June 20th Speculation

[surfside]

Lets be clear. Its 5 minutes vs. 1 hr to recharge your battery. If I'm driving an ICE I'm not going to make a pitstop until the needle points to E, why should it be any different with a Tesla? If I'm driving anywhere, I don't want to stop every 2 hours for a 20 minute stop. Thats a ~20% increase in my travel time, even after babying the battery. I want to drive my Model S like my ICE, 80+ mph for several hours, stop for 5-10 minutes to fill it up/ go to the bathroom, and go back to driving.

this +1,000. non-early adopters don't want deal with making concessions on how they drive or take road trips because they bought an electric car -- they want to drive as they always have and have their electric car mirror their years of experience with ICEs. people are very used to paying for gas for road trips; paying the electric equivalent for "gas" through a battery swap is going to be an obvious requirement to most people (putting aside the fact that it will likely be a lot cheaper than paying for gas).

elon has said that he is a fan of optionality; for those road warriors that are trying to get somewhere quickly (and don't want to wait at least 45 minutes to fully recharge their battery), the superswapper is going to be a great option. for those that have time (or are going to be stopping for a meal), the free superchargers are an even better option.

surfside

 

[kenliles]

Lets be clear. Its 5 minutes vs. 1 hr to recharge your battery. If I'm driving an ICE I'm not going to make a pitstop until the needle points to E, why should it be any different with a Tesla? If I'm driving anywhere, I don't want to stop every 2 hours for a 20 minute stop. Thats a ~20% increase in my travel time, even after babying the battery. I want to drive my Model S like my ICE, 80+ mph for several hours, stop for 5-10 minutes to fill it up/ go to the bathroom, and go back to driving.

All this arguing about how battery swapping is plain dumb. This is an amazing car, extremely fast, quite, and comfortable. I don't want to spend 20% of my travel time on road trips outside of the car, I spent over a $100K on it, I want to sit in it, and just drive! Battery swapping is amazing, extremely awesome if its free, but even if it costs as much as a tank of gas ($50-$60) per use, I would totally use it.
Last time I took my Model S from my house to my college, it took me 7 1/2 hours because of terrible charging infrastructure! I didn't take the car on the trip again because I can make the same trip in ~3.5 hours (250 miles @ 70 mph avg.). If this infrastructure was put into place in, say Scranton or Binghimton, I could drive my model S like my ICE.

I love driving, so it feels like being shackled when I have to keep on stopping to charge my car, and even though its the only drawback, its a huge deal. People on this fourms don't understand how much of a pain charging is because they are EV friendly. I couldn't care less if Tesla was an EV car or an ICE car, I bought it because its FAST, and QUITE, not because in some delusional sense I think I'm helping the environment or because I think a $60/tank is expensive. If I spend a $100K on a car, I don't mind paying $60 for a refill.

From your perspective then, I can see why you would support it and I'm sure there are many in your same genre of travel.

I'm in the opposite - when I drive in town I might want to be in the car driving.
When I take a long trip, I don't want to be in the car driving no matter how amazing- after 3-4 hours of driving I'm sick of it and need a break, so my ICE driving matches my EV road trip driving with charging stops - In my case, I DON'T like driving- It's being in any car in the first place that makes me feel shackled. If I had my way I'd want to spend 80% of my long distance travel time OUTSIDE the car, so 20% seems like slow torture to me - For every 5 hours, I enjoy the hour OUT no matter what fun-mobile I'm driving at 60mph; Further for nearly all trips beyond a 5 hour drive, I'm flying.

So I get the value for you and yours and I get it not for me and mine. Sounds like we'll both get our way with a choice- I can see a battery lease arrangement fitting into this as others have described - but if I buy the battery with the car- my view is that I bought the battery and I wouldn't swap it with someone else's anymore than I would swap the car itself.

 

[ShortSlaver]

If you're driving a long, long distance and determine that battery swapping is the only tech for you because time is critical, might be you consider flying?

Who drives really far distances often? I think the last time I did is when I moved, I drove halfway across the country. But I never consider driving anywhere that is more than a couple hundred miles away now. IF you're driving far, why would battery swapping matter over charging?

 

[hershey101]

If you're driving a long, long distance and determine that battery swapping is the only tech for you because time is critical, might be you consider flying?

Who drives really far distances often? I think the last time I did is when I moved, I drove halfway across the country. But I never consider driving anywhere that is more than a couple hundred miles away now. IF you're driving far, why would battery swapping matter over charging?

I go to Cornell, its ~250 miles from my house. Although technically well within the "rated range" of the battery, my car seldom gives me that. I hate having to drive through NY, NJ, PA at <60 mph when the car and roads begs to be driven at >75 mph.. If I wanted to drive <60 mph I could have bought any crappy old car for a third of the price.
I like driving, I want to take a trip from NY down to Virgina, or FL, or even CA just for fun. A few years ago I drove from NYC to Chicago non-stop in ~10 hrs. To think that trip today would require 2 days in my Model S is crazy.

