Wiki MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's probably a very different stack at this point, but we do have videos proving that it's possible for Tesla to overfit a small area. The test-drives given after Autonomy Day were probably only capable of driving that route:

Undoubtedly it’s possible to ensure that the vehicle is able to deal with and understand particular road markings on a particular route well, so it doesn’t fail or is less likely to. In addition to mapping being given high priority, etc.

I don’t doubt that with roads with particular marking types like in California, FSD gets a bit less confused on average because it is a better match to what it is supposed to recognize.

Note, however, that that is not what I’m talking about at all, when it comes to FSD quality, and what I would have expected Elon to “blow a gasket” about. Just a totally different topic.

I’m talking about the ability of FSD Beta to drive.

 

[JulienW]

Elon Musk has a long history of exaggerating progress and being too optimistic about timelines.....

I love what someone said about this and it sums it up for "both sides"

Elon is a bullshitter that delivers.

 

[JupiterMan]

When you first watch them (especially the first one), Tesla makes it sound like they have all these cool technologies and algorithms already up and running. But when you watch the second presentation, you see that the stuff talked about in the first presentation is now only starting to see the light of day. One can assume that all the cool, new stuff shown at this years presentation is probably a year or more away.

My take is that the first (autonomy) day was more theoretical and aspirational - after this they came up against some brick walls and had to change the approach to solve the problem, such as move to the vector space and vision only - for me AI day this year was much more polished and complete, with breakdowns of the individual nets, what they do and how they are trained.

You can see many of things from AI day in FSDBeta today.... the same cannot be said for Autonomy day in 2019.

Its like the jigsaw pieces are now in place, and it is now incremental improvements and training, lots of training... DoJo cannot come soon enough!

 

[ShockedMy21]

I wear my seat belt 99.999% of the time. As I backed out of my driveway this morning with my wife, we were going to try a full point to point FSD drive from home to my office. The seat belt warning chimed, and I thought, "yeah yeah give me a second to get the FSD going first". Nope! No FSD until you buckle up!

Also, when getting on the freeway there are two lanes, one of which designated for carpool (2+). The normal lane was backed up and the carpool lane wide open. At first FSD had us in the carpool lane, but at the last moment found a spot and switched over to the normal lane. I guess FSD doesn't take into account passengers and/or car pool lanes?

 

[mhan00]

Beta didn’t handle Hollywood Blvd very well, lol. Too hesitant with all the traffic and pedestrians causing too many abrupt stops early at traffic lights forcing me to quickly hit the go pedal briefly (happened twice in a row), so I just look over. Nothing really dangerous (ie risk of death or injury) if I didn’t intervene beyond possibly causing a fender bender if someone behind me was too close and didn’t expect an early stop, but I don’t want property damage either.

The weird glitch where Beta wants to get out of the proper lane in the opposite direction of an upcoming turn continues. I really have no idea what the decision making process is for lane placement to have it return that result, but it’s fairly frequent.

 

[BM3B]

It’s certainly true he is not using the public build (I think there are tweets from the past about how he’s running something slightly newer). But the idea that is somehow much different that what we have seems persistent here…and there’s never been any evidence that what Elon was currently running was way better than the public release at that time.

In my opinion, it’s very unlikely that there is some build out there that somehow fixes all the issues I have mentioned, with the compromise being safety. I just don’t think that is the tradeoff.



I haven’t seen any evidence that FSD Beta works this way. As far as I can tell it is choppy, lacking in smoothness, etc - everywhere, no matter how well “fitted” it is. I have not seen a single smooth performance in any video, no matter the location. Have to watch the speedometer very carefully - a sudden 3-4mph change in speed is an extremely rough ride. Also watch for appropriately linear reductions in speed during stops, and for the smoothness of the wheel as it turns.

Have you watched any videos shared by Elon or been in the car with him?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Have you watched any videos shared by Elon or been in the car with him?

Definitely not, other than the ones he responds to on Twitter. Do such videos exist?

 

[EVNow]

As public beta testers, we're testing software that is many iterations away from what Elon is driving on his car; most likely months behind.

In terms of features - probably. But not in terms of bug fixes.

For eg., I'm sure For Elon too the steering is jerky. He is just used to it - like some you tubers, who have come to expect that.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I assume that the FSD team works extremely hard to make sure his common route to work at Tesla in Fremont or SpaceX in Hawthorne are well tested and smoother. He should get in one of our cars and try it.

I just don’t believe the Fremont and SpaceX routes can be smoother than what we have unless they are deliberately making the public release not smooth to keep people alert (which is possible though seems like a lot of work…though maybe they just have some sliders they can adjust!).

It’s a lot easier to start with something correct and hobble it, than it is to go the other way, so this is possible. That being said, I still think it is pretty unlikely that they are deliberately altering the smoothness of the driving for the public release as some have suggested (facetiously I think).

