FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[OxBrew]

I'm just glad I got my car back from service last week. I don't have time to waste riding around hearing a sales pitch for something both wildly overpriced and under baked.

Fortunately I will never buy another Tesla I won't have to take that trip. If the service return ride tweet was not a hoax, it will be fun trying to get me to go on that ride. Won't happen without data showing how safe it is, and a signed contract that says Tesla takes full liability for any damage if it crashes.

No? Give me my car back or I report it stolen.

Yeah, shopping for a new car, this is horse----.

Bye.

 

[aronth5]

I wonder what the real market is for FSD. I watch Teslas that I see driving around Dallas area. I watch how well they center in the lanes, speed fluctuations and turn signal use. On highways, I see the vast majority are clearly not using autosteer. They drift side to side in the lane, many do not use turn signals or just display clear signs of manual driving.

And this is on limited access roads where AP is pretty useful.

If few people bother to use the free AP, how many will even be interested in FSD at any price?

There's clearly a market of interested owners. But, I question whether it's as big as people think. Maybe if it was L4, but even then, I suspect that the vast majority of drivers are not ready to trust the software.

The market could be enormous.
What would drive the FSD market for the average person is L3 where the car gracefully hands off the car to a driver. L3 in this scenario would allow the driver to watch videos, text, read, theatre mode if Tesla enabled that. Tesla could also phase L3. Initially just controlled access highways then city/streets. L4/L5 is meaningless for the vast number of single car owners for the foreseeable future.
TeslaScope has indicated that Tesla's interested in OEM'ing FSD is L3.

 

[Ramphex]

The market could be enormous.
What would drive the FSD market for the average person is L3 where the car gracefully hands off the car to a driver. L3 in this scenario would allow the driver to watch videos, text, read, theatre mode if Tesla enabled that. Tesla could also phase L3. Initially just controlled access highways then city/streets. L4/L5 is meaningless for the vast number of single car owners for the foreseeable future.
TeslaScope has indicated that Tesla's interested in OEM'ing FSD is L3.

Long way from that, not only in terms of software technology but also governmental regulations. That hypothetical market isn’t going to get sold on today’s v12.3.x

 

[lzolman]

From my personal experience, everyone who I’m friends with in real life that have Teslas, do not have FSD, including my own SO.

From my personal experience, everyone who I’m friends with in real life that have Teslas, does have FSD, including my own SO

 

[SidetrackedSue]

TeslaFi will show you the update history for any recent update. In the list of recent updated cars, click on View.

Just to clarify, does it know stuff that happened before you joined Teslafi? I know I seem to be missing the first 6 months of data on drives but have never checked if it knows my update history prior to joining.

 

[rlsd]

This guy said after camera recalibration his experience with v12.3 is very different. He had a very negative post about v12.3 before camera recalibration.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772447763474628819

 

[SidetrackedSue]

Most people don’t use AP because they’re scared of the unknown. A mandatory demo drive at pickup will ease them of the fear by showing them how it feels to be in a car that’s somewhat driving itself.

I would have to question the "most drivers" statement. Even I, the tesla hater now, came into ownership excited to learn all the new driver assist features since that was the number one reason for supporting the decision to buy a tesla.

I do agree that a mandatory demo should be done at pickup just so that new owners, no matter how enthusiastic, are aware of the difference between AP, EAP and FSD, aware of what their car has installed and aware that all three require hands on the wheel and eyes looking outwards and what strikes mean.

This gets me back to the video I saw comparing FSD and a Chinese version and how the Chinese required that you watch a video and take a test before being able to enable and that, if you get shut out of the program for inattention, you have to retake the test. As well, access to their high end ADAS was driver assigned, not car assigned. So in the spirit of our DUI rules here, if you are told you can't drive, another driver can still use the feature/car. It it the driver who is punished, not the vehicle.

(Aside: I wonder how car rental companies are handling AP strikeouts? I'd be pissed if I rented a tesla and didn't have TACC or lane-keep.)

 

[zoomer0056]

If the service return ride tweet was not a hoax, it will be fun trying to get me to go on that ride.

Not real ... bad actors spreading FUD.

 

[lzolman]

So do we have any doubt any more as to the authenticity of the Elon edicts to take new owners and folks with cars done being serviced out for FSD demos? I'm taking them as actual (just not the 12 months one.) If they were "not real" wouldn't Tesla have said that by now?

