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June 20th Speculation
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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If it is a battery swap demo, I would think to demonstrate that it's faster than a gas fill-up Tesla would want to demonstrate removing the pack in about 2 minutes in installing the new pack in about 2 minutes, with a stated goal of 5 minutes, but an actual target time of 4 minutes. I'm just speculating on how quickly they might be able to achieve the total swap-out since this is the speculation thread!
Citizen-T
Active Member
For those of you who don't understand what the user case for battery swapping is, how it compliments the Supercharger network (as opposed to competing with it), and think it is too expensive, these are all things that we are working on in this thread. It has been quiet for some time, but I plan to update it very soon adding in all the recent news and making my final prediction for what the final solution will look like.
If you have ideas for how to solve some of the problems raised, please join the discussion there. If you want to rant about how you are going to short the stock because "Better Place"...stay here. =)
It was either at All Things D, the SC Conf Call, or on CNBC. All happened within a fews days of each other. Why does it matter when he said it?
Something convinced me last week of battery swap (it sealed the deal) and wanted to share that but first needed the exact place where Elon referred to the fifth announcement as a card in his vest because its related.
All things D is where he leaked the Supercharger. I think you are recalling the Shareholder meeting.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
For those still skeptic about the whole swapping viability, if I just look at myself as a customer, I'd love to swap my 60kWh pack for an 85kWh pack at a nearby service station before going on a long road trip. It would mean I can skip some of the Supercharger stations and get to my destination faster. Glad to pay a rental fee for this service.
If I had a 40kWh pack, the benefit would be even greater since I won't even be able to do road trips with that pack.
Now, assume for a moment that 40kWh pack will become available with GenIII and by that time, there may be a 120kWh pack option. This means low entry price for the GenIII, being able to make long road trips for a small fee, skipping perhaps two or three SC stations, and not overburden the SC network.
If I had a 40kWh pack, the benefit would be even greater since I won't even be able to do road trips with that pack.
Now, assume for a moment that 40kWh pack will become available with GenIII and by that time, there may be a 120kWh pack option. This means low entry price for the GenIII, being able to make long road trips for a small fee, skipping perhaps two or three SC stations, and not overburden the SC network.
I don't see any way that 60/85 kWh battery swapping could be part of the near-term plan for the current Model S. There are too many obstacles: technical, tactical, and financial. (Please don't ask for an explanation if you don't understand why.)
We already know TM is working on batteries with more range/capacity but I wouldn't categorize that as swapping. I think battery evolution is better described as an upgrade.
Faster charging is almost certainly coming soon. The announcement on June 20 could simply walk the press through a full explanation/demonstration while Elon speaks.
As an aside, has anyone noticed that the driver-side charge port opens when signaled from the passenger side of the car? I suspect the passenger side "port" also opens, or could after a minor hardware upgrade.
We'll need to wait until June 20 to be sure.
We already know TM is working on batteries with more range/capacity but I wouldn't categorize that as swapping. I think battery evolution is better described as an upgrade.
Faster charging is almost certainly coming soon. The announcement on June 20 could simply walk the press through a full explanation/demonstration while Elon speaks.
As an aside, has anyone noticed that the driver-side charge port opens when signaled from the passenger side of the car? I suspect the passenger side "port" also opens, or could after a minor hardware upgrade.
We'll need to wait until June 20 to be sure.
It's not about that, though. From an investors standpoint the question is how is this profitable at all right now and how much risk for how much payment is being taken on here?
Yeah, swapping sounds awesome. But there's a lot of details in it and it adds considerable risk for what I feel is minimal reward to a stock that is in a bear pattern but holding on and hopefully up soon.
deonb
Active Member
I can see that, but what's in it for us 85s? More to the point - how does this NOT undermine 85 sales?
I don't know - i have a 60, and i've taken road trips with it using the supercharger at delaware. Obviously right now i'm pretty limited in where i can go using that, but with the supercharger rollout plan, i see very little need/desire to swap my pack out to an 85 for a roadtrip. The network is being designed to be useful to a 60 (or a Gen 3 car with 200 miles of range...).
