How long until we get a 400+ mile model Y?

[MP3Mike]

Ok so what if they buy at X rate/kw and sell at 2 or 3x? Then?

Maybe you should look at the financials of other charging networks. EA, EVgo, etc. and see how they are doing on that plan. (I'm pretty sure they are all still losing money.) Maybe someday they will turn and make a profit, but I doubt it will be soon, or very much.

For example, I don't know how much the cables cost Tesla, but I've heard that the liquid cooled cables cost EA ~$15k/each, and they have to replace them really often. Running a charging network is expensive.

 

[Zalick]

Ok so what if they buy at X rate/kw and sell at 2 or 3x? Then? Factor in 15 yrs from now with half the entire market EV’s and opened up to all manuf cars. I’m not saying today.

Ya if I actually got 300 miles/485km on my MYP I’d be one happy camper. As it is my 100% is already at 458km in just 3 months of ownership. Down from the 488 at delivery. I charge to 80 or 90 and extrapolate.

competition would jump in to keep profit margins minimal. Anytime you have retail sales like that, with relatively low barrier to entry, people will fight for the Pennies And 2-3x is not that great.

Tesla has a huge advantage right now with the cost to build a single charger at under $50k. But there is tons of room for expansion and competition will follow.

The monopoly and high fees won’t last.

 

[Destiny1701]

If you think solar panels, in the next 50 years, will be efficient and powerful enough to run a super charger and charge to 90% in under 10 minutes, I’ve got a bridge in Alaska you might want to buy.

Buddy we have have computing power in our one smartphone which dwarfs that which put a man on the moon 50 yrs ago lol.

Tech is advancing so rapidly I wouldn’t doubt some other form of energy harnessing comes online and becomes cost effective.
15 yrs ago there was no Tesla. 30 yrs ago no Amazon, 35 yrs ago no Google, 40 yrs ago no Internet, 50 yrs ago no cell phones…
Half a century is a LONG time to assume Solar tech won’t explode

 

[Zalick]

Buddy we have have computing power in our one smartphone which dwarfs that which put a man on the moon 50 yrs ago lol.

Tech is advancing so rapidly I wouldn’t doubt some other form of energy harnessing comes online and becomes cost effective.
15 yrs ago there was no Tesla. 30 yrs ago no Amazon, 35 yrs ago no Google, 40 yrs ago no Internet, 50 yrs ago no cell phones…
Half a century is a LONG time to assume Solar tech won’t explode

most of that is software. And only Apple really makes money selling physical phones now.

Bad analogy as computing power has a much more attainable maximum throughput.
In the last 50 years solar panels have gone from 1% efficiency to 25%. The theoretical max is about 86%. So at best we can get triple the efficiency of today which would still require a huge area of panels to power super chargers. And we are VERY far away, if ever, from getting anywhere close to that efficiency level.

The amount of energy hitting the earth from the sun per square meter is not changing.

Now if Tesla figured out a better nuclear option, count my investor dollars in.

 

[chan_man]

"True" in this context does not have any meaning.

65 mph ?
75 mph ?
85 mph ?
95 mph ?

Dry roads ?
Wet roads ?
1" of snow ?
3" of snow ?

Ambient 70F ?
50F ?
30F ?
10F ?
-10F ?

No headwind ?
5 mph headwind ?
10 mph headwind ?
15 mph headwind ?
25 mph headwind ?

This is true even for gas powered cars, most people will never get to the EPA ratings for mileage but no one ever complains about that. There is just more noise about EVs that people notice.

I was given a chance to drive the new Hummer EV over the weekend. It is impressive, a 10,000 pound vehicle that can go 0-60 in 3.2 is amazing, until you go to charge. The Hummer has a 150KW battery pack with a 330 mile range. The battery is 2x the MY and as expected, will take 2x the time to charge, there is no way around this. So for this analogy, if you can fit a 150KW battery into a MY, the expected range will be about 600 but the added weight will reduce the range. I don't think I would want to wait that long to charge. The MY today fits the bill for range and charging time for most people, for new owners with range anxiety, it may not be enough, but as you drive it and get used to stopping, it works.

