How trustworthy is Tesla's predicted "2015, 2016" supercharger map?

[bcsteeve]

Are you implying that Tesla gets free electricity for their SuperChargers in Canada? I've never heard of that happening anywere, so far.

Maybe not in the rest of Canada, but in BC... yes. And I'm not implying so much as stating I was told that by the Owner Advisor that I did the test drive with, but it has also been on the news that BC Utilities is mandated to provide free electricity to public charging stations for EVs. It hinted it may not be forever, but for the time being it is paid for by the tax payers of this province. Perhaps it is unusual that our electric utility is government run?

 

[ZBB]

I'm in the upper part of the United States in the area affectionately known as "Canada".

Hello from Southern Alberta (others may know it as "Arizona")...

 

[bcsteeve]

Yes but they do say... "The map above is a representation of the corridors we plan to enable and the timing thereof. Exact locations and timing may vary."
Note, "corridors" and, maybe more importantly, "plan." (not, "pledge")

Fair enough. In the end, however, marketing is about perception far more than wording. I'm not an idiot, yet I missed that entirely. Or I saw what I wanted to see. Either way, the perception I got from that page was that there *WILL* be a supercharger in my town in 2015, just as I'm sure those in PA who wrote above perceived they would be getting ones near them. A lawyer can certainly say "we have no liability because we made no explicit promise"... but that's why lawyers aren't in charge of advertising.

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Hello from Southern Alberta (others may know it as "Arizona")...

LOL

 

[ZBB]

Maybe not in the rest of Canada, but in BC... yes. And I'm not implying so much as stating I was told that by the Owner Advisor that I did the test drive with, but it has also been on the news that BC Utilities is mandated to provide free electricity to public charging stations for EVs. It hinted it may not be forever, but for the time being it is paid for by the tax payers of this province. Perhaps it is unusual that our electric utility is government run?

I don't believe that's true. Coincidentally, the chairman of BC Hydro has been in my Tesla...

Here is BC Hydro's EV charging information page -- talks a lot about ensuring the infrastructure is ready, not about free electricity...
EV Charging infrastructure guidelines

 

[Khatsalano]

It seems that things at Tesla change daily based on new information. That's a great way to run a business, but it also means maps like the "SC to be" you're pointing at are constantly outdated. Sometimes, we are surprised with new locations going live, that were not on that map. Other times, they are hitting the (outdated) plan exactly. Other times, they are behind plan because of constraints.

- K

 

[bcsteeve]

I don't believe that's true. Coincidentally, the chairman of BC Hydro has been in my Tesla...

Here is BC Hydro's EV charging information page -- talks a lot about ensuring the infrastructure is ready, not about free electricity...
EV Charging infrastructure guidelines

Yeah, you're right... I should do a little research before spouting off and especially before making $100k decisions. I was mostly going by what the guy at the test drive said. I asked him specifically how Tesla can provide the Superchargers for free and he said they have a deal with BC Hydro for free electricity, at least for the time being. I then recall seeing in the news how taxpayers were footing the bill for charging stations. Now that I do a little reading, I see that is for the "majority of" Level 2 chargers. I see now there is an agreed upon charge of $0.35/kWh for DC Fast charging [source].

 

[ecarfan]

I admit I was thinking of the supercharger as a potential local charger and I wasn't even going to bother installing a home charger... The cost of an empty-to-full charge here is roughly C$9.35. That's roughly 7.2L of fuel at today's prices. If I accept the stated range, that gets me 1.65L/100km equiv and that's pretty fantastic (my current fairly-economical cars are about 7.0 L/100km)

As you say, electricity is cheap compared to gasoline. And home charging is far more convenient than going to a Supercharger even if it's just a mile away.
Please realize that Telsa can plan for a Supercharger in a certain area but difficulties with permitting, leasing, rules and regulations often result in delays or a change of location
Really, if you like the car then buy it and charge at home. You won't regret it.

 

[Rocky_H]

@bcsteeve, Quote: “but it has also been on the news that BC Utilities is mandated to provide free electricity to public charging stations for EVs.”

I am still skeptical of that claim, but if so, did it occur to you that these are actually private charging stations, not public ones? They are owned and operated by Tesla and can only be used by their customers. Not sure whether that qualifies as a public charging station.

Anyway, regarding the timing of Superchargers, the route that was most important to where I live and travel was I-84 from the Oregon/Washington area down to Salt Lake City Utah. That was originally on the 2014 map. Then, I think it was near the beginning of 2014, they reworked the maps, removed that route(bumped it to 2015) and put in a bunch of other ones for 2014. I was a little disappointed, but I saw the routes through the middle of the country that they were prioritizing first and actually was very supportive of that, being much more heavily traveled and relatively more important than the one I wanted for myself. That I-84 route is being done now, so they do eventually get to them.

