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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Well now WTH.. they must be expecting to crank up production. What ever the cause of the slow down seems planned with a rapid ramp after. Why else would Tesla keep pouring gas on the fire, pardon the co2 emissions. Remember, the non-owner group is very large compared to owners and employees. Do we know if these are also waiters or did anyone reserve online.. @RubberToe should know, I believe he runs one of those tracking docs.
This does look like there may be a step change in ramp happening. One question is how much of this step change will show up in Q1 results. Maybe the battery module line from Germany landed early, but it will still take a few weeks from battery module to car delivery. People configuring now may not see their cars until early April.
 
This does look like there may be a step change in ramp happening. One question is how much of this step change will show up in Q1 results. Maybe the battery module line from Germany landed early, but it will still take a few weeks from battery module to car delivery. People configuring now may not see their cars until early April.

2500/w, the Q1 goal, is not dependant on the new machines from Germany. But would be required for a higher rate of production. Wouldn't it be nice to have a Q1 surprise that's a positive for once.
 
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This does look like there may be a step change in ramp happening. One question is how much of this step change will show up in Q1 results. Maybe the battery module line from Germany landed early, but it will still take a few weeks from battery module to car delivery. People configuring now may not see their cars until early April.
Tesla have returned to the big weekly invites since Feb 14. Obvious they are going for a big end of March delivery push IMO. Invites were basically nonexistent for ~3 weeks prior to that. Not sure what the reason was behind that. Line upgrades?
 
FART makers are still subject to substantial risk from the financing debt, because the financing debt is backed by vehicles whose residual values are declining at a rapid rate, not only due to Tesla's disruption, but also because of higher interest rates, high lease return rates, and so on. Therefore, their balance sheets carry much higher leverage and risk than that of Tesla.
I am struck by how lean Tesla's debt to equity ratio is. As you point out, heavy lease financing is dangerous, and this is made worse at a time when the market may transition from gasmobiles to EV. It could be devastating if these makers have to cut prices on gasmobiles, as this will crush margins while damaging residual values on leased vehicles. So that could be a double whammy. Additionally, in a time of transition, these companies may need to raise capital so they can burn cash like Tesla, but if they are heavily leveraged the financial markets may not be so accommodating. They may be stuck just building ICE so they can service debt. Some of these OEMs will not survive.
 
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I just
Regarding the possibility of a refresh, listen to last week's (Feb 18) episode 133 of 'Ride the Lightning' from 11:00 to 12:45. A very well known and trusted caller (I'd say near 0% chance he's making this up) was given the nod, nod, wink, wink from a Tesla associate that an S/X refresh is coming very soon.

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 133: More Model 3 Driving Impressions

Incorporate external design cues from Roadster 2.0 into a refreshed S and I will instantly cancel my Model 3 reservation...which just got pushed back to a March-May window.
 
Tesla Germany is taking advantage of the Diesel ban opportunity that Citys have now and the media turmoil around it with a marketing initiative called "go anywhere".

They approached me as a reservation holder as well as the media trying to motivate people to test drive the X and S.

Quite some pressure on the ICE Auto industry here as its expected that the lost value for older Diesel cars will be in the 4 to 5 digit € range and the industry is completely reluctant to compensate owners or change HW to make the vehicle clean. Our legal system in Europe is really weak in that respect.

Given the lack of real alternatives to Tesla cars excluding low range EVs like i3 and lack of alternative charging points I expect the current anger to force many people to take a deeper look into Tesla.

Last Saturday I visited a showroom with a friend who is a real gas head and worked for BMW and as an OEM supplier consultant before and put him into a S driver seat. He was blown away from the sound system, touch screen and coolness factor. We did not arrange a test drive up front.

After we investigated the quality of both showroom cars and found unfortunately a lot of large gap issues and not well done finish in the trunk. It did surprise me that they did put this cars in the showroom but can only assume they take what they get and sell them anyway. However we both concluded Tesla will get over it over time and improve as this alignment issues could indeed hold buyers back to make the final step.

Nach Diesel-Urteil: Tesla erhöht Probefahrtmöglichkeiten in Deutschland › Teslamag.de
 
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