If I want to take a break from driving, sure the super charger is a good option because it usually takes me 45 minutes to go to the bathroom, eat etc. But superchargers have yet to be built out, and if Tesla keeps on selling these cars at the rate of demand, then you might end up waiting an hour at a supercharger location before a spot opens up. I like having the battery swapping option, although I would have preferred the litium air addon concept more, this is still a good option to have, as long as its pay-per-use and not some weird 8 year subscription plan or something like that that people have been mentioning.

 

[Palpatine]

Who drives really far distances often?

98% of all trips are less than 50 miles.
99% of all trips are less than 70 miles.
The number of trips over 200 miles? 0.1%

(source: the internet.... so it must be true)

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If I want to take a break from driving, sure the super charger is a good option because it usually takes me 45 minutes to go to the bathroom, eat etc. But superchargers have yet to be built out, and if Tesla keeps on selling these cars at the rate of demand, then you might end up waiting an hour at a supercharger location before a spot opens up. I like having the battery swapping option, although I would have preferred the litium air addon concept more, this is still a good option to have, as long as its pay-per-use and not some weird 8 year subscription plan or something like that that people have been mentioning.

I think that will be a common attitude. Most people hate the 2 year contract with their cell phone provider. So I don't particularly find a 8 year battery subscription to be realistic. The implications for resale liabilities make that problematic. Did I just kill the potential resale if the used car buyer is unwilling to accept the ongoing liability? Do I have to buyout the 8 year battery contract to end it early so I can sell my car?

So on a per use fee basis, how on earth does Tesla make this function for someone who is doing a one way trip?
Or a trip where they might be coming back via a different route and unable to pickup their original battery?

These are just pesky questions that cannot be waved away with the expectation that Elon will deliver a magical pink unicorn.These are real world assets and logistical issues that have no easy solution with a battery swap strategy.

 

[bollar]

If you're driving a long, long distance and determine that battery swapping is the only tech for you because time is critical, might be you consider flying?

Who drives really far distances often? I think the last time I did is when I moved, I drove halfway across the country. But I never consider driving anywhere that is more than a couple hundred miles away now. IF you're driving far, why would battery swapping matter over charging?

I would suggest that for many people, the equation of time vs. money is one of limited resources. Look at the cars parked at Disney World on any given day and you'll find thousands of cars with license plates from the Northeast and other far away places -- it's a group of people that have enough money to go on vacation, but not enough to fly the family down to Florida. They're more than willing to take a big, once-a-year, vacation, but have to work within their budget. More often than not, this means piling the family into the minivan for the 18 hour trek and this means making those stops very efficient, perhaps with a long stop every 5-6 hours. The cumulative expended time of charging 20-40 minutes every 200 miles cuts into a short vacation and means they're spending time in a place other than where they want to be.

Presumably the current crop of MS owners are fairly wealthy, but I think we'll find that later generations of S, X and G3 owners will be much less of the "jet set" mentality.

 

[DaveT]

I go to Cornell, its ~250 miles from my house. Although technically well within the "rated range" of the battery, my car seldom gives me that. I hate having to drive through NY, NJ, PA at <60 mph when the car and roads begs to be driven at >75 mph.. If I wanted to drive <60 mph I could have bought any crappy old car for a third of the price.
I like driving, I want to take a trip from NY down to Virgina, or FL, or even CA just for fun. A few years ago I drove from NYC to Chicago non-stop in ~10 hrs. To think that trip today would require 2 days in my Model S is crazy.

If I want to take a break from driving, sure the super charger is a good option because it usually takes me 45 minutes to go to the bathroom, eat etc. But superchargers have yet to be built out, and if Tesla keeps on selling these cars at the rate of demand, then you might end up waiting an hour at a supercharger location before a spot opens up. I like having the battery swapping option, although I would have preferred the litium air addon concept more, this is still a good option to have, as long as its pay-per-use and not some weird 8 year subscription plan or something like that that people have been mentioning.

Exactly, with Superchargers as it stands you don't have the option of doing 10hr nonstop drive from NYC to Chicago even if you wanted. But battery swap makes that a possibility (w/minimal quick stops like filling up a gas tank).

For most EV early adopters, they have no problem doing a 20 minute Supercharger stop every 2-3 hours. But for the mass public, to be required to do so could be a big inconvenience.

For example, a lot of people might drive from San Diego to Los Angeles, spend a few hours in a meeting, do a couple errands and drive back. If you are required to stop at Supercharger station for 20 minutes on your way back just to make it home, that can be a huge inconvenience for some people. But if they just need to do a quick 1 minute battery swap on the way home (that's faster than filling a gas tank), then they probably won't mind.

