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June 20th Speculation
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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- TSLA
Announcement will happen in the evening (8:30pm) which makes me believe it'll be a big event (bigger than just a day time media event). Tesla has sent invites to customers (not just media) as well. Sounds like a party. Reminds me of when they announced Model X or when they first announced Superchargers.
This could get interesting.
This could get interesting.
There has got to be more to it than just swapping.
I know China is considering swapping VS stations and it looks like Tesla is hedging both ways. But I just don't see how swapping makes sense right now. There has to be something else attached to this. Its been a dead end for everyone else. Granted, Tesla is unique in the EV world but I don't know how this helps.
I'm ready to be dazzled and enlightened.
I know China is considering swapping VS stations and it looks like Tesla is hedging both ways. But I just don't see how swapping makes sense right now. There has to be something else attached to this. Its been a dead end for everyone else. Granted, Tesla is unique in the EV world but I don't know how this helps.
I'm ready to be dazzled and enlightened.
If they are announcing a network of battery swap stations, expect the stock to tank. That amount of financial risk would be too much.
I plan to cancel my Model S and get my $2,500 back.
If it is just a demo of a technical possibility, but no plans to spend money on this type of network, sort of a "gee whiz" announcement, then so be it. But I don't see why Tesla would make a huge fuss over something that they have no plans to role out extensively.
People can make all of the "oh golly" comments they want. It is a technical possibility. But it would be a financial disaster to actually execute on this as a serious option.
I plan to cancel my Model S and get my $2,500 back.
If it is just a demo of a technical possibility, but no plans to spend money on this type of network, sort of a "gee whiz" announcement, then so be it. But I don't see why Tesla would make a huge fuss over something that they have no plans to role out extensively.
People can make all of the "oh golly" comments they want. It is a technical possibility. But it would be a financial disaster to actually execute on this as a serious option.
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/battswap-hero_732_448.png
look at the filename
so lots of TMC members will short TSLA now I guess
look at the filename
so lots of TMC members will short TSLA now I guess
Thats the thing - there just aren't enough cars on the road that could actually take advantage of this to make it anything near viable. When they're selling 500k a year and have other manufacturers using their standard? Sure. But right now it's just a massive capital risk that has such a small return on investment anytime soon.
There has to be more to it - a partnership or something.
I would disagree with Palpatine. They could make it as simple as saying that the Battery swap capability will be inherent in every service center around the world. Infrastructure cost would be relatively minimal. The purpose of battery swap would be to remove a psychological barrier that people have around long-distance travel and to provide an additional convenience for owners so if they were in a tight spot, they could get a full battery pack extremely quickly.
That should be positive for the company in the long-term. The concern is really around how they will address the issue of swapping an old pack for a new one or vice versa. That will be the key, if they come up with something creative and accessible to owners that takes care of that issue, it could be very interesting for the stock.
That should be positive for the company in the long-term. The concern is really around how they will address the issue of swapping an old pack for a new one or vice versa. That will be the key, if they come up with something creative and accessible to owners that takes care of that issue, it could be very interesting for the stock.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
I hope battery swapping is for GenIII onwards. Model S is fine with SCs. They can demonstrate the tech with the S, but the S density won't justify full coverage of the US, let alone Europe.
This isn't a problem because even if you get a crappy battery (say 220 miles at 90% on an 85), you will get a better one the next time you swap. I'm sure there is a minimum threshold where TM will remove them from circulation and use them as grid storage at Superchargers.
I don't see these being co-located at Superchargers. It would make sense for them to be at the service centers, which are in densely populated areas compared to the Superchargers, and this could be an option for apartment people who have no good charging options. It also opens the door to battery pack upgrades. It would be too redundant with too much infrastructure expense to add them just for road trips.
Tesla's plan is to have grid storage in all Supercharger locations (see Supercharger Announcement 2013/05/30 - Page 22):
Q: Solar, superchargers, grid storage. Which percentage of SCs will have the solar component? Which percentage with have grid storage with that solar?
A: Long-term, all of them. Just a matter of time. In order to expand rapidly, install without them and backfill over time. Solar lag behind SC installation 12-18 months. Grid storage 6-12 months after that.
Also, grid storage is sizable.
Q: How many grid storage so far? How big are they?
A: Two in operation now. Pretty sizeable. Half MWh. Capable of putting out a MW if need be.
Half MW to one MW... probably about about 5-10 85kwh battery packs.
So, battery swap doesn't need to add much more capital because grid storage is being deployed across all Supercharger stations. As long as they use the grid storage for battery swap somehow (ie., use Model S batteries as the grid storage batteries) then additional capital expense should be very minimal. All you would need is a swap robot that could cost less than $50k.
Of course you'd need to solve a host of other problems (battery ownership, theft prevention, etc). But these are solvable problems in my opinion. It would take a lot of creative problem-solving.
Again, Elon and co wouldn't announce battery swap unless it was compelling - both to owners and also financially to the company.
Finally, this is surely the biggest of the 5-part trilogy announcements... based on it being a live night event with customers and media. They don't do these often.
