As always, I can just give my experience. Since having FSD Beta, I've had the car "save" me twice. Once was when the car had what I thought was a phantom braking event, but it turns out a car was coming over in my blind spot and the car sensed it might collide. Had I not had it engaged, would that driver have hit me, or would they have corrected themselves - obviously I'll never know. The other time was when it was changing lanes from the #1 lane to #2. It signaled and then started the change, but half-way through the change it aggressively changed back into the #1 lane, giving me a "holy s..." moment. Turns out there was an a-hole in the #3 lane who was speeding and changed lanes into #2 just as my car was starting its change. I saw him blow past me in the #2 lane going quite a bit above the speed limit (like doing 70 in a 45) Had I been in control, there would likely have been a collision as I checked the blind spot and the other car wasn't there, and I'd then move over thinking the lane was clear. Could have been that the speeding driver would have seen me move over, cutting him off in his mind, and swerved to avoid me, possibly causing a ripple with other cars around - again, I don't know.
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FSD is a fraud
- Thread starter TessP100D
- Start date
You are really reaching here. I'd argue that it is still better at speeding than the average human... there's that
.This is true. And makes my point and your point (that you've been talking about on this forum for a while now) that true FSD doesn't exist yet (for consumer cars). When that time comes (soonish), autonomous cars will not be speeding and will ALWAYS be better than the average human.
You're misinterpreting the statement. The HARDWARE is capable of superior... We're talking about the software which Elon just stated would be better than the average driver in 2022.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
How often did you crash before getting FSD Beta?
Well ummm achktually, I'm a FSD Beta tester and have 2 Teslas since 2019. I've also made and watched many FSD videos over the years
."hasn't improved more than a single order of magnitude" - How did you measure this? I'd like to see the criteria you used to determine this one!
Nope. Haha. In my same post from the one you quoted above, I state my estimate for robotaxi and proper FSD.
Ahh, "We have a very, very long way to go" - the most applicable word to apply to FSD haters ever. It simultaneously sounds like it means something while having no content at all.
My last accident was well over 10 years ago where I was rear-ended on the freeway in a chain reaction - someone hit the guy behind me and pushed him into me (thankfully he broke hard enough that the collision was slow speed and no damage to my car - but his rear end was badly damaged). Other then that I've only had 2 other accidents in my life - one was another rear end at a red light where the guy claimed he dropped jelly beans on the floor and was distracted and slammed into me (more likely he was on his phone). And the other one was when I was backing out of a parking space and mis-judged the angle when trying to get around a delivery truck - I scraped the side of my car on the corner of the truck. The truck had 0 damage, but my Prius was unhappy.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
So you understand my skepticism when you say FSD Beta prevented two collisions?My last accident was well over 10 years ago where I was rear-ended on the freeway in a chain reaction - someone hit the guy behind me and pushed him into me (thankfully he broke hard enough that the collision was slow speed and no damage to my car - but his rear end was badly damaged). Other then that I've only had 2 other accidents in my life - one was another rear end at a red light where the guy claimed he dropped jelly beans on the floor and was distracted and slammed into me (more likely he was on his phone). And the other one was when I was backing out of a parking space and mis-judged the angle when trying to get around a delivery truck - I scraped the side of my car on the corner of the truck. The truck had 0 damage, but my Prius was unhappy.
It's very common on this forum for people to claim that FSD or AP are constantly preventing collisions for them but no one admits to having collisions every few thousand miles before getting a Tesla. That's why I find such claims dubious.
When you are in a strange town that has trolley buses (street cars), with or without tracks, it’s always a nightmare...you don’t know which lanes they are on, which way they turn, will they stop or not, are you allowed to cross the rails or drive on them...
People have been claiming Teslas will steer away from other cars for years now. Long before FSD was released. Even without AP engaged.
You do not need FSD to have an active safety system which avoids collisions. You know, like the phantom braking event you thought it was. This is not an argument that FSD is good or improves safety.
My other favorite is where they say "it saved my life, I would have DIED without it."
While simultaneously claiming that Tesals are the safest passive safety cars on the road.
And then showing a video of a situation that wouldn't have even totaled the car.
Elon claimed Autopilot was already 9X safer than humans in 2019, so we're there, right?
