Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ariaga]

I believe (could be wrong) the author of model3tracker.info is a Canadian. If so, it's possible that website was better known in the Canadian community than elsewhere.

Another data point: Repercusión Mundial de TESLA: Análisis Palabra Clave Google did an analysis on google interest for "tesla model 3" and estimated 36k - 37k Canadian reservation holders based on their results, which is somewhere around 7% of the reservations.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

For what it is worth, my daily driver while I wait is a 30 year old car...

I sold my 26 yo ICE this past summer. However, I'm good waiting it out with a 2011 Leaf, 2015 70D, and four bicycles in the family. I've deferred until they have dual wheel drive and ANY interior besides black. Besides, I've will still got another 5 to 10 years of use out of the Leaf battery (in-town, 8 mi RT commute).

 

[insaneoctane]

Offering the $7500 (or $3750) of "free" money to tens of thousands of extra customers could increase margins significantly for Tesla, if you assume even a small percentage of those customers opt for upgrades they would not otherwise consider.
Diverting cars to Canada for a few weeks would not only help them accomplish this, but would also create a lot of goodwill and "buzz" for the Canadian market.

Not saying I'm expecting it, but it's not quite as clear cut as you're presenting it IMO.

I guess the good news is that we will all know soon. I've cast my opinion.

 

[S3XY]

Canadian owners are now seeing AWD for LR and SR estimates of Mid 2018, so if they will be sending them to Canada in Mid 2018 they would be ready for you Late 2018

Were these dates just changed or have they been this way for a while? I'm wondering if this was intentional or if Tesla forgot to update non-US delivery estimates.

 

[EVNow]

I have changed my mind about Canada estimates being a typo. I will go with the idea that this is about 200K US sales.

Wondering whether it is more about selling LR model 3s while everyone waits for SR. Unlike Model S, I expect most people to buy SR.

 

[flashflooder]

Wondering whether it is more about selling LR model 3s while everyone waits for SR. Unlike Model S, I expect most people to buy SR.

End result is the same. Delays the 200k trigger for another Quarter.

The fact that Canadian delivery estimates were bumped up seems like evidence that this is their plan. Don’t think it’s an oversight.

 

[TJtv]

But how???? We were at 162k at the start of the year. We will see 25k S/X in the next 6 months. That puts us at 187k. To extend the credit one extra quarter means they must deliver at most 13k Model 3 in the US over the next 6 months. They already delivered 2k since January 1st. That leaves just 11k Model 3 deliveries in the US for the next 5 months?

What makes you so certain we will see 25k s/x delivered in the us in first half of 2018? Just because they’ve been running those numbers in previous quarters does not mean they will continue to. They even made a point in their letter to state that they have shifted some of the resources on the s/x manufacturing lines towards producing model 3 and therefore they know that they will produce fewer s/x per quarter than they previously did. They also commented that this had a huge impact on reducing their outstanding inventory. It stands to reason that if they produce less then they will deliver less also.

They haven’t stated it, but they could also play with the geographical locations of s/x deliveries, shifting more to non-us countries in first half of 2018.

Those two things coupled together could cause them to deliver WAY fewer than 25k s/x in first half of 2018. At this point I’m thinking that it’s almost certain they will not deliver their 200kth us car until early q3.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Anyone who thinks Tesla will be able to play games and move their US delivery count past Q2 is misguided.

Were these dates just changed or have they been this way for a while? I'm wondering if this was intentional or if Tesla forgot to update non-US delivery estimates.

They were updated last night along with the US.

Just saw this Canadian non-owner estimate screenshot (check out the reservation date).

Please don't shoot the messenger.

 

[S3XY]

They were updated last night along with the US.

Just saw this Canadian non-owner estimate screenshot (check out the reservation date).

Please don't shoot the messenger.

View attachment 279013

I think most people would agree that Mar-May is still sooner than Mid 2018. Mid 2018 could be as late as August. So I think all of the US line standers will be invited prior to Canadian invitations. But April 1st and later reservations could very well see Canadians come before Americans.

 

[kengchang]

What makes you so certain we will see 25k s/x delivered in the us in first half of 2018? Just because they’ve been running those numbers in previous quarters does not mean they will continue to. They even made a point in their letter to state that they have shifted some of the resources on the s/x manufacturing lines towards producing model 3 and therefore they know that they will produce fewer s/x per quarter than they previously did. They also commented that this had a huge impact on reducing their outstanding inventory. It stands to reason that if they produce less then they will deliver less also.

They haven’t stated it, but they could also play with the geographical locations of s/x deliveries, shifting more to non-us countries in first half of 2018.

Those two things coupled together could cause them to deliver WAY fewer than 25k s/x in first half of 2018. At this point I’m thinking that it’s almost certain they will not deliver their 200kth us car until early q3.

They explicitly said 100K S/X going forward on 18650

 

[Sonny Daze]

I think most people would agree that Mar-May is still sooner than Mid 2018. Mid 2018 could be as late as August. So I think all of the US line standers will be invited prior to Canadian invitations. But April 1st and later reservations could very well see Canadians come before Americans.

I think most US customers now have Late 2018 for AWD (I know I do).

 

[EVNow]

For what it is worth, my daily driver while I wait is a 30 year old car...

