Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Krash]

Hey Troy, mine's the same as hoang51's...

Mine too, only I am an owner with a 2017 reservation. Original estimate is above, new is below...

I assume everyone's account looks like this?
View attachment 278917

Yeah I get that too.​

 

[Foxhound199]

I assume everyone's account looks like this?
View attachment 278917

Yup, must be busy opening the configurator to everyone. /s

 

[Dr. J]

I assume everyone's account looks like this?
View attachment 278917

Incorrect. Very slow, but fully functional. (MyTesla)

 

[Shygar]

Incorrect. Very slow, but fully functional. (MyTesla)

Mine has looked like this since yesterday. Maybe it's related to my powerwall? Long as they don't erase my reservation

 

[Garlan Garner]

Come on.

Who's estimator figured out these new estimated delivery dates? Or the new estimated dates that will come out in May?

 

[TEG]

I have changed my mind about Canada estimates being a typo. I will go with the idea that this is about 200K US sales. There is an Electrek article about it here. I hadn't realized that it shows mid-2018 for first production as well. It's not just AWD. That means the typo idea is much less likely. Also, Tesla would correct it quickly after the article if this was an error.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Do you guys assume this to be correct? Or do you think Late 2018 date is just for LR AWD? And that the SR AWD will be even later?

Canadian owners are now seeing AWD for LR and SR estimates of Mid 2018, so if they will be sending them to Canada in Mid 2018 they would be ready for you Late 2018

 

[TEG]

Yet another reason to move to Canada...

 

[schonelucht]

I have changed my mind about Canada estimates being a typo. I will go with the idea that this is about 200K US sales.

But how???? We were at 162k at the start of the year. We will see 25k S/X in the next 6 months. That puts us at 187k. To extend the credit one extra quarter means they must deliver at most 13k Model 3 in the US over the next 6 months. They already delivered 2k since January 1st. That leaves just 11k Model 3 deliveries in the US for the next 5 months?

 

[Dr. J]

But how???? We were at 162k at the start of the year. We will see 25k S/X in the next 6 months. That puts us at 187k. To extend the credit one extra quarter means they must deliver at most 13k Model 3 in the US over the next 6 months. They already delivered 2k since January 1st. That leaves just 11k Model 3 deliveries in the US for the next 5 months?

How many would they have to ship to Canada to make that happen? Seems unlikely, but....

 

[ℬête Noire]

I previously reasoned that Canada wouldn't have enough takers (of LR+RWD+PUP) in order for it to make a difference in keeping Tesla below 200k U.S. deliveries for Q2. My current best estimate for Tesla at their current pace and predicted ramp-up is ~230k total U.S deliveries at end of Q2. Of those, ~36k would be Model 3 deliveries. 30k seems like way too many vehicles to "play games" with.

But significantly pushing up AWD changes that to enter the realm of possibility.

I have some spreadsheets where I looked at various scenarios working with these assumptions:

Estimated number of Canadian reservation holders: 42,000 - 50,000
% who want standard range: 42%
% who want long range: 58%
% who want AWD: 80%
% who want RWD: 20%
% who want PUP: 45%
% who want future performance edition: 13%

Using these numbers, you only get ~2k who really want the First Production vehicles. Then I assigned percentages on what % I thought would be willing to compromise on these to take earlier delivery (e.g., 20% - 35% of those who want standard range would take long range if they had to, maybe 20% for RWD vs AWD). That could potentially bump the number up to ~5k - 8k.

But if Tesla did the following, they can greatly increase those numbers to get into the neighborhood of 30k:

* Cut off U.S. Model 3 deliveries (probably to 5% - 10% of normal levels), redirecting to Canada
* Introduce and deliver AWD in Q2 in significant volume (adds 8k - 16k more Canadian customers)
* Offer non-PUP variants (adds probably another 3k - 5k Canadian takers)

The above combined with minor Model S/X redirections overseas and elevated levels of inventory stockpiling could keep them barely under 200k for end of Q2.

The motivation to do this is clear: Make sure you don't hit 200k until you've reached closer to 5k / week for Model 3 production to maximize the number of U.S. customers qualifying for the full tax credit. Customers qualifying for the full tax credit are more likely to pay for add-ons / options they wouldn't otherwise select without help from the tax credit. Should help margins signficantly.

One thing to keep in mind is that they are operating with in-house US delivery numbers, that should be nigh exact running totals compared to 3rd party estimates that have some margin of error to them. So they have a much better handle on whether they think they can hit it or not without tanking their own revenue as a side effect.

