Charging from two connectors on opposite sides of the car at the same time is a very inelegant solution. And there's no cabling or charge port on that side, anyway.
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June 20th Speculation
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Charging from two connectors on opposite sides of the car at the same time is a very inelegant solution. And there's no cabling or charge port on that side, anyway.
You need to ask yourself a single really important question and answer it honestly: How many SC stations could one build with money spent on a singe swapping station?
Every swapping station built means there are LESS superchargers out there.
Of course if you happen to live near a SS (swapping station) you rejoice, but what if you do not? And also no SC near you or near your trip?
Why would you buy Model S knowing you could not take advantage of all its features? Many would but some others would rather spent less on some other car/EV.
Money spent on a single SS could be much better spent on building a few more SC and thus enabling more people to fast-charge and generate more sales.
There are Tesla customers outside USA that should also have access to SC features.
But then again - Model S is already capable of swapping. How to take advantage of this yet unused feature not throwing away money?
Answer: Battery rental at Service Centers.
They store your battery until you return or they ship it to some other service center that might be closer to your home location where you do a "return swap".
60 kWh pack weighs close enough to 85 kWh so that MS60 owners could maybe event rent a 85 kWh battery (or maybe not).
Service centers are and will be rare enough for such rental scheme not to eat into MS85 sales too much.
It makes even MS60 a better vehicle ... some may now see it as not worth it for the price and range. They might cough out the money if there was option for longer range without charging.
IMHO such scheme is optimal use of Tesla resources.
Every swapping station built means there are LESS superchargers out there.
Of course if you happen to live near a SS (swapping station) you rejoice, but what if you do not? And also no SC near you or near your trip?
Why would you buy Model S knowing you could not take advantage of all its features? Many would but some others would rather spent less on some other car/EV.
Money spent on a single SS could be much better spent on building a few more SC and thus enabling more people to fast-charge and generate more sales.
There are Tesla customers outside USA that should also have access to SC features.
But then again - Model S is already capable of swapping. How to take advantage of this yet unused feature not throwing away money?
Answer: Battery rental at Service Centers.
They store your battery until you return or they ship it to some other service center that might be closer to your home location where you do a "return swap".
60 kWh pack weighs close enough to 85 kWh so that MS60 owners could maybe event rent a 85 kWh battery (or maybe not).
Service centers are and will be rare enough for such rental scheme not to eat into MS85 sales too much.
It makes even MS60 a better vehicle ... some may now see it as not worth it for the price and range. They might cough out the money if there was option for longer range without charging.
IMHO such scheme is optimal use of Tesla resources.
Hmmm...maybe it's two miniature wind turbines that you can strap to your head and position "right under your nose" which generates energy from the wind as you exhale through your nostrils, which will then charge the battery inductively...
Updated:
Further supporting my theory is the file name - "battswap" isn't referring to a battery swap, it's an acronym Big Announcement To Transmit Self-generated Wind As Power. Actually pretty obvious when you take a step back and look at the big picture.
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Battery swapping is probably an interim, short-term approach, and may have more to do with marketing than any serious strategic plan to build swapping stations. From Elon's recent comments he sees it as an another supplementary option to fast charging. The recent announced improvements in the battery warranties obviously support experiments in swapping approaches.
I think that on June 20th we will see an essentially manual batterying swapping operation managed by Tesla technicians at certain strategically located Service Centers. They will be assisted by a relatively inexpensive a jig/lift that will hold the battery in place while the 30 or so bolts are simultaneously untorqued and captured. The process is then reversed with the help of the jig/lift. Perhaps Tesla will make things a little more interesting by supplying say 100-120kWh battery packs for rent.
I seriously doubt that Tesla will announce plans to begin construction of automated battery swapping facilities across the county in the forseeable future, but this much less expensive manual approach could be offered at select service centers.
During the demonstration there's also a good chance that Tesla will demonstrate the new, faster Supercharger technology, and discuss how the two fast recharging approaches supplement one another.
