FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[EVNow]

the fact that Tesla did not take this approach might lead to their downfall. Once they finish the software, they should’ve done the testing and mastered it in a limited area and climate.

And the basis for this feeling is ... ?

I'm assuming you are just like many of us here - non-experts. Right ? When even self-driving car experts don't know how to solve the problem, you & I surely don't know either.

 

[Dewg]

Sounds like a case against the vision only approach.

The downside is there is no other reliable sensor for lane lines aside from camera. There is a high res LIDAR that can detect lane lines if the paint is raised slightly off the ground.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Had to disable Autosteer & TACC on I-8 West between Gila Bend & Dateland. Too much harsh braking due to mirages (I think). Easily intervened of course but renders the feature 100% unusable. Less useful than my 2017 Highlander. Very unfortunate, guess I should have brought it instead.

Perhaps FSDb only usable at night or near dawn and dusk?

FSD Crepuscular?

 

[JHCCAZ]

Had to disable Autosteer & TACC on I-8 West between Gila Bend & Dateland. Too much harsh braking due to mirages (I think).

Heat mirages look a lot like distant puddles ahead, maybe that's why I'm getting a lot of extraneous windshield wipes.
Anticipatory splash mitigation!

 

[sleepydoc]

I was driving with my daughter today and had dry wipes on 4 separate occasions. “so what?“ you say, “everyone knows the wipers suck on 11.4.x.” Here’s the kicker - the wipers were turned off. She was driving herself - no TACC, no FSD, nothing and had never activated them. I checked the wiper settings each time and they were completely off.

 

[JHCCAZ]

I was driving with my daughter today and had dry wipes on 4 separate occasions. “so what?“ you say, “everyone knows the wipers suck on 11.4.x.” Here’s the kicker - the wipers were turned off. She was driving herself - no TACC, no FSD, nothing and had never activated them. I checked the wiper settings each time and they were completely off.

I've noted previously that I've had severe cases of dry wipes while in Park in my driveway. That was on 11.4.7.2, don't know that I've seen wiping in Park since I got 11.4.7.3.

To my knowledge, it hasn't happened yet while I'm out of the car inside the house - but I can't really be sure because I don't think it would trigger my security cameras.

Maybe it's an empathetic ghost-fearing reaction, to provide moral support and comfort for the much-maligned Phantom Braking cortex. An Apparition-Phobia Solidarity support group.

 

[jebinc]

It would be nice to know what the near term plan is for FSD (v11 or v12). V12 capabilties are likely overstated, needs oodles of ideal driver data, and the assumption everything in between can be generalized. V11 has yet to achieve escape velocity. I suspect v11 is a dead end in part from choking on too much data training.

I’d argue FSD itself may be a dead end (with current cars and hardware).

 

[EVNow]

I’d argue FSD itself may be a dead end (with current cars and hardware).

That is a possibility .... but would be the first time Elon has given up. As they say, don't bet against Elon.

Unless you think ... FSD delayed is FSD denied

ps : I've been using FSD "all the time", as usual. Continues to perform poorly at roundabouts - but otherwise has been fine. At night, raining its a "God send". The erratic lane changes are gone now .... except for the rare, weird but mostly harmless changes.

I hesitate to call it ADAS - its more like FSD needs my help sometimes, rather than the otherway round.

 

[Z_Lynx]

Almost Halloween. On the way home, some pretty scary leaves set off the Red Wheel of Death maybe 20 or 30' from the usual stop.

On a more positive note, the last two versions (11.4.7.2 and 11.4.7.3 (after an early stumble or two) are now routinely stopping for a stop sign that fsdb almost always ran. I still reduce speed on approach because I got tired of slamming on the brakes when it would run the stop sign. 11.4.7.3 is stopping a little further forward which improves the view.

I still experience inappropriate slowdowns (phantom braking). Hate how the car cuts one particular blind left turn - car shuddered and squirmed right when it encountered an oncoming car. Hate the random dry wiping (much more than previously).

 

[jebinc]

That is a possibility .... but would be the first time Elon has given up. As they say, don't bet against Elon.

Unless you think ... FSD delayed is FSD denied

ps : I've been using FSD "all the time", as usual. Continues to perform poorly at roundabouts - but otherwise has been fine. At night, raining its a "God send". The erratic lane changes are gone now .... except for the rare, weird but mostly harmless changes.

I hesitate to call it ADAS - its more like FSD needs my help sometimes, rather than the otherway round.

