Yes, I did miss that. What was the time frame?
I was thinking that (other that people using it as a way to help fund Tesla altruisticly) the delays in release would cause a negative effect on take rate.
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Yes, I did miss that. What was the time frame?
I was thinking that (other that people using it as a way to help fund Tesla altruisticly) the delays in release would cause a negative effect on take rate.
see my earlier edit. Timeframe is first ~90k AP2 cars, sometime at the end of summer/early fall
pdxgibby
Software Engineer
Not having as much money as you had a quarter before is loosing money, sure investments aren't strictly the same and we could go through the IR to find if Tesla looses money or not.
But essentially we both agree they will need even more money, so no matter how you call it, the outcome is the same.
Also,I'm pretty sure the S and X are demand limited. Otherwise I'd loose all hope in Tesla ever ramping up the 3, if they can't even meaningfully increase the S sales from 2016 to 2017, despite only being limited by supply. And they wouldn't have so many "inventory cars", with great deals.
No matter what it is, the FSD take rate is high enough and the company needs money, so I wouldn't report anything not so good either.
How many new customers are really that informed? Tesla continues to show that fake video, so unless your followed Tesla closely, have one already, or spend a lot of time on the forums before, you wouldn't really know too much about the delays. So actually not a lot has changed, especially since most AP2 users still have their car and most customers since then are new to AP2.
You will still get everything shown in the video, "soon". It's basically the same premise as back when, just that they have more to show for EAP.
Building the Model 3 line took money, but (assuming it is profitable) improves Tesla's long term cash flow. Depending on how ramp goes, Tesla could be self funding(at some expansion rate)
YoY sales are up (S+X combined, they use the same final assembly line) . Inventory is also the sales, service loaners, (and I think in transit) vehicles. More SvCs means more inventory. The 3 has a manufacturing line designed for 250k a year growing to 500k/yr along with supply base. Elon has said many things need to change to get S/X volume higher.
Agreed, assuming they were not legally required to.
What I don't get is that they are willing to take a risk that big. When you sell and take money for something you don't yet have, you increase the overall risk for the company in the future. Its like usind the credit card for fun now and take bill later. The money you raise is not money you really don't have until the feature is delivered. And the money you have raised now, means the feature you have to deliver for free later. I really hope they have this under control. FSD is also a feature that is really hard and nobody else has released it for the public yet, making it an even bigger risk.
Altough much safer, they have also raised other money for things they have to deliver later:
- Founders edition Roadster (money now, deliver for free in 2020).
- Deposits for M3, Semi and Roadster
They also have a lot of debt in the Referral campaigns that they have not yet fully paid. 21/22" rims, free supercharger, discounts on Roadster, mini Teslas, Home batteries etc...
Consider the alternatives:
- Borrow money - need to pay interest!
- issue stock - dilutes existing shareholders making them unhappy, possibly bad impact on the stock price
So in that regard "I'd gladly pay you tomorrow for a cheeseburger today" is the most optimal money raising strategy. It comes with additional bonus (this is purely hypothetical so don't get into a rage just yet) - if they fold later, bondholders and shareholders would have a claim against the company assets, property and whatnot, but reservation holders likely don't have anything, it's like unsecured credit card debt (only at 0% APR)
Good point. Let's just hope they actually consider this money a loan, and spend them on actually downpaying the promises they have made rather than available assets for new markets.
But Tesla should be a professional company, so I take they plan for future cashflow.
This isn’t even a reservation, like with the Roadster and Semi and hundreds of thousands still reserved 3s.
And since it’s not refundable and the terms of FSD especially when it will be available are so loose, I doubt they worry too much.
In Germany at least they offer 2 year leases, so some people might actually get off their AP2 car’s lease this year with no FSD functionality.
It would be interesting to see what happens then.
Reportedly if you push hard enough you might get a deal from them like say free FSD for your next Tesla or some such.
Either way I am not sure why they even depreciate FSD in a lease, it's not like it's becoming stale or nonfunctional over time, so one would think it would not just be on the depreciation schedule, but alas.
Well, you have to assume some depreciation, since the car at some point, 20 years and 500k miles, will be worth nothing even with or without FSD.
Still, I quickly calculated what Tesla assumes for depreciation.
So in Germany Tesla assumes that FSD looses 47.3% after 2 years, 53% after 3 years and 58% after 4 years, with 20k km per year.
If you just drive 10k miles a year: 46.6% after 2 years, 51% after 3 years and 56.6% after 4 years.
But that's roughly the same as the depreciation on the interior trim, PUP, or glass roof. They probably just use a fixed value for all options.
Now if that's fair or not is another question.
I heard an argument multiple times that Teslas with AP2+ would have a fixed floor price-wise, thanks to AP2, because the car wold be then snapped by self-driving taxi fleets and so would always be worth jus above the fares it could generate or something.... And FSD is very instrumental in that as you might imagine
Let's hope the AP update Elon has tweeted about contains some FSD features that blows us away. I know it's a long shot, but a man's gotta have some hope .
.Let's hope the AP update Elon has tweeted about contains some FSD features that blows us away. I know it's a long shot, but a man's gotta have some hope
I'm not holding my breath but I am hoping for something. There is nothing else I can do! Tesla holds all the keys.
I believe in @verygreen’s guesstimate, that the day after tomorrow we’ll reveive some really, really hyped up coast-to-coast news.
This forum is going to go bananas over it, so stay tuned
This forum is going to go bananas over it, so stay tuned
googleiscoul
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely......
Let's hope the AP update Elon has tweeted about contains some FSD features that blows us away. I know it's a long shot, but a man's gotta have some hope
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
d21mike
Active Member
Does it make sense they need the New Navigation System (maps) to come before any meaningful updates on EAP and FSD? If so, I am hoping that happens soon.
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