 

[boredwitless]

the Polestar 3 SUV is 300 miles EPA (at $84k !!)

And that from a 111 kWh battery !!

 

[Whatstreet]

The current MY LR has an estimated 318 miles of range, so 90% to 20% (or 70%) provides then 222 miles,
But if you plan to drive to a nice lookout campground or cabin where you want to spend the weekend,
you cannot be far away from a supercharger, or public L2 charger, for more than 111 miles,

And this is for a new car, while there would be about 5% to 10% degradation after few years.
And also without considering winter and bad weather or heavy wind,
and the real range of a car loaded with four adults and their gears.

So driving off any main highway is still a big limitation for EVs, unless you can carry some solar panels or a trailer with some batteries.

Maybe EVs used only for local commute and short weekend trips only need about 300 miles of range,
but as soon as you plan doing a longer trip, in states or areas with few superchargers,
using an SUV or a Van, in winter, a 500 miles EV range seems a requirement.

So true.

Given some degradation, moderately cold weather, 75 MPH speed and limiting usage to 60% or 70% of capacity, a +400 mile specified range is necessary.

Start with 330 mile range with about 10% degradation. Then moderately cold weather may loose another 15% at freeway speed you may loose another 10%.

So now you have 35% range lose or 215 miles of range.

When limiting min charge to 20% and max charge to 80% you get 60% of those miles between charges so about 128 miles.

I want 200 miles between charges for those conditions, so I need a little more. A specified range of 500 miles would give me 195 miles of range between charges for those conditions.

You might just expect a 40% of specified miles for distance between charges.

 

[DanDi58]

I don't think these are as imminent as some people think. Battery supply (and the up-chain raw materials) are always going to be the limiting factor until there is a dramatic breakthrough in battery technology. This is only going to get worse as legacy and new companies start switching to EV's. Tesla could probably do it today with the 4680-equipped MY but they need those batteries for the Semi and CT. And I agree with others that the current levels of range are perfectly adequate for all but the small portion of EV drivers who are constantly doing 400 - 500 miles a day, multiple days a week. For the vast majority who do road trips a few times a year and can charge at home, lugging all of those extra batteries needed to get to 400 or 500 miles of range just doesn't make sense. And also as noted, the availability of fast charging options is something I'd rather gets focused on, than more cars with 400 - 500 miles of range.

 

[SageBrush]

And also as noted, the availability of fast charging options is something I'd rather gets focused on, than more cars with 400 - 500 miles of range.

YES

 

[GWord]

I wonder if in 1908 people stood around at the local saloon or whatever and had to endure the inevitable Model T driver that complained that his horse could go from Amarillo to Dumas nonstop on 3 oat kernels and why wouldn’t Henry Ford include a 100 gallon fuel tank.

 

[Unclepaul]

Easy to get 400 mile range. You just need to install a bigger battery pack.

Downside is more expensive, weighs more, takes longer to recharge, less interior space, lower production numbers due to battery shortages, and most of all...less profit.

250-350 miles of highway range seems to be the current sweet spot.

 

[SageBrush]

Downside is more expensive, weighs more, takes longer to recharge

Takes longer to charge for more miles.
Takes same time to charge for same miles using L2, less time to charge same miles on trips using fast charging

Imagine if ICE owners demanded gas tanks as small as possible so that the time to fill-up was minimized

 

[ucmndd]

I think it will happen within 5 years, outside of unusual weather events.
Power is a matter of panel number along with battery storage.

To put it bluntly, there’s no chance in hell of a PV breakthrough like this within 5 years.

Even a “small” 8 stall v3 supercharging station needs to be able to supply about 700kw of power.

That’s ~1,750 400w solar panels at ideal production. More like 2,500 in real world conditions.

Storage for when the sun isn’t shining? A single Tesla Megapack with 3.9MWh of storage lists for $2.4 million.

Large scale grid-independent supercharging stations are decades away, if ever.

 

[SageBrush]

To put it bluntly, there’s no chance in hell of a PV breakthrough like this within 5 years.