I still agree, though, that Canada has been really neglected for a long time, when a small number of chargers would have been quite a big help.

 

[tdelta1000]

It's trustworthy enough that Tesla is still spending large sums of capital to build the network worldwide despite what stock analysts are predicting. As Jerry33 said some delays are due to permits.

 

[neroden]

Full disclosure: I'm *still* waiting for the one supercharger required near Paducah, KY to connect St. Louis with the Southeast, instead of forcing us to drive an extra 250 miles each way through Indianapolis, and it bugs the crap out of me, just like Evan is frustrated with the lack of addressing I-44 (I really want that one too, since Branson is a big destination for us).

Just like I'm waiting for Erie, PA and others are waiting for Columbia, MO. I think the short list of 'gap-fillers' should be prioritized.

 

[TaoJones]

Expect zero correlation between the 2016 completion forecast and reality. They're well behind schedule, partly because it appears that they've decided to commit to DENSITY as well as DISTANCE (a good thing) but with the same pool of resources (not good).

As as a result, it is still not possible to get from Maine to Key West nor from LA to NYC unless you like detouring through South Dakota. In fairness, we're only 1-2 SCs away from the north-south, and 0-1 SCs away from a middle west-east route (Kansas).

Still doesn't help for the 6 months out of the year that snow tires are necessary/advisable or chains required in certain conditions. As noted, there is a complete wasteland between Tucson and West/Central Texas. Try plotting a course from Florida to San Diego. Go ahead - I'll wait. Note the Ebola virus/shepherd's crook route that you get to take around Texas or thereabouts. That's about a 700-1000-mile detour (round trip), folks.

That said, it's not all bad. In fact, even if the SC network is not "finished" until 2018, it will still represent the most significant distance EV-related achievement (on the road) in human history. In just 5 years. It's phenomenal any way you slice it.

Meanwhile, consider the current state much like a lithium-ion battery; the first 80% (ok, not quite) is done. Now that the low-hanging fruit is out of the way, it will take somewhat longer to secure that last 20% (relative to the first 80%). Happily, part of the slowness does include upgrades to the network itself (thinner cooled cables, more solar).

In in the end, it'll get done when it's done. They will not be finished by the end of 2016 unless more resources are added, and unless some miracles happen with certain permit processes. Some would say it's easier to land a rocket on a floating barge than to light a fire under an entrenched local or regional bureaucracy.

 

[mknox]

Are you implying that Tesla gets free electricity for their SuperChargers in Canada? I've never heard of that happening anywere, so far.

Certainly not. Every Supercharger I've been to in Canada or the US has a utility meter installed and someone is paying the bill. In Canada, it is Tesla Motors.

 

[Rocky_H]

Just like I'm waiting for Erie, PA and others are waiting for Columbia, MO. I think the short list of 'gap-fillers' should be prioritized.

Gah. I really wish people would stop referring to waiting on Columbia, MO to fill a gap. Many people routinely easily drive across Missouri right now. Yes, I know the the 60kwh models can’t do it yet, and in Winter time, it will be needed, but it’s not currently an impassable gap.

 

[SeminoleFSU]

What Tesla has been able to accomplish with regards to the supercharger network is nothing short of amazing.

Having said that though, I'm not sure if supercharge.info has started to decline in terms of up to date info, but my perception is that the super charger build out in the US seems to be slowing.... I definitely do not think the 2015 map is going to be representative of how things will look by the end of this year... This is because Tesla tends to over-promise and under deliver in a lot of ways. They should really work on trying to be more conservative with their promises so they can be sure and meet the expectations they project... A lot of their problems of not meeting expectations of their customers are self-imposed by over promising IMO.
As in example, their 0-60 times were slower than what the actual performance of the cars were, which to me is how things should be done... if they approached the supercharger and battery swap rollout in this manner people would be a lot less disappointed and actually pleasantly surprised when they exceeded those promises/expectations.

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The same goes for autopilot, the powerwall, and countless other things.... still love my car... but Tesla needs to be more careful what they promise so they don't have to renege on so many things

 

[Brass Guy]

I remember the Sturbridge MA supercharger. It was "coming soon" before I purchased, and at the time I thought it was going to be key to my use. It remained "coming soon" well after I took delivery, and I got nervous. Eventually the pin completely disappeared from the map. Luckily some plans changed and I did not require that SC.
Later, Auburn was built instead.
My point is you cannot rely on that map for any specific locations. Until there is construction, don't count on it. I rely only on supercharge.info for specific "coming soon" superchargers. Tesla's map is just what they say, their plan for travel corridors.