Larry
I think that on June 20th we will see an essentially manual batterying swapping operation managed by Tesla technicians at certain strategically located Service Centers. They will be assisted by a relatively inexpensive a jig/lift that will hold the battery in place while the 30 or so bolts are simultaneously untorqued and captured. The process is then reversed with the help of the jig/lift. Perhaps Tesla will make things a little more interesting by supplying say 100-120kWh battery packs for rent.
I seriously doubt that Tesla will announce plans to begin construction of automated battery swapping facilities across the county in the forseeable future, but this much less expensive manual approach could be offered at select service centers.
During the demonstration there's also a good chance that Tesla will demonstrate the new, faster Supercharger technology, and discuss how the two fast recharging approaches supplement one another.
Larry
deonb
Active Member
Heck no.
If I could have bought a 60 and know that anytime I want to go on a road trip, I just swing by a service station for $20 or $30 per day and get a 85? No way I would have bought an 85 upfront. And if I weren't already convinced on the 85, I wouldn't have upscaled to the P85.
That's $40k in lost revenue ($10k income) for Tesla right there.
PS: A model that relies on service centers being rare in order to inspire people not to use the service centers is fundamentally broken.
NuclearPowered
Member
I would put my money on this. Certain packs of higher capacity available for rent that will be swapped for long road trips. Where's that '500 mile' battery comment?
If such a pack is available, shouldn't it be for sale, too? I'm sure there are people who will want this, maybe $10-15k + your old battery. But if it changes the weight significantly, they'd have to redo the crash tests and all that.
I think that mentality is likely why we're seeing a plurality of negativity on a 'owners' forum towards Battery Swapping. There would have been a LOT more 40kwh sales if Battery Swapping was announced a year ago (and could also be why it was canceled leading up to this announcement).
While I think that mentality is understandable; it should not come as too much of a surprise - it's evolving technology and EM has stated this roadmap from the beginning, 'Early adopters' are going to lead (or pay) for the evolution of it's line-up (trickle-down).
The early adopter buyers will be exhausted soon. So I expect they may announce a new pricing/leasing model with the battery swap option.
However, there could be a few surprises in the announcement; I expect Tesla may make some gesture for current owners and for those who opted for the SC option.
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Swapping in a much larger pack would increase weight, changing the dynamics of the car and electrical characteristics; could be a be safety issue. I'm doubting it.
I expect they'll stock 60k/85k packs, and release a pack reference design spec for other makers who want to partner. They could store higher density packs with newer model releases, though the model/pack would need to match 'as purchased'.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That would sort of invalidate the last Supercharger announcement and I doubt they would roll out another speed increase so soon after the last.
Edit: Unless you mean they demo the previously announce speed increase.
Just to add another possibility:
The announcement is that an inductive charging coil is already built into the battery pack (just above the bottom aluminum skin) "under the nose" of the Model S.
When you pull into the stall to SuperCharge, at the same time an inductive coil in/on the ground will add an additional 10 to 20 kW of inductive charging to the battery via the internal AC chargers (single or dual) already in the car. Why should those chargers be idle during a DC charge session?
Bonus points if the coil in the ground will fry any ICE vehicle that attempts to park in the SuperCharger spot!
The announcement is that an inductive charging coil is already built into the battery pack (just above the bottom aluminum skin) "under the nose" of the Model S.
When you pull into the stall to SuperCharge, at the same time an inductive coil in/on the ground will add an additional 10 to 20 kW of inductive charging to the battery via the internal AC chargers (single or dual) already in the car. Why should those chargers be idle during a DC charge session?
Bonus points if the coil in the ground will fry any ICE vehicle that attempts to park in the SuperCharger spot!