More panels does not a 'breakthrough' make. It is just more panels.
Perhaps you are presuming panels only on the car canopy or above the parking area ? I contend no such thing.

As for storage, best to not confuse the retail price to you Vs what it costs Tesla to manufacture. So long as retail demand at current retail prices exceeds supply we will not see large battery storage at Superchargers. When there is excess supply, Superchargers will be supplied with storage.

 

[ucmndd]

More panels does not a 'breakthrough' make. It is just more panels.
Perhaps you are presuming panels only on the car canopy or above the parking area ? I contend no such thing.

I guess we’re back to the beginning then. If you think Tesla is going to install ~2500 solar panels and multiple megawatt-hours of storage at every new supercharger station within 5 years, I too have a bridge in Alaska we should talk about.

 

[SageBrush]

If you think Tesla is going to install ~2500 solar panels and multiple megawatt-hours of storage at every new supercharger station within 5 years, I too have a bridge in Alaska we should talk about.

I don't presume every Supercharger, just those with demand charges high enough, and utilization low enough, to make it cheaper to go the PV/Battery route.

It is an optimization problem, and since I expect Tesla to reach $50/kWh production cost of storage within 5 years, it follows that Superchargers will be so equipped. If not complete independence from the grid, then varying degrees of peak shaving.

Peak shaving can be considered with some back-of-the-envelope arithmetic: If a kWh costs Tesla $50 and it saves them $20 a month in demand charges, it will happen. If Tesla has to pay for 10 kWh of storage to save a kW of demand charges every month, it will happen. If Tesla has to pay for 20 kWh of storage to save 1 kW of demand charges a month, it is probably a wash.

 

[TomServo]

Shouldn't we be asking "how much are we willing to pay for more range"?

How much does a kWh cost today and how much lower does it need to go to allow manufacturers to add more kWhs to a vehicle? And when will that be?

 

[FLRifleman]

The title says it all... A bunch of competitors are targeting the 400-500 mile range already.

Do you think that a variation of the model Y gets 400+ Mi range any time soon? If so, how soon?

Not any time soon, in either the near or medium time frames.
Towing, remote locations, low mileage use, apartment dwellers with no at home charging, this is where gas cars will continue to shine for a long time into the foreseeable future.
There's little incentive for Tesla to build a 400+ mile Model Y when battery production capacity and raw materials are highly constrained. They are far better off reducing the cells in each vehicle, and producing more cars at a more affordable price. A smaller battery at a lower cost also results in a much more reasonable pack replacement cost, verses what we have today.

 

[SageBrush]

Shouldn't we be asking "how much are we willing to pay for more range"?

How much does a kWh cost today and how much lower does it need to go to allow manufacturers to add more kWhs to a vehicle? And when will that be?

Exactly.
Personally, I'm a lot more interested in expansion of DC charging; and as a secondary goal, a moderated taper. Average 200 kW charging from 10% - 80% would be awesome. For the current Model Y pack capacity, it would work out to 57 kWh in 17 minutes

If people have to pay $10k extra for another 50 miles of range and Tesla sells 5M cars a year, that is $50B a year that could have been spent on my two above preferences. It is a no brainer since Tesla can double its current world-wide network for nicely under $2B. In 10 years, the Supercharger network would be 250x the size of what we have today. That works out to a Supercharger every 1/2 mile ... wherever Teslas travel, the world over ;-)

 

[sleepydoc]

A larger pack ends up charging at a higher average C rate

Imagine if ICE owners demanded gas tanks as small as possible so that the time to fill-up was minimized

The critical difference is 'charging' for an ICE vehicle is orders of magnitude faster and basically constant - you virtually always count on filling at 5-10 gallons per minute. With EVs charging rate is determined by the battery type, size, state of charge, cooling system, ambient temperature, charging equipment and even whether someone is parked in the stall next to you. Beyond that, often times the maximum charge rate is only achievable for a short period.

If you're talking about charging xx kWh then a larger battery will charge faster. If you 're talking about charging from 20-80% then it will take longer. It may actually take disproportionally longer depending on how the pack and cooling system are designed.