FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[MP3Mike]

I finally got into the camera section of "deep" service mode, and I could not see any signs of calibration progress. This is a pic of what I see on that screen. Am I missing something?

If you tap on each of the cameras does it bring up additional information? I swear there used to be somewhere that showed which camera(s) were still calibrating.

On the main service page if you click the "Service alerts" button are there any active alerts?

It looks like the GPS/inertia sensors may have an issue? Maybe more would show up on the Autopilot -> Sensors page? (Or are you parked in a garage that would have no GPS signal?)

Have you tried unplugging all third-party accessories? USB cables, devices, 12v outlet chargers, etc.?

 

[LSDTester#1]

Even that was bs. He obviously didn’t inhale. He went all Bill Clinton on that thing.

I’m really tired of his incessant tweets. Words mean things, the man moves markets with them and when he goes off flouting sht software versions he obviously hasn’t tried, as more polished and arguably v13, then turns out to be a dumpster fire unworthy of being released,…

I’m kind of over his projections at this point.

 

[lzolman]

If you tap on each of the cameras does it bring up additional information? I swear there used to be somewhere that showed which camera(s) were still calibrating.

Just a camera type, nothing interesting.

On the main service page if you click the "Service alerts" button are there any active alerts?

Yes! Here's the summary, and then the result of tapping on the first one. Lo and behold, it seems to be AP/FSD related, so I uploaded these two pics in my Service chat for the upcoming service. We seem to be getting warmer.

It looks like the GPS/inertia sensors may have an issue? Maybe more would show up on the Autopilot -> Sensors page? (Or are you parked in a garage that would have no GPS signal?)

Right, no signal under my house.

Have you tried unplugging all third-party accessories? USB cables, devices, 12v outlet chargers, etc.?

No, I have not. I have the factory sentry USB in the glove, a USB/12V dock with just an Escort 360 plugged into it. None of that has changed in 2.5 years.

Thanks for your help!

 

[fasteddie7]

Elon even agreed that 12.4 isn't ready to replace 11.3.6. So I'm not sure what the "arguably version 13" means other than hype.

I’m guessing the same as version 12.5 should “arguably called version 14” from the same tweet (or post, whatever it’s called these days.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes! Here's the summary, and then the result of tapping on the first one. Lo and behold, it seems to be AP/FSD related, so I uploaded these two pics in my Service chat for the upcoming service. We seem to be getting warmer.

That is under recent, not active. But could certainly be related.

I have the factory sentry USB in the glove, a USB/12V dock with just an Escort 360 plugged into it. None of that has changed in 2.5 years.

I would try unplugging everything but the factory USB drive to see if it helps. One of those things could have started generating crappy RF and causing a problem. (Or it could be that the interference only prevents a calibration, and you probably didn't have those plugged in for the initial calibration.)

 

[lzolman]

Even that was bs. He obviously didn’t inhale. He went all Bill Clinton on that thing.

I can't tell from that if he actually inhaled or not, but it does strike me as strange that he'd give that quizzical shake of his head a second after exhaling. It does take about 4-5 seconds for me to feel anything after actually inhaling...

 

[lzolman]

That is under recent, not active. But could certainly be related.

So where do you think that active one could be? In any case, this is great, because it'll give Tesla something more to go on.

I'm really glad there haven't been any FSD updates to Nameless since 12.3.6... maybe this'll get resolved in time to play with the next update. Hopefully there's something in that next update actually worth playing with.

 

[Tronguy]

2-3 mph like mine perhaps?

More like 5 mph or so.

 

[JulienW]

Alan says it was too slow doing it and stopped too far back from the other car!

It actually did "park" too far from the curb judging by the screen and the alignment of the car in front.

 

[willow_hiller]

The claimed 5-10x improvement in interventions wasn’t a joke though.

If they actually shipped that much of an improvement to my day to day driving I’d give that a V13 label.

I’m pretty baffled by that claim though. Elon just making things up?

I think it's most likely an estimate from the scaling rules that Ashok described during the Q1 earnings call. Long story short is that they have measured the scaling rate of FSD performance as compute, data, and architecture scales. Here's the long story long:

Ashok Elluswamy -- Director, Autopilot Software

Yeah. In terms of scaling loss, people in the community generally talk about model scaling loss where they increase the model size a lot and then their corresponding gains in performance, but we have also figured out scaling loss and other access in addition to the model side scaling, making also data scaling. You can increase the amount of data you use to train the neural network and that also gives similar gains and you can also scale up by training compute, you can train it for much longer and one more GPUs or more dojo nodes that also gives better performance, and you can also have architecture scaling where you count with better architectures for the same amount of compute produce better results. So, a combination of model size scaling, data scaling, training compute scaling and the architecture scaling, we can basically extrapolate, OK, with the continue scaling based at this ratio, we can predict big future performance.

Obviously, it takes time to do the experiments because it takes a few weeks to train, it takes a few weeks to collect tens of millions of video clips and process all of them, but you can estimate what is going to be the future progress based on the trends that we have seen in the past, and they've generally held true based on past data.

The thing I don't understand in the context of the end-to-end network and this estimated scaling is the "polish" that Elon has described in recent tweets. Unless they're doing fine-tuning on the model for each point revision, the only thing that could make sense is there are bugs in the handling of the input to the model and output from the model that they're fixing.

 

[swedge]

About FSD 12.4.1 being released soon, I am in a glass-half-full mood.