The big problem with the swap idea in my head is that while this might be neat/interesting/useful now, in a year or so when the supercharger network is built out, it becomes obsolete. Really hard to understand why Tesla would invest serious $$ in it from an investor perspective.
Of course, maybe my imagination just isn't good enough - i guess we'll see in a weekish.
The big problem with the swap idea in my head is that while this might be neat/interesting/useful now, in a year or so when the supercharger network is built out, it becomes obsolete. Really hard to understand why Tesla would invest serious $$ in it from an investor perspective.
Of course, maybe my imagination just isn't good enough - i guess we'll see in a weekish.
ModelS8794
Member
Why does this keep getting suggested? It doesn't open, and what reason could there be for having a second port, there, anyway?
Actually that question from the 2012 shareholder meeting (not 2013) sealed the deal for me. You can view the video (which is more convincing) here: 2012 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors, 41:50 mark. I watched it last week and my jaw dropped... my wife and I looked at each other saying, "That's the upcoming June 20th 5th announcement!"
This is my transcript:
Q: I think last year you mentioned how there was a swap-out of the battery with the Model S and that could be done, I've been telling people, in under a minute potentially. So could comment about that and whether that looks like something that still has potential and when that might happen?
A: (Elon) In terms of the Model S, I intentionally architected the Model S to have a battery pack in the floor pan that can be swapped out in under a minute. I think we're going to show something interesting in that regard. (Elon smiles, audience chuckles.) I've got to keep a few cards in the vest. But I think there will be something exciting to see in that regard.
Basically Elon Musk is hinting that they've been working on battery swap and will show something soon (this was about 12 months ago). This has got to be the June 20th upcoming announcement/demo.
Also, what convinced me more was Elon Musk recently (in past month but I can't recall which interview/call) was asked to divulge more details about the 5th announcement and Elon Musk replied saying that he can't share the details about the 5th announcement because he needs to keep a couple "cards in his vest". This is the same language as the June 2012 shareholder meeting answer he gave.
Add to this the filename with battswap and I think it's a done deal. We're going to be seeing main battery swap in about a minute on June 20th.
The questions left are:
1. To what extent are they going to roll it out (at all Superchargers eventually? just service centers? mobile? etc?)
2. How are they going to solve the problem of people receiving an inferior pack compared to their original one?
3. How are they going to work out the economics (business model) to make this financially viable for Tesla and attractive to owners?
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ModelS8794
Member
Hahaha, no, June 6th, but 2012! I didn't realize I had pulled the 2012 transcript. Doh. Better lucky than smart I guess.
There is no way possible battery swaps will be free. It is going to cost either labor or expensive robots to do the process. That is if they do it only in the service centers.
If they are actually building battery swap stations, then they will also have real estate expenses, building expenses, extra employees, etc.
So it is a question of how much extra it will cost and when confronted with the cost will anyone bother to pay for it versus a free Supercharger that can fill your battery in 20-40 minutes.
If the Tesla battery swap station is anything like that designed by Better Place, this will be crazy expensive for each location.
I can't seem to find the question attributed to "Doug McKenzie" in the shareholder recording at ir.teslamotors.com or on YouTube. Any ideas?
Tesla Motors, Inc. 2013 annual shareholder meeting - YouTube
Updated:
Ah, ok I see the follow-up posts now. No wonder it wasn't in my rough transcript. Thought I blacked out during watching the original video or something.
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http://ir.teslamotors.com/releases.cfm?Year=2012
Tesla Motors, Inc. 2013 annual shareholder meeting - YouTube
Updated:
Ah, ok I see the follow-up posts now. No wonder it wasn't in my rough transcript. Thought I blacked out during watching the original video or something.
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Odd that it's not listed here:
http://ir.teslamotors.com/releases.cfm?Year=2012
Not to kick the beehive about the double chargeport issue, but could this be the "right under your nose" portion of the announcements as well?? I mean, it would have been present in our vehicles in the start and no one knew, hence under your nose in the figurative sense -- also, the second chargeport would be "under your nose" as you are standing on the right-hand side of the car
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