Wiki Model S Delivery Update

[droopaloop]

My order is identical except I have an RN1140.

Last October... Dang! I ordered in March and already have the shakes. Can you give us some tips on how to not lose your sanity while waiting that long? Maybe check this board less often

Looking at past reports it looks like they were averaging about 15k to 20k per quarter for S and X. Given the refresh, it seems safe to assume we are on the high end of that range. So at least 20k in the backlog given no shipments in Q1, and maybe closer to 40k by the end of Q2 if no significant deliveries are made.

Can Freemont chew through that backlog in 1 quarter? They are making well over 150k Model 3's and Y's per quarter. I would assume they would prioritize the higher-margin cars, but can they pump them out as fast as the 3's and Y's?

 

[gpnyc]

I am an RN1141 and live in Southern California. Ordered last October.
I am a "we will reach out to you" person with no month or date range.
Just curious where others live that have June or July as their delivery time period?
Even though I am super early on the "list", I have heard they deliver the end of quarter to Southern California.
So does this mean if they start delivery in July, I will have to wait until September (end of Q3) to get my car? Even though I ordered it in October?
- Signed a frustrated 1st Tesla buyer

I live on the East Coast, placed my order in mid-January (pre-refresh) and confirmed it in February after the refresh announcement. MS Plaid, blue exterior, white interior.
I have also had a "we will reach out to you" message from the start with no month or date range.
I reached out to my Tesla rep last week, and he said they were hearing June, and they expected given my order timing that I was toward the front of the line.
Hope this helps.

 

[dlfjed]

For those who said the lack of communication would hurt Tesla, 3 out of 4 highlights at elektrek seems to support your position. Lot of competition entering market and taking a better share than previously thought. Does Tesla make mopeds yet? .

 

[Hayseed_MS]

For those who said the lack of communication would hurt Tesla, 3 out of 4 highlights at elektrek seems to support your position. Lot of competition entering market and taking a better share than previously thought. Does Tesla make mopeds yet? .

What is the 1/4 mile on that moped?

 

[Drew-MS]

Maybe the performance in real world testing fell short of the claimed performance on the website. But they probably wouldn’t have to do this testing at Laguna Seca so I’m lost.
Edit: or maybe they’re done testing and they want to show us a truly amazing new time, like 1:28..

Maybe someone at Tesla read one of my prior posts questioning the performance.
“Hey Elon, someone on TMC is talking Sh*t about the plaid, saying the car took 6 seconds to do 60-130.”
Elon: “well let’s get the car back to Laguna Seca, now that it’s ready and let’s make some new record times”.

 

[james912]

Lucid air release candidate. Not bad for their first car but I prefer the S.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384877080760946690

 

[Drew-MS]

Lucid air release candidate. Not bad for their first car but I prefer the S.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384877080760946690

Not gonna lie, if that car was available right now, I’d give it a go.

 

[dlfjed]

Last October... Dang! I ordered in March and already have the shakes. Can you give us some tips on how to not lose your sanity while waiting that long? Maybe check this board less often

Looking at past reports it looks like they were averaging about 15k to 20k per quarter for S and X. Given the refresh, it seems safe to assume we are on the high end of that range. So at least 20k in the backlog given no shipments in Q1, and maybe closer to 40k by the end of Q2 if no significant deliveries are made.

Can Freemont chew through that backlog in 1 quarter? They are making well over 150k Model 3's and Y's per quarter. I would assume they would prioritize the higher-margin cars, but can they pump them out as fast as the 3's and Y's?

Hang around here for the entertainment. Complain a little, not to much or we get way off topic.
I think someone here said 2000 a week with one shift and they may be adding a second shift. With Tesla everything is a priority except communication. Ok ok that’s it no more complaints from me until late next week or the following week.

 

[NickEHughes]

Not gonna lie, if that car was available right now, I’d give it a go.

So would I.

 

[TrevTremaine]

What is the 1/4 mile on that moped?

About it's full range on full throttle?

 

[james912]

Not gonna lie, if that car was available right now, I’d give it a go.

That car is definitely a car to keep an eye on but not when they first release it. We know first iterations are going to have some type of issues and the software might have some bugs that need to be ironed out over time. After 2-3 years I could see people going from Tesla to lucid if everything is on par with Tesla by then. They have a really talented team at lucid it’s just about them putting the product out and addressing the issues that’ll come up after release

 

[eipi10]

I do wonder if the changes are more or less all "under the hood" - as we have seen ~a dozen prototypes, but no one has noticed anything out of the ordinary.

Of course, a slightly different diffuser or side view mirror could be done in such a way that it would be hard to compare. But I think if they are track testing it - most certainly the underneath components are involved.

