I'm starting to think the X still isn't ready...

[Hank42]

As a general rule, you do not wirelessly integrate safety critical systems for aesthetic reasons... especially when latency is a priority.

I don't think latency comes into play here.

 

[Super_Popular]

Maybe this is why Jerome moved over to engineering for a while?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Like AO said, this is EXACTLY what they did w/ Model S. Hand-built Founders cars were delivered to make a "customer-shipped" deadline and then a multi-month wait until Sig cars were delivered. Same old Tesla. They have a huge lead on the industry but they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again.

With respect, it seems to be working for them...if the Model S is any indication. I also don't think other companies could do a better job. If you look at how other companies treat concepts, sure they seem to meet deadlines a little more often, but the finished product is NEVER anywhere close to the cool shiat they display a few years before.

 

[SeminoleFSU]

I guess Tesla just plain couldn't find the insurance company willing to underwrite the risk of the car taking the opportunity to drive off the front of the stage and plow through the audience in an unstoppable figure 8 and wipe out the first 2000 customer orders ... and the whole company for that matter, if ever a driverless Tesla is parking itself and suddenly decides to go on a rampage commute all by itself.

For some reason reading this part of your post made me think of this... To be honest, I'm happy not to have autopilot in my car...

 

[FredTMC]

Maybe this is why Jerome moved over to engineering for a while?

he did? He's back? Source? TIA

 

[FredTMC]

Like AO said, this is EXACTLY what they did w/ Model S. Hand-built Founders cars were delivered to make a "customer-shipped" deadline and then a multi-month wait until Sig cars were delivered. Same old Tesla. They have a huge lead on the industry but they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. If/when they have any decent competition this will bite them in the ass.

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And by "ramp up production" you mean, "actually built on the line by the robots."

Guys, Here's what's going on (IMO)...remember there two lines in the factory actually: A Robotic weld line and conveyor-based vehicle assembly line.

Based on what we know, here's what's going on with how MX founders cars are built:

1). Stamping. Aluminum body parts are produced in normal production stamping process. IMO, all the stamping dyes for MX are complete and being used for producing car panels. These parts aren't "hand made"

2). Robotic "Body line" for Model X. We've been told from last ER (August) that tesla built a NEW body line (called body line 2). Elon twitted a picture recently of this new body line with the robots welding together an MX (AKA Body In White)

3). Paint. Model X cars are painted in the new high rate paint shop. (Discussed in Q2 ER)

4). Vehicle assembly. This is the conveyor-based assembly line where factory workers start with the painted Car body and assemble the car at numerous stations. It's this final assembly step that tesla MAY not be using the conveyor to move the MX along the assembly line steps. Simply the few MXs that have been built are likely completed by workers without using the moving conveyor

Therefore, I think it's likely that tesla is getting ready now to begin assembly of MX on the conveyor line in step four above.

 

[eepic]

Guys, Here's what's going on (IMO)...remember there two lines in the factory actually: A Robotic weld line and conveyor-based vehicle assembly line.

Based on what we know, here's what's going on with how MX founders cars are built:

1). Stamping. Aluminum body parts are produced in normal production stamping process. IMO, all the stamping dyes for MX are complete and being used for producing car panels. These parts aren't "hand made"

2). Robotic "Body line" for Model X. We've been told from last ER (August) that tesla built a NEW body line (called body line 2). Elon twitted a picture recently of this new body line with the robots welding together an MX (AKA Body In White)

3). Paint. Model X cars are painted in the new high rate paint shop. (Discussed in Q2 ER)

4). Vehicle assembly. This is the conveyor-based assembly line where factory workers start with the painted Car body and assemble the car at numerous stations. It's this final assembly step that tesla MAY not be using the conveyor to move the MX along the assembly line steps. Simply the few MXs that have been built are likely completed by workers without using the moving conveyor

Therefore, I think it's likely that tesla is getting ready now to begin assembly of MX on the conveyor line in step four above.

This is great colour on it and makes sense, thanks!

 

[CmdrThor]

4). Vehicle assembly. This is the conveyor-based assembly line where factory workers start with the painted Car body and assemble the car at numerous stations. It's this final assembly step that tesla MAY not be using the conveyor to move the MX along the assembly line steps. Simply the few MXs that have been built are likely completed by workers without using the moving conveyor

Therefore, I think it's likely that tesla is getting ready now to begin assembly of MX on the conveyor line in step four above.

