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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Changing lanes constantly unnecessarily pissing people off around me: critical disengagement. No one wants to ride in a car that makes people angry at all. My “look like an idiot” tolerance is quite low.

I'll go a step further since I live in still mostly polite Canada. Putting a signal on and then turning off without actually changing lanes, over and over again triggers my "looks like an idiot" tolerance.

I've only taken FSDb(for bollocks) out for one try. I'm not yet on 11.4.x because I refuse to download it based on comments on forums. My husband has been using 11.3 a lot and as a passenger, there were many times I was unaware the car was driving, not him, so I was finally ready to try it out on a route that I had ridden with it multiple times before so I knew some of the quirks (consistent, rapid deacceleration at one point on the highway despite no speed change, and the car displaying the correct speed limit is one of them.) So I have 100 miles of experience over two trips, out and back. Mostly highway. Set to Chill and minimal lane changes. Didn't engage until I was on the highway and in the correct lane (the 5 minutes to the highway is a strange route and passes 3 construction sites with seemingly daily changes in traffic patterns and is harrowing enough without expecting FSD to handle it and then the right lane after I join the freeway immediately becomes the exit lane for the next exit 500M down the road.)

What I would consider critical disengagement were:

* the signal and physical moving toward the exit ramp that was 14 miles before the next exit shown on the NAV. And was closed for construction. It then tried to exit on 2 of the following 8 exits before the actual exit. The car was also traveling at the freeway speed limit there because it doesn't respond to construction speed limits.

* moved into the left turn lane (triggered by my lane change request) and then moving back into the straight through lane because, I assume, traffic was stopped in front of me (due to a left turn signal being red so they were all waiting to make the same turn as I needed.)

* same intersection, after I reengaged the FSD during the wait at the red light, during the left turn it decided to cut far too close to the first car waiting at the red light for the cross-road. Whether that car was over the stop line or not (I don't recall), I just disengaged because my mental math showed I'd be close to or actually sideswiping myself on his bumpter. Yes, probably the car would have over-corrected and widen the turn at the last moment, but there was no reason for its path to be diagonal from the end of the median to my new direction's lane, instead of pulling out a few car lengths and then making the turn. It was a protected left turn so there was no oncoming traffic to avoid, no timing issues to worry about and the car was just starting up from a full stop so it wasn't cutting the turn tight due to speed.

* tried to move one lane to the left within 100m of the start of my exit ramp on the way home. We believe this is a mapping issue leftover from construction almost 2 years ago when that lane was an exit lane for the previous exit, AND, the map reads 80kph (the revised construction zone speed from 2 years ago) instead of 100kph. The car doesn't react to the incorrect speed but does everything it can to get the car out of the lane it thinks doesn't exist (this is after where the old lane would have been forced to exit so at this point, I can only assume it thinks it is in an on-ramp lane.)

Now, my husband, on the same route, disengages when he gets to the previous exit (one has to disengage at the bottom of our exit ramp anyway as there is a 4 lane change in 100M in order to continue on our route and my friendly neighbourhood FSD Youtuber hasn't made that lane change successfully yet.) I wanted to see if the urge to inappropriately change lanes right before the exit was still a problem. It is. As well, he disengages as we enter every town along the way because FSD will not start slowing until it passes the new speed limit. I chose to dial down the speed myself in each of those cases and then nudge the car to accelerate faster when the speed limit rises again. So not a disengagement, critical or otherwise, but also even if nothing else had happened, my drive would not have been intervention-free.

Those were the egregious errors, but in total there were 12 disengagements, so the rest I'd count as non-critical, just in the "don't want to be seen as an incompetent or drunk driver" category. I suppose if I was more experienced with FSDb I'd trust how the car will make turns so not have to disengage the moment I felt it driving in such as way that I wasn't confident it was even going to attempt the turn. Those are more the 'student driver' mistakes. As I have repeatedly said, I taught 3 kids how to drive and have the grey hair to prove it. I will not pay Elon for the privilege of teaching his baby to drive.

