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June 20th Speculation

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I don't understand why you keep thinking that battery swap will be a car wash size building like Better Place. You make the assumption that it has to be big and cost a lot. Tesla could show us tomorrow something very small and inexpensive. That's the point of technology advancing. Better Place was like 1.0 (big, clunky and expensive). Surely Tesla can release a better 2.0 version that's much more advanced, smaller and cheaper.

For a one-stall superswapper to have a throughput of 10 swaps per hour, and if it takes an hour to fully charge a depleted pack, that means storage for 10 battery packs, electrical infrastructure for 10 simultaneous superchargers, and a climate controlled enclosure. That footprint is alot bigger than the stall where the swap actually occurs, although perhaps income from grid storage when the swapper is underutilized could help mitigate the cost.
 
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Was at the Hawthorne (LA) supercharger today.. they took down the Tesla tower (previously oblisk).. parked a silver Model S over the water on top of stilts, and have disabled 4 of the superchargers (only 2 were operational).. A small production crew was driving another Model S over a small ramp to make sure "it all goes well." In addition, lots of folks there running ethernet and internet access points throughout the area. Approx 20-30 workers getting the site ready for tomorrow. No large equipment identified. Shutting down the superchargers makes me curious.

Funny thing: the silver Model over the water now has it's charge port open.. I opened it when I clicked on the button on the supercharger.. it opened my charge port and the one on display. Workers there were confused about how it opened, and who would have to go through the water to close it.
 
Was at the Hawthorne (LA) supercharger today.. they took down the Tesla tower (previously oblisk).. parked a silver Model S over the water on top of stilts, and have disabled 4 of the superchargers (only 2 were operational).. A small production crew was driving another Model S over a small ramp to make sure "it all goes well." In addition, lots of folks there running ethernet and internet access points throughout the area. Approx 20-30 workers getting the site ready for tomorrow. No large equipment identified. Shutting down the superchargers makes me curious.

Wow, strange they would remove the Tesla obelisk. Why would they do that?

Looking at the picture you posted (btw, thanks for that!) I had the thought of what if battery swap was like the parting of the Red Sea and the water would separate and a swapping machine would swap the battery and then the water recedes back. Elon could raise his staff to start the demo. :) Sounds completely ridiculous but could you imagine all the YouTube views?
 
Funny thing: the silver Model over the water now has it's charge port open.. I opened it when I clicked on the button on the supercharger.. it opened my charge port and the one on display. Workers there were confused about how it opened, and who would have to go through the water to close it.

No, Elon Musk is going to come out in a robe and walk on the water to close the charge port. That's the demo! :biggrin:
 
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I walked the area... Besides the disassembled superchargers and what I noted, nothing else notable. I took a few pics of the Model X prototype, but that's another story.

D

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Maybe whoever is going to be driving the demo car over the swap equipment was the one practicing to make sure he doesn't drive off the side? I'd hope that practice isn't required for the real swappers, but maybe the demo one is special to show the moving parts?
 
Wow, strange they would remove the Tesla obelisk. Why would they do that?

Are they going to use the obelisk platform for filming? Looks like a good area to mount cameras and get dramatic shots.

On the other hand, is that where battery packs are stored for swapping?

Where was the ramp they were driving up? In the supercharger bays under the canopy? On the side in the area of 2 empty parking spots? Next to the obelisk base?
 
Could be the car is positioned on top of the swapper already, and they will empty the water just before the demo, to show it's mechanics, which will be clearly visible. Maybe they have a high speed pump, Elon will wave his hands up high (think Moses, parting the Red Sea), and the swapper will come into view. Perhaps Elon has finally channeled some Steve Jobs showmanship/dramatic flair :)
 
Elon's interview with Reuters was pretty interesting.

Judging by what he said it sounds like the battery will be swapped out in an insanely quick fashion.

I think a demo of a Model S driving into a SC slot and having its battery swapped out in under 5 minutes with the driver still in the car will be amazing. After the demo if he announces that most of the planned SC stations will roll out with the swapping mechanism installed then it might be a fond farewell for range anxiety and a Falcon 9 ride into the stratospehere for the stock :)
A "complete" demo would show 3 splits:
1. gasoline with a cutout of the gas gauge
2. supercharger with a cutout of the rated range
3. swapper with a cutout of the rated range

They should synchronize the entry time and "stop the clock" when the swapper driver fastens his seatbelt as he prepares to drive away. At this point, there should be a zoom-in of the gauges and ranges of all 3 vehicles.