I was on a factory tour just a few weeks ago and the guide indicated that we might see a Model X on this final assembly line. The line was also stopped at the time and he indicated it might be due to a Model X on the line because it currently takes them a little longer to make a Model X. We didn't end up seeing one on the line, but it does seem that at least some have been assembled on that line.

 

[Signaturex]

I was told I would get mine by end of year latest
guessing we won't know what is happening until someone visiting the factory confirms they have seen the X in production

 

[EldestOyster]

The story we've been told for the last year or so was that they wanted to avoid the slow ramp up like the Model S experienced, as they kind of felt their way through the production process. They have been running the cars down the line since the spring. They have very smart production guys, who've done this before. To me, this translates to...we could make a few cars in July, but wouldn't have real production until end of September. Instead, we will wait until end of September to show the cars, and light the fuse on the production line.

I would like to believe this; it will be a surprise if it does happen. And I'm an Engineer, and well acquainted with the lovely sound made by deadlines as they go whooshing by. It always seems it will be easier than it turns out to be. Hmm, maybe I could get into management.

As for "complicated", it's the Engineer's job to make it "buildable". It can be done, and this is why Engineers get to work in the production area: they get to see it happening and get feedback from the workers.

 

[strider]

With respect, it seems to be working for them...if the Model S is any indication. I also don't think other companies could do a better job. If you look at how other companies treat concepts, sure they seem to meet deadlines a little more often, but the finished product is NEVER anywhere close to the cool shiat they display a few years before.

You deleted my last sentence. Of course it's "working" for them as they have no competition. They can pretty much screw up as much as they want and people will still buy. But as I said in my post, if/when they have competition this will hurt them. After all, how many MX res holders would have bought a different vehicle that offered similar specs that wasn't delayed 2+ years? People think, "oh they're so far ahead of everyone and the SC network is such a barrier to entry for anyone else" blah blah blah. All the former great companies thought the same thing. I like my Teslas. I want them to survive. But to do so they have to actually learn from their mistakes.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

You deleted my last sentence. Of course it's "working" for them as they have no competition. They can pretty much screw up as much as they want and people will still buy. But as I said in my post, if/when they have competition this will hurt them. After all, how many MX res holders would have bought a different vehicle that offered similar specs that wasn't delayed 2+ years? People think, "oh they're so far ahead of everyone and the SC network is such a barrier to entry for anyone else" blah blah blah. All the former great companies thought the same thing. I like my Teslas. I want them to survive. But to do so they have to actually learn from their mistakes.

I think that would be entirely dependent on what they actually offered, compared to what they promised. I understand what you're saying, but I also believe their delays are because they are actually trying to give people what they promised with the concept...instead of giving them something that faintly resembles it (Foldgate aside).

 

[MrBoylan]

See this is kind of my point. The "founders cars" were hand built, and then also used for test rides. I didn't see a founder drive their car off stage, and the word was that while people got rides, no one besides tesla staff actually drove the vehicles. Who else but "founders" would be willing to go along with this staged event? I'm willing to bet they don't actually even have their vehicles today.

Basically Tesla hand built 6 production candidates and "delivered" them. When the first actual signature cars are released we'll get an actual idea of how far along this car is. Who knows when that will be.

Someone apparently checked the VIN of one of the test ride vehicles, and it ended in 84, so it was not one of the Founders' cars (00001 to 00006). Also, apparently journalists did get some test drive time with the Model X earlier in the day. I saw that mentioned in at least one of the early Model X launch stories. It was a short drive, in a Tesla parking lot, but a drive nonetheless:

Tesla’s Model X is finally here, and I got to drive it | The Verge

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Here is my wish list:

• Reclining/folding second row seats
• Black plastic back on seats was ugly and will get damaged easily - looked cheap
• Range is limited. Needs to be closer to 300 miles
• Panoramic roof needs electrochromatic tinting - from clear to opaque
• 12 VDC outlets in Frunk/Trunk for accessories like coolers
• Grab handles
• Rear view cameras to supplement and eventually replace side mirrors
• Autopilot still needs time to develop - could require hw changes

This list applies mostly to me and probably won't be of concern to many others, especially their initial target group, but are necessary for it to be my "keeper" car.