Unfortunately, the car was picked for the driver assist features and it commonly disappoints me, either panicking when there is no need to panic, not looking far enough down the road to slow or lane change for problems ahead, or unable to follow speed limits (i.e. won't maintain the speed limit in a highway construction zone with narrowed lanes.) Not to mention, loss of TACC or AP in rain or fog or sunlight or some other magical reason. On our last long drive, for the whole trip (including an overnight stay) my husband lost TACC (which he wanted to use because he was tired of monitoring for FSDb effing up unexpectedly). It simply said it was unavailable but did allow him to reengage FSDb so he had no choice but to use FSDb when he was tired of maintaining the car's speed manually on the highway. (We suspect in that case, one door may not have been completely shut - while stopped we opened and closed all but one door but the day after returning home TACC was back, and I had opened and closed the remaining door when unloading the car at home.)
 
Define “critical disengagement.” Is it one where the car would crash? It must be a lower threshold than that? For me personally, I consider a critical disengagement to be anything that significantly affects other drivers around me. Changing lanes constantly unnecessarily pissing people off around me: critical disengagement. No one wants to ride in a car that makes people angry at all. My “look like an idiot” tolerance is quite low.
I'm with you. I can't tolerate it either. My wife refuses to use FSDj and I can't blame her.

I mostly feel comfortable letting it run when there's no nearby traffic but even then side traffic enters the flow two lanes over and no where near the ego's path and FSDj needs to give the firm needless brake. It will be nice if we can ever progress beyond the (Fred) Flintstone Self Driving days.
 
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I'll go a step further since I live in still mostly polite Canada. Putting a signal on and then turning off without actually changing lanes, over and over again triggers my "looks like an idiot" tolerance.
Yes and even something as simple as initiating the turn signal before applying brakes and slowing 10 or more mph would be a nice gesture to fellow drivers. Worst yet are those last minute lane changes in front of a car and then slamming on brakes before initiating the turn signal. It's not safe or courteous.
 
I agree with those who have a problem with the turn signal coming on for no reason, however, there is nothing I can do about that other than turn it off as soon as I can. To the problem with not using the turn signal soon enough, I engage the signal when I see the car start to slow for a turn (when I am driving and with FSD engaged). I get a warning that the car cannot change lanes or something to that effect but there is no problem with doing this. I, like many, do not want the person behind me to be surprised by my slowing for a turn, as much for self-protection as to be courteous, so I put the turn signal on as soon as I or the car starts to slow. What has surprised me is that Tennessee state driving law does not require the signal until 50 feet before the turn, which the car (using FSD) in many cases seem to comply with.
 
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Because Elon is extremely optimistic about everything. There is exactly 0% chance that FSD will be safer than a human by the end of the year. I think every single person in this thread knows that, too.
I’m curious why anyone pays attention to any of Elon’s predictions at this point? His accuracy is something below 0% (I honestly can’t remember the last time something he said was accurate.) The only thing his tweets are useful for are to get a general idea of the direction and goals for Tesla/FSD.

Everyone here knows that yet people still seem to actually take what he says as a promise. If you’re doing so at this point you’re either trolling of too dimwitted to listen to. Would you honestly still try to kick the football Lucy’s holding? Fool me once, fool me twice…fool me 500 times?
 
I just read about a billion posts to come across this actually useful data.
Thanks Tesla for keeping us both *ahead and behind of 11.3.6. Damn, why not move up up to some 23.1.x love?

* Although the more I drive 11.4.2 the more it SEEMS to be a regression from 11.3.6. Maybe Elon meant 11.4 could have been version 10.x instead of version 12.x.
 
The more I use 11.4.2 the less impressed I am. several regressions and nothing significantly improved that I can tell. Enjoy being on 11.3.6
It definitely handles passing large trucks on highway lanes better that 11.3.6. It still moves over but it's a much more relaxed transition, instead of the semi-panic emergency previously. It no longer scares the crap out of other drivers with its constant zigzagging in the lane as it fights the need to be on one side of the lane when cornering and the other side of the lane to avoid the semi-trailer.
It has also most definitely reverted back to the "don't you dare use this with me in the car" for the rest of my family. Most disappointing, 11.4.3 can't come soon enough but I don't think a point release can fix all the things wrong with 11.4.2
I've just done a camera calibration, lets see if that helps
 
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stop acting like you're the only person on the road and inconveniencing other drivers doesn't matter.
Apparently, you live in a different "earth". Most people drive exactly like this. No I'm not talking about FSD - I'm talking about human drivers.