Of course, it'll come down to the economics and how compelling Tesla makes it, which will be a big part of tomorrow's announcement.

 

[deonb]

Who drives really far distances often? I think the last time I did is when I moved, I drove halfway across the country. But I never consider driving anywhere that is more than a couple hundred miles away now. IF you're driving far, why would battery swapping matter over charging?

I despise flying (especially with U.S. domestic airlines). I'm already driving anywhere up to 3000 miles (round trip) - haven't flown a shorter distance than that in 15 years. It's also much better environmentally, even in a Hybrid - never mind an EV.

Once we have self-driving vehicles, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't fly anywhere in the U.S. again. (Well, apart from to Hawaii).

 

[ShortSlaver]

I guess if you're interested in long haul driving, an EV might not be the car for you right now. Who knows, maybe there will be demand for swapping but how people drive statistically, charging makes a whole lot more sense.

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I despise flying (especially with U.S. domestic airlines). I'm already driving anywhere up to 3000 miles (round trip) - haven't flown a shorter distance than that in 15 years. It's also much better environmentally, even in a Hybrid - never mind an EV.

Once we have self-driving vehicles, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't fly anywhere in the U.S. again. (Well, apart from to Hawaii).

Yeah it can get crummy at times. But I'm someone who has to fly often and usually with very short notice. I can't get from NYC to SF in a day so flying is the only option. Plus, it's quite fast. And if you do it right by getting the airlines credit card and points, etc, you usually end up in first class anyhow.

The main problem with flying is that airlines compete on price as internet bookings are often the cheapest. However, if you spend a bit more you get a far better class of service, even in economy. Look at Virgin for instance. Often it costs more to fly the. But the experience is 100x better. It's what you make of it. There's plenty of good domestic service.

 

[deonb]

Yeah it can get crummy at times. But I'm someone who has to fly often and usually with very short notice. I can't get from NYC to SF in a day so flying is the only option. Plus, it's quite fast. And if you do it right by getting the airlines credit card and points, etc, you usually end up in first class anyhow.

The main problem with flying is that airlines compete on price as internet bookings are often the cheapest. However, if you spend a bit more you get a far better class of service, even in economy. Look at Virgin for instance. Often it costs more to fly the. But the experience is 100x better. It's what you make of it. There's plenty of good domestic service.

I don't know about that. The best domestic first class I've seen is still a joke. It's like business class on an airline like Saudia or Emirates (actually it's probably closer to 'economy' on Emirates), never mind compared to the far east airlines.

If the U.S. actually had a real first class I would consider using it.


I hope Elon has a better service for the HyperLoop in mind. It either needs to have a fast embark/disembark experience (I don't mind taking subways - it's so quick that it doesn't matter that there are no luxuries), or it needs to have a much better service model than airports and airlines are currently providing.

 

[Palpatine]

I wonder at what price point people would think Swaps make sense compared to just using a Supercharger.

We already know that the Supercharger access price is about $2,000 per car for the life of the car.

So let's say someone already has a 85 kwh battery pack and Supercharger access. How much would you be willing to pay for also having battery swap also as another solution? I think most of us can agree that the physical and logistical infrastructure of a swap station is going to cost more than Superchargers. Let's say it is roughly twice as expensive.

Would you pay Tesla Motors $4,000 up front to buy the battery swap option? Let's say it was paired with the $12,000 replacement battery pack as part of it.

For $16,000 extra, you could get unlimited battery swaps for 8 years. Since you paid the $12,000 to add a swap battery to the "swap network" you get to swap around for 8 years for an extra $4,000 on top of that.

Would you buy the $12,000 replacement battery, contribute it to the community swap network, then pay for the $4,000 fee to swap around sharing battery packs? With $16,000 to play with and enough people signing on, then maybe the financials would make sense. It really just depends on whether or not there are enough people willing to pay $16,000 (roughly) to be in that network.

Are there enough people who would buy the $12,000 replacement and also pay $4,000 upfront for the swap fees?

Or would that be the type of amount where you would take a pass and just use the Supercharger that you already have paid for?

 

[Stoneymonster]

Are there enough people who would buy the $12,000 replacement and also pay $4,000 upfront for the swap fees?

Or would that be the type of amount where you would take a pass and just use the Supercharger that you already have paid for?

I can't see paying $12000 to offset maybe 3-8 hours of inconvenience per year. For myself that's what it would work out to since I take maybe 2-3 long trips that would require 1 or 2 supercharger stops. That's crazy and I do not expect this to be the deal.

 

[Palpatine]

I can't see paying $12000 to offset maybe 3-8 hours of inconvenience per year. For myself that's what it would work out to since I take maybe 2-3 long trips that would require 1 or 2 supercharger stops. That's crazy and I do not expect this to be the deal.

I see two major costs with battery swapping. Swap stations and battery inventory/depreciation.