Its one of the most difficult things to figure out - whether to drive an old car for x years or get an interim EV.

I decided to get an interim EV ... 6 years back

 

[Troy]

But how???? We were at 162k at the start of the year. We will see 25k S/X in the next 6 months. That puts us at 187k. To extend the credit one extra quarter means they must deliver at most 13k Model 3 in the US over the next 6 months. They already delivered 2k since January 1st. That leaves just 11k Model 3 deliveries in the US for the next 5 months?

We agree on the 162K and 187K assuming S/X sales continue as usual. That means they can sell maximum 13K Model 3s in the US starting Jan 1st. It looks like Q1 is going to be around 13K. That would mean they need to ship all Model 3s to Canada in Q2. A week ago, I posted the following numbers in this thread:

In 2017, Tesla sold 103,084 Model S/X globally and the Canadians bought 3,478 of them (source) which is 3.4%. I estimate 504,620 active reservations globally. 3.4% would be 17,157. However, Tesla can't ship 17,157 Model 3s to Canada because most of them want AWD.

The VIN estimates show 22K in Q2. I think it is possible that 5,000 people more in Canada could reserve a Model 3 if they can get the car by the end of Q2. Also, S/X sales could be slower than expected. January 2017 was 1,456 units in Europe. Jan 2018 looks like less than 800 units. We need VIN calculations for S/X.

 

[Troy]

Anyone who thinks Tesla will be able to play games and move their US delivery count past Q2 is misguided. The current forecasts put them squarely in the middle of Q2 and there is not any reasonable manipulation to stop that train. Every recent change that we've seen is aimed squarely at increasing margins and not rocking the ramp up. I would not encourage anyone to count on Q3 over Q2 for their planning...

I was thinking the same way until I realized that Canada estimates show mid-2018 for the current production as well (screenshot). I mean they are not only trying to deliver ~14K AWD cars to Canada but the ~3K RWD as well. That shows some serious dedication. That doesn't mean 200K US in early July 2018 instead of late April is going to happen but we should try to calculate how likely it is to succeed. We are back to optimistic scenario vs pessimistic scenario. I will look into this in detail.

 

[TEG]

I sold my 26 yo ICE this past summer. However, I'm good waiting it out with a 2011 Leaf, 2015 70D, and four bicycles in the family. I've deferred until they have dual wheel drive and ANY interior besides black. Besides, I've will still got another 5 to 10 years of use out of the Leaf battery (in-town, 8 mi RT commute).

Its one of the most difficult things to figure out - whether to drive an old car for x years or get an interim EV.
I decided to get an interim EV ... 6 years back

Off topic at this point... But yeah, I did that too - got one of the first LEAFs in 2011, and drove it until last year, but then my daughter took it, and I went to temporary car until 3 is available.

 

[Dr. J]

It's not just the Dual Motor configuration; the First Production is also available to us mid 2018.

 

[UZJedi]

• Non-owner
• Reserved online 20 min before reveal event on 3/31/16
• Live in Washington State
• Previous estimates were: Jan-Mar - First Production | Standard Battery - Early 2018 | Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive - Late 2018
• Current estimates are in the attached image.
  

 

[schonelucht]

The VIN estimates show 22K in Q2. I think it is possible that 5,000 people more in Canada could reserve a Model 3 if they can get the car by the end of Q2. Also, S/X sales could be slower than expected. January 2017 was 1,456 units in Europe. Jan 2018 looks like less than 800 units. We need VIN calculations for S/X.

So not only need we to conjecture up another 5000 buyers in Canada that are ready to order in a short time, we also need to assume none of the existing reservation holders and those new holders want to wait for the standard range battery (or any other option that's possibly not yet available by then like white interior etc). I don't see how that is a workable assumption.

A miss on the S/X could 'help' but it would have to be basically a fall of the cliff. I don't think that is very likely either. Tesla already gave guidance for sales to be slightly below 50k for the first 6 months and it needs the US to get there. Tesla also gave extra color that incoming orders last quarter stayed stable at an elevated level and that Model 3 availability (which will happed in the US over the coming weeks) again increased S/X orders. Besides, it needs to sell S/X to make the financials works

That leaves an epic Model 3 ramp miss as the only plausible scenario. I don't want to contemplate what it would mean if by the end of June Tesla is still at a level of let's say 1200/week. The worst part : if that's the case it won't even help that many American buyers because then the 'extra' quarter will not be a quarter of 5000/week but just a quarter where Tesla ramps to 2500 or so.

 

[deonb]

• Non-owner for second Model 3 (prior owner on first Model 3 - I'm picking that one up next week).
• Reserved in line morning of 3/31/16
• Live in Washington State
• Previous estimates were: Dec-Feb - First Production
• New estimates:

 

[Troy]

@schonelucht, how do you explain @Sonny Daze's screenshot a few messages above that shows mid-2018 in the first and third box for somebody in Canada who reserved in April 2017? Obviously, Tesla is going to try to make it work. My approach to this topic is data based. I will do more research and look at the numbers. Then I will add some percentages to the two scenarios below.

Pessimistic Scenario

• $7,500 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
• $1,875 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2019

Optimistic Scenario

• $7,500 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
• $3,750 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
• $1,875 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2019