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adurstewitz
P3853, VIN3062
Tesla has confirmed that mine, P#3853, will be delivered nov-dec. However, given that delivers for sig series are being scheduled for October I'm really starting to have my doubts. Fingers crossed for a 2012 delivery.
ModelS1079
Member
huntjo
Member
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
Actually it snowed on Pike's peak yesterday
That would be great if they tried a snow run. Here is a winter run up my driveway in Pagosa Springs, done in a 4WD pickup. Up the Driveway at Hole-in-the-Wall I plan on trying in the Model S this winter.
TheAustin
Model X 90D (Former Model S P85)
I'm P#2009, and was quoted the same delivery time-frame (November-December)... I would think that being 1800 cars ahead of you would bump me up slightly ahead of your delivery window. Or...My delivery window is accurate, and yours is a figment of their imagination. Either way, I'm trying to remain Zen. I made my reservation over two years ago...At one point earlier this year I was quoted a delivery window of "Late summer" and then "September-ish" and now November/December. Whatever it ends up being, it'll be here soon.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
They are the same thing. By that time Tesla should be producing 500+ cars per week if they are going to hit the 30k/year pace that was quoted in the last conference call. At that rate they would chew through 1800 cars in just over 3 weeks so "Nov/Dec" is accurate for both of you.
For context, in Elon's most recent interview his expectation was that they would build 80 cars this week, after building 40 last week. If they keep doubling according to the ramp schedule they'll be producing 500+ cars per week by around the first week of October. By early to mid October all of the Sigs should be built and regular production will start.
P2009 should come out by mid to late November and P3853 should be complete by early December, with the possibility of being done very late in November if Tesla gets ahead of the curve. Everyone has gotten used to all of the delays we had in July and early August, but we are now deep into the ramp up, with only a couple of weeks of doubling left.
Looking backwards, we can see that if there were 80 cars this week, 40 last week and (probably) 20 the week before, that accounts for 140 cars so far this month. At the end of August Tesla had completed ~100 cars, so that gives us ~240 by the end of this week, which tracks very nicely with what we know about VIN's.
Continued doubling will give us ~160 next week and ~320 in the last week of September which would mean ~720 units produced through Q3, though deliveries to customers will likely only be ~250-400 by that point. Maybe they can even hit 500 deliveries if they have enough West Coast Sigs that they can deliver quick enough. It's hard to tell based on the notifications we've seen so far, but 500 seems at least possible if not likely.
Anyways, this is why so many Sigs are getting October notifications in the last week. The rest of the Sigs should be completed within 3-4 weeks, which means the rest of the notifications (with a 30 day notice) will be happening in the next couple of weeks once you account for 2 weeks for final shipment and prep (i.e. for a car coming off the assembly line on Oct 15 the owner will be notified by the end of September for a late October delivery). My guess is that the bulk of the notifications are apt to come in the next week or so for Sigs and we'll start to see notifications for regular P numbers in the week after that.
A month has passed since last I talked to anyone at Tesla, so I thought a check-in on my delivery date was in order. The reply:
Today's weather: Sun with clouds and a chance of rain or snow. Temperatures between -40 and +100. Winds will be between 0 and 100 mph.
This of course makes me think of George Carlin...
Tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Yikes! Our cars might be on the same truck out of Fremont...and that "Mid-January" figure is scary!
Uhh. Tesla's line can produce, according to what they have said in the past, about 30,000 cars a year if they push it. That means they can make more than 1800, really 2,500 cars a month. Having those cars delivered in the same month window seems 100% doable.
Were you given an estimated delivery date before Mid-November on your MVPA? If not, I wouldn't have anticipated a contact regarding your delivery date before October or November with your sequence number. My understanding was that it was their hope to deliver the Sigs by the first of November.
DrComputer
TeslaClubLA President
I guess we (Roadster owners) should have expected this type of roll out and communication. They seem to be following the same dismal pattern they did with the Roadster. There was the first car released with a lot of fanfare (a la the June S release) and then no cars for many months after that. My car was one of the first 2.0s and it was delayed almost 2 months for some mysterious "dashboard clips" that they needed to complete it. I would have hoped that since the S was a production line built car and not a hand built very low volume car like the Roadster they would have gotten it right. But I guess old habits die hard.
My MVPA quotes Nov/Dec 2012; I have made no changes to my order. From my perspective, they've added a "downside" month to the back end of the timeframe. For tax reasons, I'm keen to place my vehicle in service by Dec. 31. (For reasons of enjoyment, I'm keen to place it into service now!)
I'm keen on getting mine in service now as well due to $4000 in car repairs and maintenance in the past two months... All ICE issues too!
Mycroft
Life happens
I've observed that the communication gene is seriously crippled in the Elon/George/Tesla DNA.
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