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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Oh and another interesting 11.4.9 behavioral change from yesterday: I was traveling down a road in a 50mph section at 55 (normal traffic speed, with +10% in my settings matching). There was a posted speed limit change down to 30mph. Most of the traffic ahead of me pretty much ignored the change, and FSDb matched them. The screen showed the limit change to 30, but had my set speed still at 55 but in blue, and popped a message up that said something to the effect of it maintaining speed with the traffic or conditions or something.

I've seen it go under-limit based on the road characteristics (narrow, driveways), but I've never before seen it choose to ignore a speed limit sign just because everyone else is doing it.
It's been doing this for a couple of versions, but only on interstates.
Thanks for the new behavior update
 
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I think this was introduced in the early 11.4 branches actually
Yeah, it was back in July when "Maintaining speed for traffic flow" message was first added in 11.4.6, so it's still new for those who have been on 11.4.4 and also get the blue highlighted set speed from 11.4.7.

The release notes for 11.4.9 combine the additions from 11.4.5 and 11.4.8, so those upgrading from 11.4.4 to 11.4.9 see the same notes overall as there were no notes for the others versions (11.4.6, 11.4.7.x).
 
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So the question is - does Tesla have a robust automated test suit .. they need it to avoid problems like these.
I think Tesla has a good test suit but it's not quite robust yet. But I think they step into the right direction.
Tesla just hired more road testers recently. And these are the first releases (FSD 11.4.9 & branch converging firmware) that Tesla did not give to the early adopters. They were totally tested by internal testers. Tesla is preparing for V12 release without V12 beta.
 
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On 2023.44.30.5.1 now and just got the latest map update as well. It rained all day yesterday and wipers worked properly and no dry wipes today. Car seems to handle roundabouts well so far (limited testing), is faster off the line and makes more aggressive turns - seems much more confident overall. So far so good.
Forgot to add, did well with well marked speed bumps too, an improvement for me.
 
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I just noticed something with the 5.1 update. The UI is now inconsistently displaying a "creep line" for specific ULTs and URTs. Is this something new? The UI used to always show a creep line at a stop sign intersection. Now it does only occasionally.
Could you give more details? Some stop sign is far from the traffic, some are closer. Did you see the creeplines were at the unsafe positions?
 
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Could you give more details? Some stop sign is far from the traffic, some are closer. Did you see the creeplines were at the unsafe positions?
Intersections that showed a creep line with previous firmwares no longer display one. What do you think the criteria are for displaying a creep line? Chuck Cook always seems to have them displayed in his videos.
 
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Just drove our 2023 MYLR (HW4) with 2023.44.30.6 / 11.4.9. Impressive improvement. No dry auto wipes on our currently sunny day. Hi-fi parking assist is definitely more helpful than before, though it looks pretty bizarre on the screen, as if everything is covered in cordyceps fungus. Hoping that improves over time, eh? Oh, and a much better experience across the board while trying out FSDb / EAP / AutoSteer / TACC. Not one superflous nag. One minor nag to apply force to the wheel, but no more frequent than before. No nags for eyeball attention. I did have to intervene once against FSDb while exiting a toll road - the speed limit approaching the exit booth is clearly marked at 25mph, but the car wasn't slowing down fast enough as it approached. The speed limit indicator said 25, but it was still going much faster, really taking it's time slowing down. So, I broke in and slowed her down, told Tesla why, and continued on my way. It wasn't a real problem since I was paying attention, but otherwise I suppose that kind of error could have gotten ugly. I gave FSDb a pretty easy job today, and it failed to terrify me, so that's defintely a step up.
 
Yes, it may seem like L4 is far away, but for me, it's closer than we think
L4 requires at the very least 2000x improvement to MTBF / DE. Tesla hasn’t really even 10x:ed that metric in the last 18 months tbh.

My take: FSDb is a great and capable L2, but it’s likely never going to be L4 on existing hardware. Perhaps a Mercedes like queue chauffeur L3 is possible at lower speeds?