 

[aronth5]

Long way from that, not only in terms of software technology but also governmental regulations. That hypothetical market isn’t going to get sold on today’s v12.3.x

Why is it a long way off? You don't think if Tesla decided to implement the graceful handoff they couldn't do it in 6 months at least for controlled access highways? Although it's a joke of an implementation Mercedes has L3 right now.

Looks like the market likes Elon's push, up 9 points this morning.

 

[Scott Herbst]

Teslafi doesn't know your update history prior to signing up for teslafi. That is the whole api token thing that allows teslafi to get your information via your permission. I got my 2023 mylr in June of last year and joined teslafi in August and that is when my history on teslafi starts

 

[zoomer0056]

Most people don’t use AP because they’re scared of the unknown. A mandatory demo drive at pickup will ease them of the fear by showing them how it feels to be in a car that’s somewhat driving itself.

It is way more important that this is a first attempt at driver education. So far there is no instruction but to keep one's hands on the wheel and be ready to take over. But most people don't read the manual at all. It's been self OJT or internet training. They spend way too much time watching YouTube videos of people with their hands off the wheel, spend too time reading "OMG, it's so annoying..ga the car keeps telling me to pay attention" (that "ga" is a paragoge). Now with a paltry 1 hr driver education, one doesn't have to read the manual or forum or YT videos. One can see it in action, in person, with an experienced driver.

V12 is a game changer, awesome progress!!!

 

[Krash]

From my personal experience, everyone who I’m friends with in real life that have Teslas, does have FSD, including my own SO

You have very different friends and SO than me. All my Tesla owning friends don’t have FSD. Even my SO and I don’t have FSD, even though we paid for it years ago.

 

[lzolman]

You have very different friends and SO than me. All my Tesla owning friends don’t have FSD. Even my SO and I don’t have FSD, even though we paid for it years ago.

I think by definition if you paid for it, you have it, you may just not be using it. As of this moment, my SO doesn't actually use it either, but I think that's about to change...

 

[Krash]

I think by definition if you paid for it, you have it, you may just not be using it. As of this moment, my SO doesn't actually use it either, but I think that's about to change...

I’d have and use some attempt at it, if only Tesla would install it.

 

[lzolman]

I’d use it if Tesla would install it.

Ah, so you're on that branch where it's not there even though you paid for it? Sorry, that's annoying for sure.

 

[Krash]

Ah, so you're on that branch where it's not there even though you paid for it? Sorry, that's annoying for sure.

It’s not so bad. I live vicariously through you all.

I’d probably be more upset if either 1) everyone thought it was great or 2) I had expected it to work anytime soon when I bought it or 3) I didn’t have some glimmer of hope that Tesla will eventually give up on MCU1 and non interior camera cars and give me some sort of treat. It’s like I’m some sort of dog.

I am genuinely curious as to whether your friends are as enthusiastic as you? And whether you recommend to people to buy it? My friends are not wired like me, and I don’t encourage people to try it yet.

 

[Knightshade]

Long way from that, not only in terms of software technology but also governmental regulations. That hypothetical market isn’t going to get sold on today’s v12.3.x

if Tesla wished to launch L3 they could do it today in at least some US states. There are no "governmental regulations" they'd need to wait on.

In at least a dozen US states it's already legal to put self driving cars on the road without needing "approval" from anybody--- in most of them you only need to self-certify:
The car can drive safely (often citing SAE rules on what each level means)
The car is insured
The car can obey all traffic laws.

That's it.

In a few states you need to file a form self-certifying that- but nobody checks if it's true. In others you don't even need to file the form. The only other requirement any of em have is in a few states you need to have filed a form with law enforcement describing the plan for a car with no human in it interacting with police (which wouldn't apply to L3, and again it's just you self-certifying something- nobody checks)


I don't think they're GOING to do that anytime soon- but it's not because of "regulators"

 

[PianoAl]

... constant jerking off of the steering wheel

You thought fart mode was bad ...

 

[kabin]

Long way from that, not only in terms of software technology but also governmental regulations. That hypothetical market isn’t going to get sold on today’s v12.3.x

Yep. And on the other hand, the remote chance its minimally successful they would throw caution to the wind and deliver L3 beta early at a ridiculous price for the shillers. The old rinse and repeat.

I suspect Elon is looking for anything to distract from this quarter's expected poor production and delivery numbers.