Maybe there is a machine that can unscrew your battery in less than a minute, and then a 1 MW charger pops out that connects directly to the battery (thereby bypassing the car's cables that are limited to 120 KW); that woudl recharge half the battery in 2 minutes or virtually whole battery in 4 minutes. Then the machine puts that battery back to the car.
This way you could recharge the entire battery in about 5 minutes.
This way you could recharge the entire battery in about 5 minutes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Inductive charging has lower efficiency than direct plug charging, so would require even higher power levels to achieve the same charge rate.
Lot of people posted the Betterplace comparison and said Batteryswapping would be a horrible Idea mainly because Betterplace went broke with that Idea.
While I see the challenges with a Battery swapping infrastructure, I find the comparison to Betterplace sounds like the anti-Tesla gibberish from the Bears, that compare Coda, Fisker, Volt sales, Leaf Sales, etc. to Tesla.
So if Tesla can solve the problems that Betterplace did and do it much better it could be a good solution.
E.g. If Tesla is partnering their swapping infrastructure with Daimler and other manufacturers (Elon: "Join us or copy us"), that would make it totally feasible and would put Tesla in an incredible strong position.
I'm really starting to see the picture, also the reason why they delayed the introduction of the swapping technology so long, so they could get more people to buy the 85kw version.
Maybe the figure out an easy, inexpensive and space saving way to deploy the swapping stations.
Two regular Parking space would be enough, the first on would have container like box with the batteries in it and the robotic change mechanism and the second one would have a flatbed like 10inch above the ground, the driver would have to drive on that "flatbed" to get the battery exchanged. That way the Swapping station could be placed nearly anywhere and require no additional space and no construction work, think of it as a portable but full automatic swapping station. That would drive the cost down by a big factor.
Such a Container could store up to 40 Batteries for real high traffic spots in the future.
Hmm maybe I should have patented it, but whatever
here it is my Paintskills
While I see the challenges with a Battery swapping infrastructure, I find the comparison to Betterplace sounds like the anti-Tesla gibberish from the Bears, that compare Coda, Fisker, Volt sales, Leaf Sales, etc. to Tesla.
So if Tesla can solve the problems that Betterplace did and do it much better it could be a good solution.
E.g. If Tesla is partnering their swapping infrastructure with Daimler and other manufacturers (Elon: "Join us or copy us"), that would make it totally feasible and would put Tesla in an incredible strong position.
I'm really starting to see the picture, also the reason why they delayed the introduction of the swapping technology so long, so they could get more people to buy the 85kw version.
Maybe the figure out an easy, inexpensive and space saving way to deploy the swapping stations.
Two regular Parking space would be enough, the first on would have container like box with the batteries in it and the robotic change mechanism and the second one would have a flatbed like 10inch above the ground, the driver would have to drive on that "flatbed" to get the battery exchanged. That way the Swapping station could be placed nearly anywhere and require no additional space and no construction work, think of it as a portable but full automatic swapping station. That would drive the cost down by a big factor.
Such a Container could store up to 40 Batteries for real high traffic spots in the future.
Hmm maybe I should have patented it, but whatever
here it is my Paintskills
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Great, so assume substantial risk and have no opportunity to profit from it?
The service thing makes sense - EV's have a fraction of the possibly issues an ICE car have. It isn't much of a risk making that statement as the cars won't breakdown. However, creating these extra batteries ( expensive ), creating the ability to do it ( expensive ) and actually installing it ( expensive) and not make a profit from it isn't good.
From an investors standpoint, as this is stated, I say nay.
I wasn't expressing a PRO or CON opinion, just observing that the economics are different w/r/t to the comparison with A Better Place.
That said, (to my knowledge) the plan for Superchargers is not to run them "for profit" but rather "for customer value". I don't see how swapping would be different, or why this would be a bad thing.
Having said that, I share some of your concerns about investment choices and risk w/r/t the concept. But that doesn't mean attempting objective evaluation of the economics, practicality, etc. is a bad idea; nor does it imply support of the idea. So chill.
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