I like your list. Personally, I'm too excited to wait, and will take the X as is, but I would welcome anything on that list. BTW, I'm guessing the wiring is there for the side mirror cameras - just waiting on legal approval.

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Therefore, I think it's likely that tesla is getting ready now to begin assembly of MX on the conveyor line in step four above.

Having gone for a factory tour on Wednesday morning, I'd agree with this. Pretty sure the guide said that the Model X parts were all being made in the stamper, and I believe were welded by the welding robots. There was a model X out on the factory floor and workers were being trained on its various details but I personally only saw Model S cars on that conveyer system.

-CB

 

[brianman]

I have to admit the optimist in me expected the first car to roll on stage behind Elon would be driverless.

Your expectations need to be recalibrated, IMO. You're at least 3 years off from reality.

 

[goneskiian]

I was on the tour with MrBoylan and will back him up that the only X's we saw were a practice vehicle for the workers and a couple of skeletons with no panels or incomplete panels. Check that, there was also a couple X's in a cube up front where we started and ended tour. One of which had handles attached to every panel and a metal panel for the large front windshield. Couldn't really figure out what that was for. Should have asked! D'oh! Was too in awe of trying to see as much as I could.

The second body line looked to be pretty quiet too. Body line 1 and the final assembly line was positively humming with a steady stream S's though.

Of course, it's a pretty massive factory and there was quite alot going on that I was trying to take in and I could very likely have missed something.

 

[omarsultan]

Like AO said, this is EXACTLY what they did w/ Model S. Hand-built Founders cars were delivered to make a "customer-shipped" deadline and then a multi-month wait until Sig cars were delivered. Same old Tesla. They have a huge lead on the industry but they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. If/when they have any decent competition this will bite them in the ass.

Can we at least have the multi-month delay before we start complaining about a "hiatus"?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Someone apparently checked the VIN of one of the test ride vehicles, and it ended in 84, so it was not one of the Founders' cars (00001 to 00006). Also, apparently journalists did get some test drive time with the Model X earlier in the day. I saw that mentioned in at least one of the early Model X launch stories. It was a short drive, in a Tesla parking lot, but a drive nonetheless:

Tesla’s Model X is finally here, and I got to drive it | The Verge

Jalopnik got to drive one too:
http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/what-its-like-to-drive-the-tesla-model-x-1733675672

As did Road and Track:
http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/first-drives/news/a26877/tesla-model-x-how-it-drives/

As did Car and Driver:
http://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-x

Just a quick google shows even mainstream outlets like USA today got to drive it. It was a very short and quick spin, but it was definitely a drive and not a ride.

And given people were allowed to use their measuring tape and examine the car pretty thoroughly I don't think Tesla was hiding anything as the OP was suggesting.

 

[Fiver]

And given people were allowed to use their measuring tape and examine the car pretty thoroughly I don't think Tesla was hiding anything as the OP was suggesting.

I don't think they are hiding anything besides almost everything information-wise. I swear Elon's little twitter flood tonight gave us more info about future X plans then the reveal did.

My point is the X isn't ready for mass production because it's not finished. They may have delivered vehicles, but they I bet by car 1,000 we will see a much different X rolling off the line.

 

[Raven]

Deleted.

 

[neroden]

You deleted my last sentence. Of course it's "working" for them as they have no competition. They can pretty much screw up as much as they want and people will still buy. But as I said in my post, if/when they have competition this will hurt them. After all, how many MX res holders would have bought a different vehicle that offered similar specs that wasn't delayed 2+ years? People think, "oh they're so far ahead of everyone and the SC network is such a barrier to entry for anyone else" blah blah blah. All the former great companies thought the same thing. I like my Teslas. I want them to survive. But to do so they have to actually learn from their mistakes.

These aren't even close to their biggest mistakes, either. The service end of things is a *huge* weak point. I understand why Musk wanted to run service in-house, but it's not scaling up. He either needs to build ~60 Service Centers in the US alone before 2018, or he needs to put out a manual for independent repair shops to use.