It's kinda funny, actually. When I was going through my tax session with my accountant this week he clearly hadn't filled out an 8936 before much less for a Chevy Bolt. When he went to confirm that the full rebate was still available for GM there was much head scratching on his part as the IRS didn't have any numbers on GM delivery numbers. Or Tesla. They did have several years of precise quarterly unit numbers for at least 3 other companies, but GM and Tesla weren't even listed in the table. Not sure why this is?

 

[ℬête Noire]

But how???? We were at 162k at the start of the year. We will see 25k S/X in the next 6 months. That puts us at 187k. To extend the credit one extra quarter means they must deliver at most 13k Model 3 in the US over the next 6 months. They already delivered 2k since January 1st. That leaves just 11k Model 3 deliveries in the US for the next 5 months?

Curiously, if you look at the InsideEV numbers they list only 800 Model S and 700 Model X deliveries for all of January. I know Jan 2017 was also a slow month but these estimates still have deliveries down y-o-y about 150 units. Maybe they are already trying to sandbag US sales a bit?

 

[insaneoctane]

Anyone who thinks Tesla will be able to play games and move their US delivery count past Q2 is misguided. The current forecasts put them squarely in the middle of Q2 and there is not any reasonable manipulation to stop that train. Every recent change that we've seen is aimed squarely at increasing margins and not rocking the ramp up. I would not encourage anyone to count on Q3 over Q2 for their planning...

 

[schonelucht]

Estimated number of Canadian reservation holders: 42,000 - 50,000

I don't think this is realistic. Canada makes up around 3-4% of Tesla's global sales. This suggest roughly 20,000 Canadian Model 3 reservations.

 

[ariaga]

Anyone who thinks Tesla will be able to play games and move their US delivery count past Q2 is misguided. The current forecasts put them squarely in the middle of Q2 and there is not any reasonable manipulation to stop that train. Every recent change that we've seen is aimed squarely at increasing margins and not rocking the ramp up. I would not encourage anyone to count on Q3 over Q2 for their planning...

How do you explain Tesla giving earlier AWD estimates for Canadian reservation holders vs. their US counterparts? Even if the American reserved earlier? And even when the Canadian previously had a later date compared to the American? To me that suggests either an error or intention to play games.

 

[ariaga]

I don't think this is realistic. Canada makes up around 3-4% of Tesla's global sales. This suggest roughly 20,000 Canadian Model 3 reservations.

It may not be realistic. But the number came from model3tracker.info which had Canada making up 9.85% of the global reservations. So either model3tracker.info isn't giving a good sample population, or the Model 3 is simply a much more appealing vehicle to Canadians compared to the Model S/X.

 

[flashflooder]

Anyone who thinks Tesla will be able to play games and move their US delivery count past Q2 is misguided. The current forecasts put them squarely in the middle of Q2 and there is not any reasonable manipulation to stop that train. Every recent change that we've seen is aimed squarely at increasing margins and not rocking the ramp up. I would not encourage anyone to count on Q3 over Q2 for their planning...

Offering the $7500 (or $3750) of "free" money to tens of thousands of extra customers could increase margins significantly for Tesla, if you assume even a small percentage of those customers opt for upgrades they would not otherwise consider.
Diverting cars to Canada for a few weeks would not only help them accomplish this, but would also create a lot of goodwill and "buzz" for the Canadian market.

Not saying I'm expecting it, but it's not quite as clear cut as you're presenting it IMO.

 

[schonelucht]

It may not be realistic. But the number came from model3tracker.info which had Canada making up 9.85% of the global reservations. So either model3tracker.info isn't giving a good sample population, or the Model 3 is simply a much more appealing vehicle to Canadians compared to the Model S/X.

I believe (could be wrong) the author of model3tracker.info is a Canadian. If so, it's possible that website was better known in the Canadian community than elsewhere.

 

[Kenypowa]

How do you explain Tesla giving earlier AWD estimates for Canadian reservation holders vs. their US counterparts? Even if the American reserved earlier? And even when the Canadian previously had a later date compared to the American? To me that suggests either an error or intention to play games.

It's not just the Dual Motor configuration; the First Production is also available to us mid 2018.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I believe (could be wrong) the author of model3tracker.info is a Canadian. If so, it's possible that website was better known in the Canadian community than elsewhere.

On the flip side, because of climate and geographical realities of distance, Canada is going to be a far more range sensitive market. Coupled to currency exchange rates it means the Model S/X prices as more of a barrier there to the economic motivated, so the Model 3 pricing (even with AWD) could very well have a much bigger impact on reaching market share past the Model S market. Keep in mind that gasoline pump prices are generally much higher in Canada, and often electricity prices are lowish compared to a lot of US markets.