Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Mrbrock]

My understanding is that the structural battery allows about a 20% higher packing density. '4680' pack is shorthand for structural battery. The weight savings is expected with a structural battery.

Second, I do expect faster charging from a 4680 cell than from 2170 cell due to better heat dissipation. It is this performance characteristic I was thinking of when I said that 4680 packs can command a price premium.

Lastly,
If it is true that 4680 structural packs have a 20% packing advantage over current 2170 designs, and current 2170 cell packs in the LR are 330 EPA miles, then Tesla could produce a 330*1.2 = 396 EPA mile XLR Model Y in a 4680 structural pack design.

Maybe they peak charge for 2 more minutes before tapering? Shaving 5 minutea off a 10-90 charge? Eh… $215/mile vs $191/mile. Is 3-5 minutes saved per charge worth an 8% price increase on a per mile of range basis?

Are you paying attention to the thread and what is being produced from Austin? Or are you stuck believing all the battery day hype still? Please step away from battery day. Here is the reality of 4680. A 69kwh 279 mile range Model Y with 4680 that is only 50 lbs lighter than a 82kwh 330 mile range 2170 model Y. You are expecting to go from 279 miles to 396 miles (a 117 mile/42% increase) with 20% denser cell packing? That can’t be done because it is already 4680 based.

Please read the rest of my post above (that you quoted the first paragraph). The math is simple. Based on what Tesla is preparing to sell (as many as they can produce), you’d need over 100kwh of 4680 to get your 400 miles of range. There is additional weight with 4680 so the cells may be packed closer but there is more weight somewhere (thicker walls needed for structure, more cooling, cells not as energy dense as predicted). The information is there. It is readily accessible. Please stop ignoring it.

Same… The only thing I can see going for the 4680 SR is if it can charge 2X as fast as the 2170. Otherwise it’s a terrible deal.

Doubtful. Going from 150 to 250 didn’t cut times by 40%. It’s all about ramps and tapers. It may peak for longer but once the cell is hot, it will take more to cool it. Which means keeping speeds in check.

The new SR has 279ish range. The old SR I belive was 245ish. About 14% more range. So the new LR could potentially have about 375ish range. I could be wrong obviously

Very wrong. The old SR was single motor RWD with a 50kwh battery pack. This is a Dual Motor AWD Standard Model Y with a 69kwh pack. SR RWD is 4.88 mi/kwh, LR AWD is 4.02 mi/kwh and SR AWD is 4.04. But the relation between additional batteries and addition range is no linear due to added weight.

 

[Terminator857]

I don't think you understand the argument.

I'm not saying anything about how hard it is to remove cells from a pack (although I assume you know that you can't just plug a 2170 into where a 4680 would go). I'm saying that since the supply of 4680's is severely constrained, Tesla can ship MORE new cars from the Texas plant by using fewer 4680 cells per pack in the near term.

Someone suggested only shipping short range Model Y's and you said that was dumb because what would happen with all the 2170s in production.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Someone suggested only shipping short range Model Y's and you said that was dumb because what would happen with all the 2170s in production.

I said no such thing. Someone suggested making 4680 MYLR cars and I argued that the best use of the limited supply of THOSE cells was to make a larger number of SR cars.

There are no similar constraints on 2170 cell supply, so the entire argument falls apart if you take it that direction.

 

[Terminator857]

I said no such thing.

Yeah, that makes total sense. Abandon all the 2170 batteries they're pumping out by the millions and point their highest volume car at the new tech which has a few hundred cars worth of supply.... yeah - do that! Tomorrow! It'll totally be cool!

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Yep - if you read it I'm saying it's stupid to not use all the 2170's they can since there's no constraint on them. MYLR 2170 isn't limited by battery supply. 4680 MYLR is.

Can we move on now since we appear to agree other than ability to parse wording?

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

So I understand why the MYSR would be $60k and a MYLR is $63K

A replacement Battery pack on a MY goes for $15K The SR only has 15% less range then the LR. Ignore the fact that a 4680 is cheaper to manufacturer its about a $2500 difference in price based upon the range . So a SR Buyer is paying around what they would comparatively based upon battery capacity but Tesla is making more off of them because the 4680 is cheaper to manufacturer.

Knowing this, I really don't understand why they bothered adding a SR. They are charging the same thing based upon capacity so its unclear why they just wouldn't do a LR and be done with it instead of having multiple models with a small capacity difference.

 

[Polymer]

Are you paying attention to the thread and what is being produced from Austin? Or are you stuck believing all the battery day hype still? Please step away from battery day. Here is the reality of 4680. A 69kwh 279 mile range Model Y with 4680 that is only 50 lbs lighter than a 82kwh 330 mile range 2170 model Y. You are expecting to go from 279 miles to 396 miles (a 117 mile/42% increase) with 20% denser cell packing? That can’t be done because it is already 4680 based.