I hope so. Rolling this out now would be a massive waste of their $700 million in the bank. They need all of that money to get the Model X and Gen III to production. They also have a large CAPEX just to do the Supercharger network over the next two years. I honestly would expect a huge negative reaction in the stock on June 21st if this is what it seems from that file name. This had better be something VERY different than Better Place or the stock is likely going to tank June 21st.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Let's just keep telling Elon how to run a company that changes the world. Since we've all done that and he never has.
Sent from my Droid RAZR using Tapatalk 2.
Sent from my Droid RAZR using Tapatalk 2.
jeff_adams
Member
For those that are sure that Tesla will be offering battery swaps at service centers, can you explain the answer that Elon gave to the apartment lady at the shareholder's meeting? She basically asked him how she would charge her car up if she couldn't plug it in at home or work in SF.
How would you reconcile his answer to her with swapping at service centers?
How would you reconcile his answer to her with swapping at service centers?
I have a hard time imagining that Tesla needed that long to come up with a simple battery swap technology like Betterplace, so my hopes are really that Tesla has a very innovative approach to batteryswap, whatever that will be.
Also if its really plain simple batteryswapping, I would interpret that so that Tesla doesn't expect battery price to come down as much as they expected.
GenIII therefore could have some real difficulties to be accepted by the market if the range concern is not addressed.
So GenIII basemodel (30k$) could be 40kw without the technology to supercharge (which would also reduce the price for GenIII nd optional 80kw/120kw pack available anytime for lease with the ability to supercharge.
I hate this scenario and I hope its not the case but maybe Tesla has no other choice.
Second thought:
Maybe Tesla didnt expect the customer to react that bad to the 40kw option and the short range (only 4% of Model S sales was for the 40kw model).
And their initial plan was a 30k$ 40kw GenIII, but since they saw how bad the sales were and how big the range anxiety still is they had to change plans and bring Batteryswap to the market to address that.
Also if its really plain simple batteryswapping, I would interpret that so that Tesla doesn't expect battery price to come down as much as they expected.
GenIII therefore could have some real difficulties to be accepted by the market if the range concern is not addressed.
So GenIII basemodel (30k$) could be 40kw without the technology to supercharge (which would also reduce the price for GenIII nd optional 80kw/120kw pack available anytime for lease with the ability to supercharge.
I hate this scenario and I hope its not the case but maybe Tesla has no other choice.
Second thought:
Maybe Tesla didnt expect the customer to react that bad to the 40kw option and the short range (only 4% of Model S sales was for the 40kw model).
And their initial plan was a 30k$ 40kw GenIII, but since they saw how bad the sales were and how big the range anxiety still is they had to change plans and bring Batteryswap to the market to address that.
I think you're underestimating Elon. You can't compare Tesla with Better Place. Elon is a business mastermind and will only release something that makes economic sense. The Supercharger stations are an example. Secure a place with low/free rent and make it into an income property via solar panels, offer free charging for life, and finance the capex roll-out via a $2000 pre-payment (every 10k cars equals $20m for 60+ Supercharger stations). It's truly ingenious.
Same thing goes for battery swap. I'm counting on an ingenious plan that will make the economics work.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I recall he didn't really make it sound like Tesla had anything planned to help her anytime soon. I thought about that, and I would have thought that he would have given some type of hint there. So yeah, I'm really not sure.
If the business model is that you still own your own battery and just rent access to a "swapper" for the trip, then it makes sense that you wouldn't want to rely on swapping entirely.
I'm personally convinced that they're doing it at the service centers because:
a) They said so in the SEC filing
b) The service centers need a way to swap batteries anyway for servicing - might as well be the fancy machine
The business model is the part I still can't quite figure out - it'll be interesting to see. I wish they held more of these announcement events in the bay area; not like both HQ and the factory are here or anything... ;-)
Who wants to drive potentially all the way across town to the Tesla service center from where they live in their apartment to simply swap out a battery - that's not a solution.
Frankly, I can't fathom a full battery swap in any scenario other than tokenism at this point - I vote for head fake, but I also believe Elon and co. are incredibly smart and will have thoroughly thought this through, so till the 20th I'll wait.
Ignoring the SEC filing:
If they're not in fact messing with the file name, could they plan to have ranger teams from service centers do field battery swaps on totally "empty" Model S's, perhaps using specially-modified flatbeds? That would obviate the need to take the cars somewhere to charge for hours, avoid tying up supercharger bays, and fairly quickly get the owners on their way. The owners could return to the service centers after their trip and swap back for their original batteries. Difficult? IDK. Impossible? Nah.
If they're not in fact messing with the file name, could they plan to have ranger teams from service centers do field battery swaps on totally "empty" Model S's, perhaps using specially-modified flatbeds? That would obviate the need to take the cars somewhere to charge for hours, avoid tying up supercharger bays, and fairly quickly get the owners on their way. The owners could return to the service centers after their trip and swap back for their original batteries. Difficult? IDK. Impossible? Nah.
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