$12,000 would only get you the battery part of the swap inventory and your share of the wear and tear on the swap battery network. I think a $4,000 fee (double of the Supercharger fee) would be the likely minimum for a car owners share of just building out the physical plant of the swap network and paying ongoing support/maintenance of the employees, equipment, etc.

So who thinks $16,000 is a reasonable upfront fee for unlimited swap access for 8 years? Too high? Too low? Would you pay it? Would you use Supercharger instead for the occasional long trip?

 

[emupilot]

I think a $4,000 fee (double of the Supercharger fee) would be the likely minimum for just building out the physical plant of the swap network.

It's not just the infrastructure for battery swapping. EM has said that they don't have to pay much rent for the space used by superchargers because they are bringing in customers who will eat at the restaurants etc. while charging. Superswappers will take up space without providing customers, so they will need to pay for use of the land.

 

[Palpatine]

It's not just the infrastructure for battery swapping. EM has said that they don't have to pay much rent for the space used by superchargers because they are bringing in customers who will eat at the restaurants etc. while charging. Superswappers will take up space without providing customers, so they will need to pay for use of the land.

Good point. We don't have the same synergies to convince a restaurant to allow Tesla to tear up a section of the parking lot to allow a battery swap drive thru (picture a car wash size building next to a gas station).

What would be the incentive for the restaurant to allow Tesla free rent (or cheap rent) to do that for a 2 minute battery swap where the driver is highly unlikely to exit the car for a meal also?

So how much does a 1/4 acre of commercial zoned land cost at the typical highway rest area? I have no idea. But it would seem that Tesla will have to ultimately pay that in the form of a land purchase or long term land lease agreement.

 

[NigelM]

So who thinks $16,000 is a reasonable upfront fee for unlimited swap access for 8 years? Too high? Too low?

Not sure I see the point in these hypothetical numbers when Tesla will make an announcement in ~24 hours.

 

[DaveT]

Good point. We don't have the same synergies to convince a restaurant to allow Tesla to tear up a section of the parking lot to allow a battery swap drive thru (picture a car wash size building next to a gas station).

I don't understand why you keep thinking that battery swap will be a car wash size building like Better Place. You make the assumption that it has to be big and cost a lot. Tesla could show us tomorrow something very small and inexpensive. That's the point of technology advancing. Better Place was like 1.0 (big, clunky and expensive). Surely Tesla can release a better 2.0 version that's much more advanced, smaller and cheaper.

 

[DaveT]

$12,000 would only get you the battery part of the swap inventory and your share of the wear and tear on the swap battery network. I think a $4,000 fee (double of the Supercharger fee) would be the likely minimum for a car owners share of just building out the physical plant of the swap network and paying ongoing support/maintenance of the employees, equipment, etc.

So who thinks $16,000 is a reasonable upfront fee for unlimited swap access for 8 years? Too high? Too low? Would you pay it? Would you use Supercharger instead for the occasional long trip?

I think your estimates of costs are way too high. Battery costs in 8 years will drop dramatically (at least by 50% of current costs) and be well below $100/kwh. $12000 for a pack replacement pre-paid right now is way above replacement cost in 8 years. It's plenty of room to absorb some of the battery swap rollout costs.

Think $12000 prepaid now for a new battery in 8 years and unlimited swapping during that time.

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Good point. We don't have the same synergies to convince a restaurant to allow Tesla to tear up a section of the parking lot to allow a battery swap drive thru (picture a car wash size building next to a gas station).

What would be the incentive for the restaurant to allow Tesla free rent (or cheap rent) to do that for a 2 minute battery swap where the driver is highly unlikely to exit the car for a meal also?

So how much does a 1/4 acre of commercial zoned land cost at the typical highway rest area? I have no idea. But it would seem that Tesla will have to ultimately pay that in the form of a land purchase or long term land lease agreement.

1. Land is cheap at a highway rest stop. It's not metropolitan city land. It's far from a city.
2. Tesla's probably already built battery swap into the contract that they've signed with the landlords when they started building Supercharger stations. Meaning, the landlords get Supercharging stations and a battery swap station.
3. Again, don't assume battery swap station has to be huge and expensive. It can be small and they might not need to tear up the parking lot. We don't know until tomorrow night.

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: one post went to snippiness.

 

[johnnydop]

I don't understand why you keep thinking that battery swap will be a car wash size building like Better Place. You make the assumption that it has to be big and cost a lot. Tesla could show us tomorrow something very small and inexpensive. That's the point of technology advancing. Better Place was like 1.0 (big, clunky and expensive). Surely Tesla can release a better 2.0 version that's much more advanced, smaller and cheaper.

Elon has repeatedly said that Better Place got their swap idea from Telsa but couldnt get the technology right. Tesla did and thats why it'll probably very interested how its done and at a "compelling" cost.