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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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here, I made it rhyme just for you…

Yeah, I won't subscribe, won't abide,
So saying 'Will some mod...' doesn't turn the tide.
Imagine a note, on dumpster's side,
'Put out this fire,' to responders cried."

To read the posts, a report is the key,
Mayhem unraveled, it's what I see.
40 pages deep, oh what a spree,
Snipping the chaos, it won't come free.

But alas, there's damage, collateral pain,
Commentary lost, caught in the drain.
Dumpster fire rages, snipped in disdain,
For expediency's sake, words in vain.
 
Yeah, I won’t subscribe to this thread. So saying ”Will some moderator…” doesn’t do anything right away. Imagine if you left a post it note on a dumpster saying to first responders, “Please put out this fire.” Same idea.

Someone has to report a post in order for me to read posts here. Then I try to go back and snip all the mayhem. Since this is now nearly 40 pages of just mayhem, it’s going to be a while.

Unfortunately there is a LOT of collateral damage since most of the commentary on the dumpter fire is also getting snipped for expediency’s sake.
Yep I got snipped for that very reason.
 
here, I made it rhyme just for you…

Yeah, I won't subscribe, won't abide,
So saying 'Will some mod...' doesn't turn the tide.
Imagine a note, on dumpster's side,
'Put out this fire,' to responders cried."

To read the posts, a report is the key,
Mayhem unraveled, it's what I see.
40 pages deep, oh what a spree,
Snipping the chaos, it won't come free.

But alas, there's damage, collateral pain,
Commentary lost, caught in the drain.
Dumpster fire rages, snipped in disdain,
For expediency's sake, words in vain.
Give me your angered, your sore,
Your befuddled masses yearning for FSD,
The wretched refuse of junk that came before.
Send these, the joyless, the unimpressed to me,
I light the fire beside the dumpster door!
 
Nags disabled ?
Special "Elon mode" enabled with hacks. But various built-in safety features remain (and complained about by green) of AP jail when boosting over 85mph and closest follow setting is "only" 1 second. From the previous and current 11.4.3 experiences, it somewhat seems like the desired driving behavior is more like this car weaving through traffic squeezing into these 1-second gaps to brake hard just to follow even closer at the speed of traffic in hopes for another gap to try to arrive sooner.

 
FSD 11.4.2 observations. Just took another 500ish mi trip on FSD. A few notes below on the results .

Unrelated to FSD : new charger locations made for almost an hour savings on this road trip (can now leave when charging rate slows down rather than charging to ~80 soc). Awesome progress on chargers. No Bolts blocking magic dock locations :) but pickups do the pickup thing ….

The good
  • “City streets” confident in suburbs/rural towns
  • Less phantom breaking
  • Quite smooth in roundabouts (suburb). Small nudge on entry and it does its thing smoothly
  • Range estimate is amazingly good (granted it’s summer but it’s much better than prior summers ). 4 stops on this trip and all within 2% or so of estimate despite hills, temp change , non-EPA speed.
Less so
  • Rain affects it a LOT more - slows down to 70mph and refuses cruise setting for 75
  • Refuses to engage FSD when it thinks fender camera is blocked (not sure how rain can block the camera - I wasn’t driving in mud or sleet ). Really annoying on road a long drive.
  • Routing insists on being very conservative , routing me backwards to a supercharger I had skipped , despite its own range estimate showing I’d make it to my chosen supercharger. Note: this means it’s also trying to exit the highway by itself (repeatedly) to get “back on track”.
  • Constant music interruption to tell me FSD is degraded because of rain or that cameras are “occluded”

All in all it seems like a mixed bag between regressions and improvements . I used to not have to think much about this drive but with “vision only” it feels less safe as it’ll disengage more easily when it thinks it can’t see well enough. Maybe the next release will drop before my return home 🤞
 
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Kinda silly, isn’t it? It’s still an accident anyway you look at it. Guess it’s ok, since NY is a “no fault” insurance state, but regardless, my insurance still goes up if someone rear ended me. 😂
In hospitals blood banks are notoriously conservative - their overriding concern is to avoid a transfusion reaction so they won’t release a unit of blood unless everything is perfect because you can’t have a transfusion reaction if you don’t have a transfusion. The problem is if you never give any blood you never get the benefit, either, so at some point you have to minimize the risk but balance the risks and benefits.

FSD is similar - if it never drives anywhere it won’t have an accident. But then there’s no point in having FSD if you can’t use it to drive. If you can’t program it to deal with the risks of driving then you might as well quit.
 
Hopefully the FSD team can muster their best v11.4.4 release before the Jun 22 showdown. Financial investor Ross Gerber agreed to provide a test drive for Elon nemesis O'Dowd. Not sure about FSD but Gerber is positive about TSLA although has upset them at times. If I recall correctly he was recently blacklisted to at least one TSLA quarterly earnings event. I guess he's gonna show them. :)

I'm not fond of Gerber's worldy views but I gotta give him credit for stepping up where many FSD OGs have whimped out. It's time for O'Dowd to get his 15mins of FSD fame.
 
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Hopefully the FSD team can muster their best v11.4.4 release before the Jun 22 showdown. Ross Gerber agreed to provide a test drive for Elon nemesis O'Dowd. Not sure about FSD but Gerber is positive about TSLA although has upset them at times. If I recall correctly he was recently blacklisted to at least one TSLA quarterly earnings event. I guess he's gonna show them. :)

I'm not fond of Gerber's worldy views but I gotta give him credit for stepping up where many FSD OGs have whimped out.

They didn't wimp out. O'Dowd cancelled on them. See Chuck's, Omar's, and Dirty Tesla's responses:



 
Good to know. Last I heard Chuck was unwilling to fly out to California, wanted to use his own car, but didn't want to spend the $ to ship it. I don't trust anything Omar does so I'll let that one ride. Good to hear re: DT too although he's now tweeting it's all a waste of time. OG willingness still sounds like a bag of poo.

Aside from the OGs, it still should be an interesting day. I imagine it won't be a live stream which would be a bummer.
 
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Good to know. Last I heard Chuck was unwilling to fly out to California, wanted to use his own car, but didn't want to spend the $ to ship it. I don't trust anything Omar does so I'll let that one ride. Good to hear re: DT too although he's now tweeting it's all a waste of time. OG willingness is still a bad of poo in my mind.

Aside from the OGs, it still should be an interesting day. I imagine it won't be a live stream which would be a bummer.

I honestly can't imagine deciding to trust everything O'Dowd says, but disbelieving everything Omar says.

Distrust both of them? Sure. But trusting one clearly biased party over the other reveals your own biases.
 
I honestly can't imagine deciding to trust everything O'Dowd says, but disbelieving everything Omar says.

Distrust both of them? Sure. But trusting one clearly biased party over the other reveals your own biases.
A little hyperbole there sir? Down the team rah rah rabbit hole you go. All I said was Jun 22 should be interesting.