Agree, Elon won’t give up - he will just redefine the goal and pretend it was that way all along. FSD IS a good example of this. Look at the history. What was L5 for 2018 and earlier cars is now (L2–) for these cars at best. Hardware limitations. I purchased in 2019 and the slow redefinition of FSD had already begun. My 2021 Plaid hardware is no more evolved than my 2019, w/HW3. Cameras ba-low, as does camera placement and lack of view in critical areas. A Great “Charlatan” doing charlatan things!

@WilliamG

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

Heat mirages look a lot like distant puddles ahead, maybe that's why I'm getting a lot of extraneous windshield wipes.
Anticipatory splash mitigation!

If rain is in the forecast the wipers are just priming themselves.

 

[EVNow]

he will just redefine the goal and pretend it was that way all along. FSD IS a good example of this.

I don't think so. He still keeps talking about robotaxis.

 

[jebinc]

I don't think so. He still keeps talking about robotaxis.

There has been zero L5 talk since 2019. Even the filing in CA was L2. Time will tell…. Again, I’m talking about current cars and hardware. His robotaxi talk today is a new car with different hardware and geofenced. Robotaxi in 2018-2020 was our cars and no geofencing. We would all make millions renting out our taxis when we were not using it. FSD will sell for $100,000 by then - buy it now and get in on the ground floor… Don’t remember this? That’s exactly the kind of redefining I’m talking about. The Charlatan is so good at it he has you believing it always was the current robotaxi talk, and not the original robotaxi talk.

 

[jebinc]

There has been zero L5 talk since 2019. Even the filing in CA was L2. Time will tell…. Again, I’m talking about current cars and hardware. His robotaxi talk today is a new car with different hardware and geofenced. Robotaxi in 2018-2020 was our cars and no geofencing. We would all make millions renting out our taxis when we were not using it. FSD will sell for $100,000 by then - buy it now and get in on the ground floor… Don’t remember this? That’s exactly the kind of redefining I’m talking about. The Charlatan is so good at it he has you believing it always was the current robotaxi talk, and not the original robotaxi talk.

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/whats-stopping-tesla-from-achieving-level-3-self-driving

 

[WilliamG]

There has been zero L5 talk since 2019. Even the filing in CA was L2. Time will tell…. Again, I’m talking about current cars and hardware. His robotaxi talk today is a new car with different hardware and geofenced. Robotaxi in 2018-2020 was our cars and no geofencing. We would all make millions renting out our taxis when we were not using it. FSD will sell for $100,000 by then - buy it now and get in on the ground floor… Don’t remember this? That’s exactly the kind of redefining I’m talking about. The Charlatan is so good at it he has you believing it always was the current robotaxi talk, and not the original robotaxi talk.

I have no doubt full L5 FSD will come this year. It will have some exceptions, though - for example:

L5 will revert to very basic L2 function if any of the following conditions are met:

1.) Other cars on the road.
2.) Stop lights or stop signs anywhere on journey.
3.) Leaves on road, or leaves on trees.
4.) Any rain of any sort, even light drizzle.
5.) Car is taken out of Park and into Drive.

 

[jebinc]

I have no doubt full L5 FSD will come this year. It will have some exceptions, though - for example:

L5 will revert to very basic L2 function if any of the following conditions are met:

1.) Other cars on the road.
2.) Stop lights or stop signs anywhere on journey.
3.) Leaves on road, or leaves on trees.
4.) Any rain of any sort, even light drizzle.
5.) Car is taken out of Park and into Drive.

#5 is the only one you needed to list!

Edit: I pissed myself rereading the 2nd half of #3…

 

[EVNow]

For every pathbreaking person there are always a million in the peanut gallery throwing stones

In the end - what matters is FSD is great at getting me from A to B with only a few hiccups.

 

[jebinc]

Yes, we all must remember the adage, “Never let the facts ruin a good story,” (aka, line of BS from a Charlatan).

 

[WilliamG]

For every pathbreaking person there are always a million in the peanut gallery throwing stones

In the end - what matters is FSD is great at getting me from A to B with only a few hiccups.

Not happening on any of the current hardware. Quote me on this anytime you like.

 

[Ramphex]

Some people just have low standards and low expectations

Maybe I’d be cool with it if the junk was free, but it wasn’t, and I’ve already had my car for a couple of years and will 100% trade it in for a newer model before the junk is worth anything. $10k to beta test some software, lol. Lesson learned the hard way.

One thing for certain, I will not be wasting my money on this garbage when I get a new car, if it’s even a Tesla.