FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[AlanSubie4Life]

Giving them the opportunity to judge it for themselves at no cost is a smart play.

One month is far too short - just totally pointless for most people. Need 3 months minimum; 6 months would be more likely to convert the very small number of people who would not buy without a trial.

In the end FSD is so expensive that only the completely price-insensitive people will buy it. The people to convert are the ones who are so bad at driving that they realize FSD is a worthwhile improvement for them (a very very small number of drivers).

But for most people regular AP is plenty good and a 90% solution. And free.

 

[Yelobird]

One month is far too short - just totally pointless for most people. Need 3 months minimum; 6 months would be more likely to convert the very small number of people who would not buy without a trial.

In the end FSD is so expensive that only the completely price-insensitive people will buy it. The people to convert are the ones who are so bad at driving that they realize FSD is a worthwhile improvement for them (a very very small number of drivers).

But for most people regular AP is plenty good and a 90% solution. And free.

Their target audience is the subscription service like most of the software industry. 1 month is more then enough to attract that audience to at least be intrigued to test it again in the future as it evolves. I suspect one of the reasons Tesla set the purchase value so high is to move everyone towards subscription. There is NO future liability or “IOU” in subscription services.

 

[JHCCAZ]

I'm still confused about the discussion on this free trial. To my knowledge, Tesla has been giving at least a one month free trial of FSD for some time now. I remember telling my son that he would get get the trial on his new Model Y; we were discussing it because he was at the time subscribed on his 2020 Model 3. He still owns both cars.

Sure enough he got 3 months on the MY, mid September to mid January. So I'm not sure what exactly is new about this program.

EDIT: I think I figured it out- the prior free trial was associated with a referral code, not blanket for all new purchases. Sorry for any confusion but I left this message up for the record. ( I don't know what percentage of cars got the referral-based FSD trial before)

 

[Supcom]

One month is far too short - just totally pointless for most people. Need 3 months minimum; 6 months would be more likely to convert the very small number of people who would not buy without a trial.

In the end FSD is so expensive that only the completely price-insensitive people will buy it. The people to convert are the ones who are so bad at driving that they realize FSD is a worthwhile improvement for them (a very very small number of drivers).

But for most people regular AP is plenty good and a 90% solution. And free.

I wonder what the real market is for FSD. I watch Teslas that I see driving around Dallas area. I watch how well they center in the lanes, speed fluctuations and turn signal use. On highways, I see the vast majority are clearly not using autosteer. They drift side to side in the lane, many do not use turn signals or just display clear signs of manual driving.

And this is on limited access roads where AP is pretty useful.

If few people bother to use the free AP, how many will even be interested in FSD at any price?

There's clearly a market of interested owners. But, I question whether it's as big as people think. Maybe if it was L4, but even then, I suspect that the vast majority of drivers are not ready to trust the software.

 

[swedge]

I only used 12.3 for 1 mile today just to try it out and on a 2 lane road with a double yellow line it went on the double yellow line for a second, it was during a very slight curve in the road

Cool. Finally they got you on board. Patience pays off again!

 

[Yelobird]

I'm still confused about the discussion on this free trial. To my knowledge, Tesla has been giving at least a one month free trial of FSD for some time now. I remember telling my son that he would get get the trial on his new Model Y; we were discussing it because he was at the time subscribed on his 2020 Model 3.

Sure enough he got 3 months on the MY, mid September to mid January. So I'm not sure what exactly is new about this program.

That was a promotion for sales. Now it’s just a 1 month for all.

 

[Supcom]

I'm still confused about the discussion on this free trial. To my knowledge, Tesla has been giving at least a one month free trial of FSD for some time now. I remember telling my son that he would get get the trial on his new Model Y; we were discussing it because he was at the time subscribed on his 2020 Model 3.

Sure enough he got 3 months on the MY, mid September to mid January. So I'm not sure what exactly is new about this program.

There are two things. There are a lot of owners who never had a free trial of FSD. And only those who currently have FSD have tried V12.