The inconvenience caused by FSD is highly exaggerated. Taking one more second at a stop sign is not a sign of barbarity.
 
11.4.2 has coding to limit the car’s speed based on the road. I’ve come to the conclusion it’s worthless. Below is a picture of one of the trunk roads in our neighborhood. It’s about 4.5 cars wide - wide enough for 2 cars to comfortably pass each other even with a cars parked on both sides of the road and actually has a yellow stripe in some areas. THere’s a sidewalk on both sides and a bike path in some areas. The posted limit is 30, people usually drive between 30-35 MPH. 11.4.2 now limits the speed to 30 MPH.

The second picture is a road by our cabin. It is barely wide enough for 2 cars to pass without driving off the pavement. Most people drive about 20 mph. FSD thinks the speed limit is 55 and tries to drive that fast.

I rest my case.

View attachment 945281View attachment 945282

Yeah, FSD desperately needs some context aware speed adjustments to road conditions to override perceived speed limits. I would think that this shouldn't be that hard using a combination of techniques:

1. Use actual non-FSD median speeds on roads.
2. Building on 1 - add in time of day, weather, traffic, etc.
3. Expand this into a more generic engine or neural network that ingests these factors, including actual posted speed limit.

To me, FSD's speed controls seem very rudimentary - follow the speed limit except if there's curves or obstacles or slow moving traffic in the lane to your left. But the algorithm needs to be generalized to go as fast as reasonable based on actual road conditions.

I've only taken FSDb(for bollocks) out for one try. I'm not yet on 11.4.x because I refuse to download it based on comments on forums.

The more I use 11.4.2 the less impressed I am. several regressions and nothing significantly improved that I can tell. Enjoy being on 11.3.6
Based on my usage, I think that 11.4.2 is a step forward compared to 11.3.6.

That said, I often wish I could easily go back to plain old lane centering and cruise control with manual lane changes for freeways / highways and back easily. I still don't trust the car's lane changing decision making.
 
Apparently, you live in a different "earth". Most people drive exactly like this. No I'm not talking about FSD - I'm talking about human drivers.

The inconvenience caused by FSD is highly exaggerated. Taking one more second at a stop sign is not a sign of barbarity.
While you may be right - I refuse to drive like an inconsiderate piece of work just because others do so.

Tragedy of the commons is a real thing, but that doesn't make it right.
 
I just cancel lane changes. Intervention ;)
Man. Sometimes lane changes happen so quick in my refresh S, I don't have time to cancel it. And that's when my hands are on the yoke and I'm NOT texting. When I'm on city or rural roads, it just does whatever tf it wants it seems. I quit trying to figure it out.
 
While you may be right - I refuse to drive like an inconsiderate piece of work just because others do so.

Tragedy of the commons is a real thing, but that doesn't make it right.
You are acting like FSD drives "really inconsiderately". It doesn't. It takes may be a second or more to make turns or move out of stops. Most people will not notice it - except for *very inconsiderate* people who normally tailgate, cut others off and do similar extremely impatient things. I'm not going to do anything out of the ordinary to please such people - whether I'm driving manually or with FSD.

When we are sitting behind the wheel - we think every little thing it does badly can be felt by everyone around us. That is simply not the case. If you follow a FSD car that randomly switches from FSD to manual and the other way and you have to guess when they switched, I doubt you can get it right in any statistically significant way.

Just see that CYBRLFT videos. Most people sitting in the back can't even make out when he is using FSD.

ps : It is possible in your area FSD is really bad compared to mine. Thats a different topic. But don't act as if you *know* exactly how every one else should use FSD and if they don't they are being inconsiderate.

pps : In general I'm a very conservative and risk averse driver. Usually drive on the right, slow lane, give max distance to the front car, hardly ever change lanes to go in front of one or two cars. I bet you can't find a more considerate driver if you looked hard ;) So, to imply anyone using FSD is *inconsiderate* is insulting.
 
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Man. Sometimes lane changes happen so quick in my refresh S, I don't have time to cancel it. And that's when my hands are on the yoke and I'm NOT texting. When I'm on city or rural roads, it just does whatever tf it wants it seems. I quit trying to figure it out.
Agreed - in 4.2 the lane changes are really unnecessary. It acts like a BMW driver ;)

I manage to cancel most of the bad lane changes, probably 90%.
 
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