Yep! Neither are working today so they need to keep both irons in the fire hoping something is eventually palatable.
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FSD v12.x (end to end AI)
- Thread starter Buckminster
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- #fixphantombraking autopilot chill is not chill elon is an ass fix fsd extreme late deceleration fsd does not commit to go fsd does not maintain proper speed fsd hard and late braking fsd jerky driving fsd late deceleration fsd stops too early too quickly fsd stops too far behind line fsd tailgating in city streets
Since the early report that 2023.38.10 is an FSD 12 release, I check TeslaFi for it daily. Always zero installs, but now it shows 3 installs. Yet more interesting, it shows two in Germany and one in France!
Due to US regulations, Europe may get V12 first.
We don’t yet allow science experiments on public roads over here. The cars, if v12, are likely operated by Tesla employed test drivers. Legislation might be in place by 2025 for some form of fsdb in the EU.
TeslaFi is a bit hacky in some aspects. If you're basing that on teslafi.com/firmware?detail=2023.38.10, it's doing a prefix match and getting vehicles actually on 2023.38.100 (additional "0").
TeslaInfo claims the release notes for 2023.38.10 "as seen in a real Model 3" via Tesla API has an entry for "FSD Beta v12" with the text being just "FSD Beta v12 upgrades the city-streets driving stack to a single end-to-end neural network trained on millions of video clips, replacing over 300k lines of explicit C++ code." Which I suppose could be real and just a placeholder before releasing to end users.
Are you sure? Isn't it Mercedes Drive Pilot was approved in Europe before it was approved in only Nevada and California?
FSD Beta v12 upgrades the city-streets driving stack to a single end-to-end neural network trained on millions of video clips, replacing over 300k lines of explicit C++ code.
Google search seems to indicate this was first indexed on tesla-info back on December 8th whereas news of 2023.38.10 initially rolling out to employees was back on November 24th, so potentially there was some additional employee rollout that tesla-info was able to detect.
Assuming those release notes are true, it's interesting that they do call out "single end-to-end neural network" which seems to try to emphasize no separate module for existing perception and new module for control.
Now, this is weird. I was on the 2023.27.xx branch when I traded in my 2018 M3 LR RWD for a 2023 M3 LR AWD. Got 11.3.something, so FSD got transferred.
After a bit and a couple of downloads, am currently on 2023.38.9 which has 11.4.4; I've been watching you guys get updated to (I think) 11.4.8.something as FSD-b marches on. So be it; I'm on HW4 anyway, now, so (I thought) it'd be a while before FSD got incremented to 12 for all you HW3 types.
Just checked TeslaFi, kind of looking around for the recall update, 2023.44.30, and to see if there were any updates. And noticed three new loads out there:
2023.38.100.1; 2023.38.200.1; and 2023.38.200.2. And there was a mention above about TeslaFi's indexer being a little wonky, so looked at the details on these three.
And, now the weird parts:
2023.38.200.1 says that the previous release was 2023.44.1. Um. that's a backward movement on the middle number, thought that didn't happen. And that there're six cars on it.
2023.38.100.1 also says the previous load was 2023.44.1, with one user.
2023.38.200.2 has a previous load of 2022.20.8, so it looks like somebody late to the party.
Usually the [n00] releases are factory loads.
So, not sure if this is R12 of FSD-b. Or maybe these are the initial OTA recall versions or something.
No release notes on any of these.
After a bit and a couple of downloads, am currently on 2023.38.9 which has 11.4.4; I've been watching you guys get updated to (I think) 11.4.8.something as FSD-b marches on. So be it; I'm on HW4 anyway, now, so (I thought) it'd be a while before FSD got incremented to 12 for all you HW3 types.
Just checked TeslaFi, kind of looking around for the recall update, 2023.44.30, and to see if there were any updates. And noticed three new loads out there:
2023.38.100.1; 2023.38.200.1; and 2023.38.200.2. And there was a mention above about TeslaFi's indexer being a little wonky, so looked at the details on these three.
And, now the weird parts:
2023.38.200.1 says that the previous release was 2023.44.1. Um. that's a backward movement on the middle number, thought that didn't happen. And that there're six cars on it.
2023.38.100.1 also says the previous load was 2023.44.1, with one user.
2023.38.200.2 has a previous load of 2022.20.8, so it looks like somebody late to the party.
Usually the [n00] releases are factory loads.
So, not sure if this is R12 of FSD-b. Or maybe these are the initial OTA recall versions or something.
No release notes on any of these.
.100 or .200 might also be used for some cars being serviced. You generally should ignore these loads as far as being something special.
Thanks for pointing that out. Indeed looking into the detail as provided by Teslafi for the three individual cars all three are 2023.38.100, not 2023.38.10.
Sorry to all for my false alarm.
It somewhat seems like Tesla is keeping a portion of the population "behind" on 2023.38.9 so that those with FSD Capability could potentially upgrade to 2023.38.10.x with FSD Beta v12 instead of getting "ahead" with 2023.44.1. However now with holiday update to be 2023.44.25.x and recall remedy 2023.44.30.x, there will likely need to be additional integration work on Tesla end before people can get v12 with holiday + remedy.
Maybe interesting is TeslaFi does show vehicles still updating to software without the remedy over the last several days, so there could be potential for v12 to roll out as 2023.38.10.x even without remedy. Although be careful in watching TeslaFi updates as another hacky aspect is it seems like they track things by account as opposed to vehicle, so someone buying a new car will appear as moving from the old car's version to the new car's version.
More likely, the AP recall has paused the 2023.44.1 rollout and that everyone on the production branch will be getting 2023.44.30. this should include the holiday update as well.
V12 will not appear on customer cars until well into 2024. It has yet to progress beyond the first 100 employee car rollout to higher ups. So, it's a long way from you and me.
Curious that Tesla is introducing augmented reality navigation and high fidelity park assist. Seems like the two could be combined for a lot of potential visualizations in v12?
Do people think Tesla can pull this off even with HW4 (lacks front bumper camera for example)? HW3 would be even harder with no upgrade path. Plus the many cars that don't have radar anymore.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
For the record, I chuckled at this question - not because it is a bad one, but because it has been the subject of tens of thousands of posts at this point.
I think it’s well established that many people think Tesla can “pull this off” (definition flexible). There are wildly varying opinions on the matter. I would say that the people who have been around longer are less optimistic.
I don’t think current hardware will go beyond very nice L2 (it’s already quite good, has many flaws, and it is possible it improves safety). (This opinion is also well established.)
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Thanks. I've followed Tesla for 15 years. I'm well aware there are many that don't think Tesla can pull this off without LiDAR and other sensors they are missing. I rolled the dice and got FSD on my new car but understand it's more of something interesting to try and to not rely on it at all. Clearly you have to pay attention at all times.
I'd be happy with L3 although that falls short of Tesla's promise. Flawless driving in good weather on highway where the driver doesn't have to pay attention until notified it needs assistance would be an amazing leap forward to long distance travel. I don't expect the current hardware will get L5 so I'm not sure what Tesla will do with the billions in fees it's collected on that promise. Will be an expensive recall. They really should have stopped promising this years ago and walked it back a bit.
But they have a lot of smart people there so I'm hoping someone there knows what's going on and is able to push back against any unrealistic goals from a certain CEO. Unlikely someone like that is able to work there though.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
They're still selling FSD though. Isn't that still promised to be L3 at least (one day)?
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