Please read the rest of my post above (that you quoted the first paragraph). The math is simple. Based on what Tesla is preparing to sell (as many as they can produce), you’d need over 100kwh of 4680 to get your 400 miles of range. There is additional weight with 4680 so the cells may be packed closer but there is more weight somewhere (thicker walls needed for structure, more cooling, cells not as energy dense as predicted). The information is there. It is readily accessible. Please stop ignoring it.

You're making some bad assumptions as if the weighting is in proportion....and you don't know that yet at least as far as saying the 4680 will be heavier...we just don't know that yet. It could be upfront there is a fixed added weight.

Although it does seem clear that either the 4680/structural battery pack isn't going to save weight...or they've intentionally nerfed the SR....or maybe had to do something for added stability...either way, doesn't feel like an LR or P with 4680 is going to save the 400ish lbs people thought it might..although who knows...

 

[Andrew Smith]

Design Studio hints the Tesla Mobile Connector is no longer included with new vehicles​

Not sure, if this is just for MY SR cars or applies to all the cars moving forward.

 

[BGOwner]

Same… The only thing I can see going for the 4680 SR is if it can charge 2X as fast as the 2170. Otherwise it’s a terrible deal.

But it has a privacy cover

 

[goin2drt]

Where is this MYSR for $60K? I went to the website and nothing is listed. So folks are comparing a car that isn't even listed and available to cars that are currently listed at a price that may not even be the price when the MYSR even becomes available. Oh yeah and all the speculation about the 4680. Allow me to remind folks there are still ZERO facts about the charging times, TOTAL weight, cost etc etc etc etc.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Where is this MYSR for $60K? I went to the website and nothing is listed. So folks are comparing a car that isn't even listed and available to cars that are currently listed at a price that may not even be the price when the MYSR even becomes available. Oh yeah and all the speculation about the 4680. Allow me to remind folks there are still ZERO facts about the charging times, TOTAL weight, cost etc etc etc etc.

It came from Rob Maurer's last video

 

[goin2drt]

It came from Rob Maurer's last video

Got it so another youtuber like the rest that have ZERO facts and have been wrong more than right over the last 8 months on speculations about Austin.

Check..I will wait until we actually see it on the website and then when one actually gets delivered to a customer.

 

[bkp_duke]

Got it so another youtuber like the rest that have ZERO facts and have been wrong more than right over the last 8 months on speculations about Austin.

Check..I will wait until we actually see it on the website and then when one actually gets delivered to a customer.

Rob's track record is better than any other Tesla Analyst (and he does have a finance background), and better than anyone here.

Be careful who you try to call out, Rob's record is impeccable and even Elon has given him props for his analysis.

 

[Threader]

Design Studio hints the Tesla Mobile Connector is no longer included with new vehicles​

Not sure, if this is just for MY SR cars or applies to all the cars moving forward.

current Online Model Y owners manual states "In most market regions, Model Y is equipped with a Mobile Connector and the adapter(s) needed to plug into the most commonly used power outlets. "

 

[BGOwner]

Got it so another youtuber like the rest that have ZERO facts and have been wrong more than right over the last 8 months on speculations about Austin.

Check..I will wait until we actually see it on the website and then when one actually gets delivered to a customer.

Here is an article on it. Tesla Model Y Standard Range AWD to be priced at $59,990 USD, set to launch in the coming weeks

 

[boulder.dude]

What actually is a “magnetic center console?” The MY AWD stuff talks about it without providing details.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

What actually is a “magnetic center console?” The MY AWD stuff talks about it without providing details.

the arm rest

 

[cons220]

As best we understand, the 4680 is still on NMC chemistry - the same as other model Y's. So no - we don't expect it to act like LFP

How can we be so sure?

“structural battery pack
4680-type cylindrical battery cells (undisclosed chemistry)”

Report: Made-in-Texas Tesla Model Y Starts At $59,990

According to new reports, Tesla will offer the first Made-in-Texas Model Y cars at a price of $59,990 (USD).

insideevs.com

It seems they don’t even know enough to report.

 

[voip-ninja]

So I understand why the MYSR would be $60k and a MYLR is $63K

A replacement Battery pack on a MY goes for $15K The SR only has 15% less range then the LR. Ignore the fact that a 4680 is cheaper to manufacturer its about a $2500 difference in price based upon the range . So a SR Buyer is paying around what they would comparatively based upon battery capacity but Tesla is making more off of them because the 4680 is cheaper to manufacturer.

Knowing this, I really don't understand why they bothered adding a SR. They are charging the same thing based upon capacity so its unclear why they just wouldn't do a LR and be done with it instead of having multiple models with a small capacity difference.

The explanation that makes the most sense is that they are constrained by 4680 cell production. If they can sell 100 SR cars compared to 80 LR cars and they have enough parts and demand to sell the 100 shorter range cars it makes sense. Eventually when 4680 cell production increases they might eliminate the SR variant entirely.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

The explanation that makes the most sense is that they are constrained by 4680 cell production. If they can sell 100 SR cars compared to 80 LR cars and they have enough parts and demand to sell the 100 shorter range cars it makes sense. Eventually when 4680 cell production increases they might eliminate the SR variant entirely.

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.