I am only aware of a couple of 'in the $40K range' EVs but it seems those are sort of equivalent to a sub $25K 40mpg getting economy car. So that should be the equivalent comparable.
The insurance quotes I've seen for EVs represent an increase that's basically equal to an entire annual fuel bill on an economy car. The number of multi-thousand dollar non-warrantable repairs on Tesla's in particular is concerning to me.
Like you said, everyone has a different situation, but for me the 'math' part of the EV equation doesn't work out at current prices. However just like I've ordered the upgraded engine many times before, I WANT an EV.
A few pages up someone compared running costs of their A8, which is a high end unreliable German luxury car. I don't think the Y is comparable in any way feature/ content/ driving dynamics wise to a high end German sedan. From a content perspective I'd be more likely to compare the Y to a well appointed Corolla personally. Yes I know EVs are very nice to drive in a way that ICE can't be. But that's the EV, not the Tesla.
So the point still remains: take your purchase price savings and invest them in a decent fund and compare the numbers in 5 years. The inexpensive, totally reliable, high mpg ICE vehicle will be very hard to beat.
My insurance for our Model 3 is the same per month as our Hyundai Crossover SUV, so our insurance didn't go up at all, so its a fallacy to declare automatically that insurance would eat up your gas savings.
Also, there is zero routine maintenance on the car, which if you factor in how much less often you'll get brakes updates, various belts, oil changes, etc, maintenance is way less. 15 months into ownership, my only maintenance expense is for windshield washer fluid.
Having owned a Corolla way back in the day, the car is not a Corolla in any regard, whether from performance, looks, etc. You making that comparison makes it feel as if you aren't really making good faith comparisons. Not sure what crossover you'd put as the comparison point for a Model Y, but most are in the $40K's right now, and none of them are getting 35mpg. Also, if you'd invested the $20K gap in the market this year.....well you'd now have $16K, and a way less fun and enjoyable car, and you'd still have to go to the gas station all the time, and get your oil changes too.
I'll stick with my EV, and the $20/mth i'm paying on my electric bill for 1,500 miles a month of driving instead of $180/mth that would cost to fuel up on gas at current prices.