Elon tweeted earlier this morning recognizing issues with the 4.1 build. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the rollout stopped in favor of 4.2 in a few days

Reading carefully...

Omar/WholeMars speaks of going "wide", and replacing 12.3.6. Musk calls this accurate.

We would not expect an FSD release to go wide, i.e. to the entire fleet, until after the many thousand of "testers" (who are still held on 2024.3.25) have given it a shakedown. So, sending v12.4.1 out to the tester group soon is not inconsistent with these statements. Polish is what testers are good for.

How long does it take to look through the all data from the (very roughly) hundred or so cars which are already on 12.4.1 since Fri?

So, unless there is some flagrant fatal flaw, the next tester wave could come very soon. Or not. We'll see.

Maybe Tesla just forgot about us. ;-)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

~95% of my interventions are just pressing the accelerator to speed it up a little bit. (I don't count my rolling the max speed up, because that is a result of the offset percentage that I set.) So if they make speed control just try to maintain the max set speed that would easily be a 5-10x improvement for me. (However, it doesn't seem like V12.4.1 has fixed this.)

Yep. A few times improvement over current seems completely conceivable if they address the big ticket items in the Pareto. No idea if this is how/why Elon made the claim though.

 

[FSDtester#1]

So where do you think that active one could be? In any case, this is great, because it'll give Tesla something more to go on.

I'm really glad there haven't been any FSD updates to Nameless since 12.3.6... maybe this'll get resolved in time to play with the next update. Hopefully there's something in that next update actually worth playing with.

Is your car called "Nameless" or is that just an expression? Mine is "Ohm My"... wonder if @JHCCAZ can follow that one being a high ranking engineer and all....
He might be resistant to respond though.

 

[uscbucsfan]

About FSD 12.4.1 being released soon, I am in a glass-half-full mood.


Reading carefully...
View attachment 1055309

Omar/WholeMars speaks of going "wide", and replacing 12.3.6. Musk calls this accurate.

We would not expect an FSD release to go wide, i.e. to the entire fleet, until after the many thousand of "testers" (who are still held on 2024.3.25) have given it a shakedown. So, sending v12.4.1 out to the tester group soon is not inconsistent with these statements. Polish is what testers are good for.

How long does it take to look through the all data from the (very roughly) hundred or so cars which are already on 12.4.1 since Fri?

So, unless there is some flagrant fatal flaw, the next tester wave could come very soon. Or not. We'll see.

Maybe Tesla just forgot about us. ;-)

It appears you read that completely wrong.

Elon and Omar are saying 12.4.1 isn't ready, yet. We will likely see another version test internally and influencers before any additional testers are added.

So, 12.4.1.2 or 12.4.2 (or as WholeMars said, 12.4.3) then some testing, then if it passes it will start to trickle out.

 

[FSDtester#1]

It actually did "park" too far from the curb judging by the screen and the alignment of the car in front.

Thanks Alan for your forensic depiction of the video.

 

[FSDtester#1]

About FSD 12.4.1 being released soon, I am in a glass-half-full mood.


Reading carefully...
View attachment 1055309

Omar/WholeMars speaks of going "wide", and replacing 12.3.6. Musk calls this accurate.

We would not expect an FSD release to go wide, i.e. to the entire fleet, until after the many thousand of "testers" (who are still held on 2024.3.25) have given it a shakedown. So, sending v12.4.1 out to the tester group soon is not inconsistent with these statements. Polish is what testers are good for.

How long does it take to look through the all data from the (very roughly) hundred or so cars which are already on 12.4.1 since Fri?

So, unless there is some flagrant fatal flaw, the next tester wave could come very soon. Or not. We'll see.

Maybe Tesla just forgot about us. ;-)

This was my reply to that post:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800212488476295637

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm sure this was already discussed but the videos from black tesla show a pretty big step back on UPL with 12.4 @AlanSubie4Life's beer appears to be safe for another release of FSD.

 

[lzolman]

Is your car called "Nameless" or is that just an expression? Mine is "Ohm My"... wonder if @JHCCAZ can follow that one being a high ranking engineer and all....
He might be resistant to respond though.

That's his actual name. Reference: Nameless: The Collection

Nameless is a badass who doesn't know his own name, he just gets instructions on his phone to go to so-and-so hotel where there's a room waiting for him full of artillery and further instructions, and then he goes and messes with some evil dude, a different one each story. His theory (at least at the end of the first series, I got too pissed at my Kindle for being an ASS to finish the second...) is that he's some rich mogul who purposely had his memory wiped so if he were caught, no one could be implicated. Apparently his #2 guy is feeding him the instructions.

 

[fasteddie7]

All attention might be diverted to banning Apple devices and not FSd this week. I think Craig’s on stage demo highlighting the ford Mach e might have put him over the edge.

 

[FSDtester#1]

That's his actual name. Reference: Nameless: The Collection

Nameless is a badass who doesn't know his own name, he just gets instructions on his phone to go to so-and-so hotel where there's a room waiting for him full of artillery and further instructions, and then he goes and messes with some evil dude, a different one each story. His theory (at least at the end of the first series, I got too pissed at my Kindle for being an ASS to finish the second...) is that he's some rich mogul who purposely had his memory wiped so if he were caught, no one could be implicated. Apparently his #2 guy is feeding him the instructions.

Sold, time to change my name on TMC to Nameless, or A$$hole as requested via multiple dms....