I have changed my mind about Canada estimates being a typo. I will go with the idea that this is about 200K US sales. There is an Electrek article about it
here. I hadn't realized that it shows mid-2018 for first production as well. It's not just AWD. That means the typo idea is much less likely. Also, Tesla would correct it quickly after the article if this was an error.
I previously reasoned that Canada wouldn't have enough takers (of LR+RWD+PUP) in order for it to make a difference in keeping Tesla below 200k U.S. deliveries for Q2. My current best estimate for Tesla at their current pace and predicted ramp-up is ~230k total U.S deliveries at end of Q2. Of those, ~36k would be Model 3 deliveries. 30k seems like way too many vehicles to "play games" with.
But significantly pushing up AWD changes that to enter the realm of possibility.
I have some spreadsheets where I looked at various scenarios working with these assumptions:
Estimated number of Canadian reservation holders: 42,000 - 50,000
% who want standard range: 42%
% who want long range: 58%
% who want AWD: 80%
% who want RWD: 20%
% who want PUP: 45%
% who want future performance edition: 13%
Using these numbers, you only get ~2k who really want the First Production vehicles. Then I assigned percentages on what % I thought would be willing to compromise on these to take earlier delivery (e.g., 20% - 35% of those who want standard range would take long range if they had to, maybe 20% for RWD vs AWD). That could potentially bump the number up to ~5k - 8k.
But if Tesla did the following, they can greatly increase those numbers to get into the neighborhood of 30k:
* Cut off U.S. Model 3 deliveries (probably to 5% - 10% of normal levels), redirecting to Canada
* Introduce and deliver AWD in Q2 in significant volume (adds 8k - 16k more Canadian customers)
* Offer non-PUP variants (adds probably another 3k - 5k Canadian takers)
The above combined with minor Model S/X redirections overseas and elevated levels of inventory stockpiling could keep them barely under 200k for end of Q2.
The motivation to do this is clear: Make sure you don't hit 200k until you've reached closer to 5k / week for Model 3 production to maximize the number of U.S. customers qualifying for the full tax credit. Customers qualifying for the full tax credit are more likely to pay for add-ons / options they wouldn't otherwise select without help from the tax credit. Should help margins signficantly.