 

[jebinc]

FSD should drive up “steering and brake parts sales” for Tesla, with all that jerkiness and hard braking going on! Hope it smooths out soon, but I’m not optimistic it will.

 

[EVNow]

What I find remarkable is that Elon claims to use FSD Beta on some drives - with “no interventions” at the recent shareholder meeting. Does his reality distortion field also extend into his own mind? How can he tolerate all these behaviors without constantly blowing a gasket? Why has he not insisted that the worst behaviors be fixed? It really makes me wonder! I know previously he said some earlier version was actually not very good…but still…he uses it! He has thousands of people who can do all this testing for him and spare him the unpleasantness…yet he uses it. All very odd.
I guess the obvious answer is that he uses it from time to time, just to check the status of development, but actually probably uses it very infrequently - and doesn’t talk about that part and all the problems very much. Meanwhile he clicks “like” on a few Whole Mars Catalog tweets, provides some comments about how awesome AI is, and the narrative continues!

I commented on this elsewhere - world's (known) richest man - driving an unstable FSD software, while people a hundred times less wealthy travel around in a limo cavalcade wherever they go. But people can be crazy. Like Steve Ballmer who used to drive an ordinary Ford (because his father used to work in Ford).

I'm sure Elon's "no interventions" drive from a friend's place to the Austin factory was an embellishment or the drive was short and had no problematic roads / junctions.

There is another reason people say "no interventions". They are comparing to earlier builds and think it has improved a lot and they can drive with (almost) "no interventions". Like Gali who went over a small round-about and claimed no interventions. If you don't intervene in places you should have - ofcourse there are no interventions !

 

[OK_3AWD]

FSD should drive up “steering and brake parts sales” for Tesla, with all that jerkiness and hard braking going on! Hope it smooths out soon, but I’m not optimistic it will.

Might as well order replacement brake pad, tie rod ends and bushings now. "FSD-fortified" suspension and brake parts could be a major business opportunity.

 

[EVNow]

I assume that the FSD team works extremely hard to make sure his common route to work at Tesla in Fremont or SpaceX in Hawthorne are well tested and smoother. He should get in one of our cars and try it.

Yes - I can understand if they have made sure the common drives that Elon takes (and in fact Karpathy or the other team leads in FSD take) work properly. There are unlikely to be perception issues on those routes or the planner getting confused.

But the jerkiness and some other things are probably quite common. I'm sure any round-about is equally bad (I've not seen a single round-about that the car handles confidently). But then I don't remember many round-abouts in Bay Area.

 

[MarcG]

I love what someone said about this and it sums it up for "both sides"

Elon is a bullshitter that delivers.

I would add “consistently behind schedule” to the end of that sentence.

 

[EVNow]

Elon Musk has a long history of exaggerating progress and being too optimistic about timelines. But this is part of being an entrepreneur. There is a grey zone between being a visionary and a fraudster, but to drive your team and the world around you, I believe you need to be a bit ahead of reality. There are multiple witnesses from inside Tesla on how Elon puts up goals his team members do not believe in, but then they work like crazy to reach them and almost do.

This is almost the standard operating procedure in the tech world.

Or more specifically the VC world in bay area. Elon is a product of that culture (and part of the so called "Paypal Mafia").

 

[Wlagrange]

I used the fsd beta to get to work today. Mostly 50-55 mph roads with stoplights. Overall better than expected based on some other user reports. I took over twice in a 10 mile trip, once on a protected left where there was construction and weird variations in the pavement that caused the steering to get squirrelly and another where there was a biker and the car wanted to leave the lane to give him room but there was a car close to my left so I didn’t want to take a chance.

I am guessing it would have been able to handle it based on other videos I’ve seen on YouTube but I didn’t want to chance it.

 

[aronth5]

I would add “consistently behind schedule” to the end of that sentence.

Don't disagree except "behind schedule" for Tesla is usually light years sooner then competitors so it's all relative.

 

[Bryan2001]

Ok, just got the beta invite email. I reached 100 yesterday around 8pm. Looks like this week....they are doing daily additions for those that have 100. Yesterday they added everyone that got it since the last wave.

I reached 100 on Monday and got invited email and downloading on Tues. night. I guess Tesla still send the invited email for newly 100 score users everyday.

 

[EVNow]

I would add “consistently behind schedule” to the end of that sentence.

I gave this example earlier ... The one a lot of people care about.

Forecast

Actual

 

[scottf200]

I think you're probably right. I stopped letting AP handle entrance merges a long time ago, and I'm only letting it do so now because I'm attempting end-to-end FSD drives. Given that Elon has repeatedly said AP identifies the physically drivable area beyond the lane lines, it's hard to understand why they have not programmed it to err on the right side of lanes at entrances. There's usually a lot of additional pavement to the right.

I think the behavior is different depending on whether the optional normal width dotted lines go to the solid line (see red box and arrow).