BTW, you can't actually count on one after construction starts. Ex.: Sagamore was complete for several months before being powered up. Not entirely Tesla's fault either.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

How trustworthy is Tesla's predicted "2015, 2016" supercharger map?

Eventually the pin completely disappeared from the map. Luckily some plans changed and I did not require that SC.
Later, Auburn was built instead.
My point is you cannot rely on that map for any specific locations. Until there is construction, don't count on it. I rely only on supercharge.info for specific "coming soon" superchargers. Tesla's map is just what they say, their plan for travel corridors.

BTW, you can't actually count on one after construction starts. Ex.: Sagamore was complete for several months before being powered up. Not entirely Tesla's fault either.

This is how I see it, too. I was stalking (not in need of, just normal fanaticism if that makes ANY sense) the Coming Soon pin around Baytown TX until it suddenly became the 95% complete North Houston gallery/service center/24-7 TesLounge Supercharger. Not even on the same highway but it is kind of "in the corridor" if you really need it for East-West or West-East travel...

 

[sitter_k]

What Tesla has been able to accomplish with regards to the supercharger network is nothing short of amazing.

Having said that though, I'm not sure if supercharge.info has started to decline in terms of up to date info, but my perception is that the super charger build out in the US seems to be slowing.... I definitely do not think the 2015 map is going to be representative of how things will look by the end of this year... This is because Tesla tends to over-promise and under deliver in a lot of ways. They should really work on trying to be more conservative with their promises so they can be sure and meet the expectations they project... A lot of their problems of not meeting expectations of their customers are self-imposed by over promising IMO.
As in example, their 0-60 times were slower than what the actual performance of the cars were, which to me is how things should be done... if they approached the supercharger and battery swap rollout in this manner people would be a lot less disappointed and actually pleasantly surprised when they exceeded those promises/expectations.

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The same goes for autopilot, the powerwall, and countless other things.... still love my car... but Tesla needs to be more careful what they promise so they don't have to renege on so many things

Undersell, under promise over deliver everyone is not only satisfied they're down right giddy. It would be more of the "Wow Tesla does it again! This is why they're different!" rather than what we're used to these days, the jokes about "Tesla Time" and prize giveaways for guessing how long autopilot will be delayed for, Sadly it seems the modus operandi is now over promise under deliver and expect delays on delayed timelines.

 

[emir-t]

Any Europeans in this thread? Western and Northern Europe SC network is amazing even today but 2015 shows Eastern European expansion and at the very end is Istanbul Supercharger. With the Istanbul SC I expect first store + service centre to be opened up so I can finally buy the car I've been dreaming of. However, 4 months left till the end of 2015, still no Istanbul supercharger work visible nor any expansions towards Eastern Europe. Seems like they are focusing on Italy and Spain nowadays, i.e. southern Europe.

Heck 2016 shows 9 SC for Turkey alone, they are obviously aware of the potential Turkey has. We have even higher ICE taxes than Norway so Teslas will sell like hotcakes here. However, as of today, you can't even buy one. They don't deliver to Turkey as it is not EU and there obviously aren't any service centres. So if you get a dead 12V battery, or get involved in an accident and if you have imported on your own means, you're screwed.

So far they've had 3 senior job applications posed for Istanbul but I would have loved to estimate a time frame. Any other Europeans here that have went through the same processes and knows how things go, where I should check etc?

Thanks in advance for the replies. This 3+ years of waiting couldn't end sooner...

 

[rapoport3a]

it is still not possible to get from Maine to Key West nor from LA to NYC unless you like detouring through South Dakota.

That latter route isn't awfully direct, but it's not that bad. Try Kansas. Meanwhile, driving from the northeast to southern Texas isn't good. Let me know what you see between Nashville and SE Texas, or in West Virginia…other than nothing. Not too interested in detouring along the Gulf coast or going through---you guessed it---Kansas.

 

[jerry33]

That latter route isn't awfully direct, but it's not that bad. Try Kansas. Meanwhile, driving from the northeast to southern Texas isn't good. Let me know what you see between Nashville and SE Texas, or in West Virginia…other than nothing. Not too interested in detouring along the Gulf coast or going through---you guessed it---Kansas.

US-40 would work just fine. No need to go through Kansas. Just use the destination chargers for the two gaps.