It seems to me like there should be a “correct” aerodynamic shape for cars such that you wouldn’t expect it to change.

 

[Drew-MS]

That car is definitely a car to keep an eye on but not when they first release it. We know first iterations are going to have some type of issues and the software might have some bugs that need to be ironed out over time. After 2-3 years I could see people going from Tesla to lucid if everything is on par with Tesla by then. They have a really talented team at lucid it’s just about them putting the product out and addressing the issues that’ll come up after release

I meant I’d go with it if it was available now while Tesla is still figuring out the refresh. If the plaid and lucid were both available, I’d hands down take the plaid. I’m just not a patient person.

 

[aerodyne]

I don't think they are that far away--the basic bones of the car are there--the mules are all consistent in shape and design. I think they are tweaking things like reducing Cd, maybe playing with programing for things like acceleration, regeneration, suspension, battery cooling, etc. Elon's tweet about lots of little things to tweak was probably more spot on than we realized.

Software and hardware tweaks should not take this long.

IMO, they were surprised by the EQS range and are trying their best to beat it without making substantial changed to the car.

This is a risky course of action as they may mess up a good design, meanwhile, EQS production is getting closer every day making a switch is tempting for some...

I am sure Elon's ego is driving the boat, not sound business practice...

 

[james912]

I meant I’d go with it if it was available now while Tesla is still figuring out the refresh. If the plaid and lucid were both available, I’d hands down take the plaid. I’m just not a patient person.

Hahaha I’m with you man. I have zero patience. I’ve been keeping myself busy with the m3p I just got 3 weeks ago but that doesn’t stop me from checking my Tesla page and the forums multiple times a day. What makes the anticipation worse is we don’t know when to expect the cars or what the final build will look like. We’re also in the first group of would be refresh owners so in a way, we all even if subconsciously can’t wait to show off our new cars lol

 

[james912]

Software and hardware tweaks should not take this long.

IMO, they were surprised by the EQS range and are trying their best to beat it without making substantial changed to the car.

This is a risky course of action as they may mess up a good design, meanwhile, EQS production is getting closer every day making a switch is tempting for some...

I am sure Elon's ego is driving the boat, not sound business practice...

Unless if Elon had a mole inside of Mercedes he had no way of knowing any details of the eqs. The cars should’ve been built in February long before the eqs was announced so the holdup probably doesn’t have anything to do with another manufacturer but something either hardware or software related. I posted earlier it could be software related, some people might agree some might disagree but none of us know. The only assumptions we could make is during earnings Elon could give us the update we’ve been waiting for. Like many of the guys here the constant monthly credit application and having to resubmit trade ins is adding to the frustration. Since my original trade in for my BMW m5 Tesla has decreased my trade in by a couple grand. I could only imagine what others are experiencing with there accounts and trade ins as they wait for the S

 

[aerodyne]

It seems to me like there should be a “correct” aerodynamic shape for cars such that you wouldn’t expect it to change.

It will change based on geometry, such as wheel base and height.

Worth noting the oft touted Cd is not really important. The CD is based on a reference area. For cars it is generally the frontal area. A big car could have a low Cd and still have more drag than a smaller car.

What is really important is the actual drag at highway speeds.

I suspect the wider refresh needed for the trimotor has increased both the reference area and drag coefficient, and they are trying to get a handle on it with all the mules doing real world testing on various software tweaks.

 

[aerodyne]

Unless if Elon had a mole inside of Mercedes he had no way of knowing any details of the eqs. The cars should’ve been built in February long before the eqs was announced so the holdup probably doesn’t have anything to do with another manufacturer but something either hardware or software related. I posted earlier it could be software related, some people might agree some might disagree but none of us know. The only assumptions we could make is during earnings Elon could give us the update we’ve been waiting for. Like many of the guys here the constant monthly credit application and having to resubmit trade ins is adding to the frustration. Since my original trade in for my BMW m5 Tesla has decreased my trade in by a couple grand. I could only imagine what others are experiencing with there accounts and trade ins as they wait for the S

Plenty of ways to estimate a vehicles performance based on renderings and such. You don't need a mole in Mercedes engineering.

 

[Hayseed_MS]

Plenty of ways to estimate a vehicles performance based on renderings and such. You don't need a mole in Mercedes engineering.

The best way to estimate a vehicle's performance is to go on a forum like this one and listen to all the experts...

 

[T-Racer]

Plenty of ways to estimate a vehicles performance based on renderings and such. You don't need a mole in Mercedes engineering.

Hi @aerodyne, good to see you still here, but curious what keeps you coming back given you cancelled your order? I was under the impression my dependency on this site would go away once I either got delivery or cancelled?