Tesla updates Autopilot safety numbers; almost 9x safer than average driving
Tesla's latest update on Autopilot safety is even lighter on data than usual, but it shows significant improvement, with the standard caveats.
electrek.co
He taking over would be a statistically bad idea in 2020:
Elon Musk on Tesla's Autopilot: In a year, 'a human intervening will decrease safety'
Elon Musk reckons Tesla has already won the race for fully autonomous vehicle technology.
www.zdnet.com
It's always just a year away.
And the truth was that the hardware wasn't even capable of FSD beta. But yeah, let's believe him on software stuff.
ExactlyElon claimed Autopilot was already 9X safer than humans in 2019, so we're there, right?
Tesla updates Autopilot safety numbers; almost 9x safer than average driving
Tesla's latest update on Autopilot safety is even lighter on data than usual, but it shows significant improvement, with the standard caveats.
He taking over would be a statistically bad idea in 2020:
Elon Musk on Tesla's Autopilot: In a year, 'a human intervening will decrease safety'
Elon Musk reckons Tesla has already won the race for fully autonomous vehicle technology.
It's always just a year away.
And the truth was that the hardware wasn't even capable of FSD beta. But yeah, let's believe him on software stuff.
The fact that people on here STILL believe what he tweets says..is astounding.
You're right - there is no way to qualify or quantify it. You can read my descriptions of both events and gauge would it have caused an accident had FSD not been engaged? I don't think I'll ever know - but the speeding guy definitely shook me. I personally would have completed that lane change because I didn't see him, so obviously we can't answer the question of what would the speeding guy have done.So you understand my skepticism when you say FSD Beta prevented two collisions?
It's very common on this forum for people to claim that FSD or AP are constantly preventing collisions for them but no one admits to having collisions every few thousand miles before getting a Tesla. That's why I find such claims dubious.
Well now we're just getting into mathematical and logical discussions. Like trying to prove a negative. Or coloration does not equal causation.
If I don't have an accident on FSD, did FSD save my life? How can you prove that?
If I have an accident while not on FSD, would FSD have prevented it? How can you prove that?
Oh my goodness. AYWAYS BETTER? How about this… it will NEVER work properly, never be safer. NEVERNope. You misunderstood.
The goal has been stated as "better than the average human driver by the end of the year [2022]" (this time - the goal has been a moving target). That means better than the worst and worst than the better humans
Most people think they are above average drivers, and that may be the case most of the time. Those slight moments where they are tired, texting, talking, makeuping, eating, drinking, yelling (at children), grabbing (for something in the floorboard), daydreaming, spilling coffeeing, radioing, and speeding (#1 cause of accidents/deaths) are when FSD will ALWAYS be better.
I think people are still conflating robotaxi (L5) with "better than the average human...". I'm optimistic but still think we're 2+ years from full robotaxi with Tesla vehicles. Better than the average human by 2022... I'm cautiously optimistic
CyberGus
Not Just a Member
I’m afraid you are never going to convince me that it is A-OK for an autonomous automobile to occasionally get hit by a train.
What if the car is giving a ride to this thread
I like to see data and make my own conclusions. However, Tesla is the only one that is sending data out to specify the safety of their systems ( I don't see/hear much actual data to refute their claims).
I'm still waiting to get "good" data from Tesla AND the haters
.Lastly, as with most humans, we also draw conclusion from personal experience. I've been using AP and FSD Beta combined for over 2 years. Anecdotally, it's a very safe system when using it correctly(!!) in the operational domain intended. Of course, this is only my opinion... the one that counts for me
Not to mention the safety factor increase is not you vs. FSD, it's you alone versus you PLUS FSD, which makes Elon's prognostications of FSD safety disingenuous. How can he say that interventions would be less safe when it is those very interventions that are keeping the FSD + human driver number ahead in the safety factor. Get rid of the human interventions, and I imagine FSD/Autopilot safety numbers go into the toilet!
Agreed, but that's the reality for all L2 systems right now. Scott brought up how Hyundai and VW's L2 systems are also unreliable and require disengagement. It's an assisted feature right now, with the goal of getting better. Progress is being made as FSD Beta testers help improve the system.