 

[Hiline]

I wonder what the real market is for FSD. I watch Teslas that I see driving around Dallas area. I watch how well they center in the lanes, speed fluctuations and turn signal use. On highways, I see the vast majority are clearly not using autosteer. They drift side to side in the lane, many do not use turn signals or just display clear signs of manual driving.

And this is on limited access roads where AP is pretty useful.

If few people bother to use the free AP, how many will even be interested in FSD at any price?

There's clearly a market of interested owners. But, I question whether it's as big as people think. Maybe if it was L4, but even then, I suspect that the vast majority of drivers are not ready to trust the software.

Most people don’t use AP because they’re scared of the unknown. A mandatory demo drive at pickup will ease them of the fear by showing them how it feels to be in a car that’s somewhat driving itself.

 

[Ramphex]

I wonder what the real market is for FSD. I watch Teslas that I see driving around Dallas area. I watch how well they center in the lanes, speed fluctuations and turn signal use. On highways, I see the vast majority are clearly not using autosteer. They drift side to side in the lane, many do not use turn signals or just display clear signs of manual driving.

And this is on limited access roads where AP is pretty useful.

If few people bother to use the free AP, how many will even be interested in FSD at any price?

There's clearly a market of interested owners. But, I question whether it's as big as people think. Maybe if it was L4, but even then, I suspect that the vast majority of drivers are not ready to trust the software.

From my personal experience, everyone who I’m friends with in real life that have Teslas, do not have FSD, including my own SO.

Reasons vary from price (being the most common), to nags and cabin camera, to being older and not techy, to just not trusting the car to drive itself. I have no intentions on convincing any of them to get FSD, and always offer for them to try it while driving my car if they want to experience it for free.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Their target audience is the subscription service like most of the software industry. 1 month is more then enough to attract that audience to at least be intrigued to test it again in the future as it evolves. I suspect one of the reasons Tesla set the purchase value so high is to move everyone towards subscription. There is NO future liability or “IOU” in subscription services.

It’s not like there is some huge untapped market of people out there who would willingly pay $200 a month on the regular (or intermittently) for FSD, but cannot stomach that first month out of pocket to try it out.

 

[Mardak]

I think the biggest issue is camera calibration

Sounds like Tesla has already been working on skipping the driving camera calibration:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772483366761398375

Thankfully, Tesla has already been prototyping a solution over the last two years. If implemented in time, it will allow vehicles to instantly have access without adding any extra miles to the odometer before deliveries.​

​

Although unclear if "in time" is referring to making it into the initial 2024 factory build that is already getting 12.x?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772483368736944233

 

[j0shm1lls]

It's almost like Elon knew they were working on speeding up camera calibration.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772340748194623647

 

[gottagofast]

Sounds like Tesla has already been working on skipping the driving camera calibration:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772483366761398375

Thankfully, Tesla has already been prototyping a solution over the last two years. If implemented in time, it will allow vehicles to instantly have access without adding any extra miles to the odometer before deliveries.​

​

Although unclear if "in time" is referring to making it into the initial 2024 factory build that is already getting 12.x?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772483368736944233

Oh yea ASS by mid april

 

[primedive]

Seems that they still have some work to do on recognizing and driving around obstacles in the road:

 

[JulienW]

Seems that they still have some work to do on recognizing and driving around obstacles in the road:

Yea I posted that yesterday day but that seems like an alternate universe in a different time.

 

[JulienW]

WOW, what a roller coaster. The tempest in the FSD saga. Checked app for 12.3.1 first thing this morning and nada. Then looked at TeslaFi and appears stalled or pulled. Now after pouring through 4 pages it looks like Tesla is working on or maybe or could or fake or...... a 24.2.x with 12.3.2.

So I guess it is time to order popcorn and sit back and wait see what the hell actually happens.

