon’s dislike bot?

 

[gsmith123]

Not saying he needs to leave, but for the love of god put someone else in charge of disseminating correct information about what’s going on at Tesla.

The problem is Elon talking about what will happen at Tesla, rather than what is happening.

He shares lofty, optimistic, aspirational goals they are working towards and people interpret them as commitments. I don’t think he’s lying per se but allows these statements to be broadly misinterpreted and that’s problematic.