 

[Nizzore]

I wonder what the real market is for FSD. I watch Teslas that I see driving around Dallas area. I watch how well they center in the lanes, speed fluctuations and turn signal use. On highways, I see the vast majority are clearly not using autosteer. They drift side to side in the lane, many do not use turn signals or just display clear signs of manual driving.

And this is on limited access roads where AP is pretty useful.

If few people bother to use the free AP, how many will even be interested in FSD at any price?

There's clearly a market of interested owners. But, I question whether it's as big as people think. Maybe if it was L4, but even then, I suspect that the vast majority of drivers are not ready to trust the software.

My wife has had basic AP for 5 years. 5! Rarely uses it. I sit in the passenger seat as we cruise on the highway in pure disbelief

 

[Krash]

…So I guess it is time to order popcorn and sit back and wait see…

For those late to the movie…

1. A year ago Elon said he would have a free FSD trial when it was stable.
2. Around noon on Monday, March 25th, the first major media outlets reported that Elon communicated to employees their need for taking new customers on test drives. Shortly afterward, media outlets started reporting a ONE month trial.
3. Someone here posted an almost certainly fake TWELVE month trial email/tweet with no source and no “/s” on the end. (Cough, TK211K, Cough.) That post and reposts were deleted by me just now.
4. Whole Mars Catalog, a reputable source, tweeted at Musk that they were stuck on a test drive in their new car waiting for the cameras to calibrate, to which Elon replied that he hoped Mars was joking, probably because Musk didn’t consider about the delivery backup that camera calibration would cause.

Did I miss any major plot lines?

 

[TjckTock]

Just adding my .02. I got updated to 12.3 over the weekend and feel it is, indeed, a significant improvement over v11. So much so I will start using it regularly. Prior to V12, I always turned off FSD after testing each update it due to the numerous erratic and erroneous lane changes I would experience. Did not get a single EELC on my 40 mile round trip and the car got me both to work and back without any disengagements. My commute is about 8 miles freeway and 12 miles surface streets each way. Although I did not drop out of FSD, I did do some voluntary interventions: 1) To move into the right lane earlier so I wouldn't be "that guy" trying to squeeze in at the last second before the exit and 2) to increase my speed to match conditions and speed of traffic around me. I tried AUTO speed on the drive back but it didn't seem to change the behavior much.

Although there are still lots of things to work on, I feel like this version is actually useable and useful to me. I've never had an accident in over 40 years of driving (except I did once back into a tree at a dark camp site), however that has a lot to do with luck since I have definitely done a lot of stupid things and was only saved in those cases by other drivers paying attention. If I am talking to a passenger or even just thinking real hard about something else I will often miss my exit so I have been looking forward to a functioning FSD for a long time. I don't mind if I feel the need to occasionally nudge the car to go faster or opportunistically change lanes earlier. It just needs to stay on track and get me where I am going safely. Yes, it would be much better if I could take a nap, but for the first time FSD is actually a useful feature and not just a party trick.

 

[Ramphex]

My wife has had basic AP for 5 years. 5! Rarely uses it. I sit in the passenger seat as we cruise on the highway in pure disbelief

Mine is the same way. I’m not in disbelief, her Model Y with AP drives like hot garbage and she doesn’t want to play the games with it. Engage, then disengage to switch lanes to reengage every time, terrible braking performance (that would not pass its own Safety Score), constant jerking off of the steering wheel, and god forbid you look at the center screen for more than 1 second it yells to pay attention. She finds it easier to just drive manually and do whatever she wants to do.

I honestly think it takes a certain tinkering kind of people to endure this sort of nonsense for the wow, cool, or fun factor of the fact that there is software making some decisions in driving us. As I mentioned before, I don’t know a single other person outside of this forum that has FSD and I have at least 10 friends that own different models of Tesla vehicles. Most of them see it as a nuisance, a waste of money, and are very content with driving the traditional way.

Maybe FULL autonomy, with no nags, supervision, etc would change their mind, but we’re a long way from that. Most of the people in this thread aren’t rookies and know how to game the junk to have fun with it, regular people have other things to do and could care less to mess with it.